Dear
Goldonomic,
Again
thanks for your update. Last weeks have been full of contradictory
news from both official and unofficial sources. To make one and
other more clear could you please give you're opinion (or objective
information) about the following:
1. How
will de credit default swap market affect the euro? Which quantity
of CDS are expressed in euro?
2. How and
when will the ECB start to take the desperate measures the Fed is
taking?
3. In
addition to the above, is it worth still holding on the Euro?
4. Will
Euro property (real estate) further decline in real numbers?
5. Can you
recommend any shares in agricultural, solar, wind, nuclear, aqua
framing, etc... related topics
Regards,
Tom
Note: few
days ago my bank recommended buying bonds issued by good rated
European companies. During three years a yearly return of nearly
6%. I don't understand why these companies do not go straight to the
banks for money keeping in mind the ever lowering interests rates. |
Dear Tom,
The Authorities, Media
and many financial analysts (Bankers) simply DO NOT UNDERSTAND what is
happening right now. Hence the confusion of the media.
Q. How will
de CDS market affect the Euro?
A. This is not an easy
question to answer. It needs some reflection and study work. Important to
know is that the bulk of CDS were issued by American financial
institutions (correct me if I am wrong) and that they are an "insurance
policy”. As the bank (AIG) or the company runs into problems, the bonds
which they insured, also run into trouble; their rating (from AAA to B)
comes down and this has other implications (Basel norms - see web site).
Important however is to understand that in order to avoid lower Moody
ratings (for example), the authorities will bail out ALL financial
institutions which are/were issuing CDO's and this means more quantitative
easing and monetary inflation.
At this point, I have
no clue how much CDO's were issued by EU institutions...
Q. How and
when will the ECB start to take these desperate measures like the FED?
Nor the ECB, nor the
FED UNDERSTAND what is happening (sorry guys). They are behaving like
pilots who got behind the airplane on an IFR (instrument) approach. In
other words, they try to correct the symptoms instead of healing the
illness. By doing this, they make it all a lot worse.
The ECB and local
reserve banks are already taking the some similar desperate measures (see
our web site days ago). Only the ECB is a lot more secretive than the
transparent USA. The problems the USA has are far WORSE than these of the
ECB: the American debt is larger and the Dollar is (still) a reserve
currency. Being a reserve currency and held all over the world, at some
point it will be dumped as confidence in this over indebted currency
disappears. Even worse is that we shall come a point where they refuse to
finance the American deficit. This is why the Fed announced that they
would buy $ 300 bn long term debt!!! In other words, they are financing
their own debt.
What we are about to
see, is a battle for the cheapest currency [remember the Swiss last
week!?] as the authorities try to make exports cheaper. This won't solve
the problem because there is nothing left to export [remember Made in
China!?].
Q. Is it
still worth holding the Euro?
Buying Dollars now
would really be suicidal. The Euro is just like the Dollar, the Swiss
Franc, the Sterling and the Zimdollar nothing but Fiat Paper money. As the
battle for survival gets worse, the EU has because of its diversity a
handicap versus the USA where one party can decide. Hence short tem (until
the ECB starts to intervene on the Forex markets) it is better to hold on
the Euro's. But remember that Gold is the ONLY REAL MONEY!
Q. Will Real
Estate property further decline in Real Terms?
During a depression,
the price of HOCG [high order capital goods] comes down and the price of
LOCG [low order consumer goods] goes up. The depression will last until
ALL of the misallocated funds are washed out of the system. We had this
Real Estate bubble because of misallocated funds and abnormal low interest
rates. The Real Estate crisis has just began in the EU. It lags upon the
American cycle. Prices will fall until the base where the parabolic rise
started (see chart on the site/Real Estate). Only when hyperinflation
kicks in, will the price of Real Estate go up again in NOMINAL terms...not
in REAL TERMS as long as supply is larger than demand.
Q. Can you
recommend any shares in agricultural, solar, wind, nuclear, aqua framing,
etc...related topics?
There are several
shares listed on the web site. Apart from Gold and silver mines, we think
off Oil shares and we have more under Crisis investing II [I believe]. GE
(general electric) could be bought for $ 5 and there are many others...
Q. A few days
ago my bank recommended buying bonds from solid European companies.
How is it possible
people still trust these crooked idiots? Only a year ago they also called
FORTIS a fundamentally healthy "Pater de Familia" company. People
tend to forget fast....too fast...
The Banks are the
origin of the mess we are in! Haven't you read what is published on the
site about Bonds? STOP chasing interest rates and seek SECURITY. Bonds are
also Fiat Paper money. Once hyperinflation kicks in, interest rates will
soar and not only will hyperinflation inflate the value of the bonds away,
but the soaring interest rates will crash the market value of the Bonds.
This is an absolute LOSS-LOSS situation.
Your question
under NOTE: if you don't understand something or an investment
instrument, simply DON'T TOUCH or DO it.
This ain't a time to trust a
Banker, on the contrary. Haven't you had enough lessons?
Goldonomic, Florida, USA -
+1
(772)-905-2491 |