Thursday June 30, 2011 - The Greater Depression is Now: the Middle East is in flames, Japan is offline, Europe is growing desperate and the U.S. situation is far worse than anyone in Washington is willing to admit.

Do you see any difference between Syria, Libya, Egypt and Greece? Molotov cocktails, stones, tear gas, riots, police and army men (you can be so proud to be a police officer or private!) beating their own people. A foretaste of what is to happen in Portugal, Spain, Ireland, France, Belgium and the USA. (I am sure I forgot some)

This is the result of decennia of robbery by Authorities and Banksters and the resulting vicious circle is so well explained by Jim's Formula. We are about to see the last act...and it won't be a happy ending. Thank you mister President, thank you mister Prime Minister, thank you Governor, thank you Senator, thank you Bankster,...People mocking the Greek clearly don't understand that they are standing next in the line! Having said this, the only thing we can blame the Greek population for is that they did not stand up to Greek and European Authorities BEFORE the introduction of the Euro. To be honest I can even forgive The People for the EU and the Euro was nothing more than a "Coup d' Etat". There is not the slightest doubt that from now on things will only get worse on both sides of the pond.

• Investors in the US government bond market could face losses of up to $100bn if the USA loses its triple AAA rating. Those who invested into safe Greek Government bonds (mostly large Bankers but also pension funds, insurance co's and private investors) lost about 80% in less than one year. Politicians will never allow that the rating agencies down grade the USA but the time is close where those who did invest in US Treasuries (money market funds) will curse the day they purchased them.

• Strategic U.S. Oil release came at the same time where the minimum margin requirements for Silver futures were increased. The action however was as expected unable to break the secular uptrend line. I expect that open and hidden interventions will have an increasing lower effect.

• At a time where Greek problems decorate the front pages of the Media, everybody seems to forget about the miserably financial situation the USA is in.  The Point and Figures chart of the Dollar/Euro (which is published on today's opening page) however doesn't spell a lot of good for the dollar....Few have noticed the fact that the Euro is staying so strong at a time called critical by the Talking Heads and such doesn't spell a lot of good for the US Dollar.

• WASHINGTON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund is urging U.S. lawmakers to raise the nation's borrowing limit. It warns that inaction could lead to a spike in interest rates that would harm the U.S. economy and world financial markets...more

• Don't forget URANIUM. I see a lot of  buyers coming in. A good time to average the cost of your positions!? And not only Uranium is hot, Natural Gas and Coal show a nice steady staircase uptrend....at a time when energy mostly top out and prepare for a Summer correction we as a matter of fact see exactly the opposite happening.  Similar bullish technical patterns and divergences for Copper and Agriculturals. This is a bullish indication for Gold, Silver and a bearish one for the Dollar. The price impact of the sale of strategic reserves seems to have come to an end as Crude Oil is bouncing off its 200 day Moving Average.

• See how the HUI (Gold bugs index) bounced right off the 27 year old support line! Our candle chart of June 16 was right on.

• Many investors fail to understand the mechanism of communicating financial vessels and the fact that it is liquidity pushing up the markets...The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 145 points, or 1.2%, to 12,189, the S&P 500 rallied 16.6 points, or 1.3%, to 1,297 and the NASDAQ Composite climbed 41 points, or 1.5%, to 2,729.

Wednesday June 29, 2011 - Only God can create something out of nothing and fractional reserve banking hold its proper destruction within itself. Fractional Reserve banking is modern slavery.

Or how you have the option to hold on to DEBT/FIAT money and be an enslaved looser or put your savings into Gold/Silver and be safe. The video clip also provides more information on the role of central banks, Globalism, terrorism and wars. (thanks to RP)

This video explains in a extremely clear way how money is created through fractional reserve banking and what the end game will be. We only don't know when it will collapse...but collapse it will!

This video discusses clean energy and the future means of transportation and how society can and will change for the better in the future. The clip makes me think of Jules Verne and gives us a glimpse of the live of our Grand-Children without servitude, money and debt. To be watched all the way to the end!...a resource based global economy without state...

Tuesday June 28, 2011 - The Authorities don't even have a plan to repay the Public Debt...

• The Authorities are not ready to give up the EU nor the Euro nor are they prepared to clean out and heal the system by letting the Banks go bankrupt. Instead they will print money and print money and roll over the debt they are responsible for until it all blows up in their face and we have a Hyperinflationary depression. " We concluded that by stretching out the loans over 30 years, putting (interest rates) at the level of European loans, plus a premium indexed to future Greek growth, that would be a system that each country could find attractive," he said (Sarkozy). The new bonds would be placed in a Special Purpose Vehicle, effectively removing Greek debt from the balance sheets of participating banks, the source said. Banks would hold equity in the SPV instead. By doing this the Authorities eliminate the ability of the savers to punish the Authorities for their mismanagement and continue to destroy Society...more

• Similar action is seen in the USA where the Authorities are buying Municipal debt and Treasuries. What we see on both sides of the pond is monetization of debt. Monetization of Debt is the detonator for Hyperinflation. The general level of prices will now continue to rise until the point where the Herd realizes it will only get worse and Hyperinflation starts to be part of our daily live.

Monday June 27, 2011: We’re doomed on both sides of the Atlantic because of some narcissist lunatic politicians responsible for this global mess—especially the EU and the IMF.

• A good example of High Order Capital Goods and stocks you don't want to be in during the coming hyperinflationary depression, is BEST BUY. The company is considerable sizing down. [City circuit had to close down last year]

• Europe agrees to a re-instauration of border controls between member countries. The end of the EU is near and immigrants come in handy!

• Did you notice that with all the Greek problems the US Dollar has failed to take off!? We merely see some kind of  extended correction.  Greece and Lehman Bros can be compared in size. When one start to look at California, Illinois and other American states, the problem is majestic.

• The Gold and Silver sector is traditionally weak during the Summer months. This year however I still think we may have seen the bottom in the week of June 13 and that hence Gold can resume its bull run during the next weeks. Having said this, Why sell gold in a debt crisis? Use rallies in the dollar to exit the dollar, not to buy more dollars. Buy the metal and hold the metal. Gold has nearly doubled while gold stocks are flat. Generally speaking these gold companies have very healthy balance sheets and the product they mine is up 70% in three years, while their stocks prices have gone nowhere. That is an enormous buy signal!  

• Oil traditionally peaks this time of the year, hence it is extremely weird to see that Authorities still feel it is necessary to release oil stock piles. Our charts don't see any serious correction of the Oil price.  Is there something else happening?...more

• Do you really want to be part of these? Authorities are attempting to go turn the prudent Europeans of the north into permanent tax slaves in order to bail out the big banks in France and Germany and elsewhere who don't deserve a bailout.

• Swiss frank and Aussie are riding the bull wave. Both fiat currencies are an excellent alternate for the Euro, the US Dollar and the British Pound. Certain Swiss stocks

Friday June 24, 2011 - Public Workers benefits cut in New York...same story on both sides of the Atlantic

• European Authorities and Central banks ask Banks to PLEASE roll over Greek debt and to PLEASE grant Greece new loans. As a matter of fact, they have become so involved that they have no way back. We've landed in a situation where the DEBTOR (Greece) rules instead of the Creditor (BANKS).

• More taxation and more regulation is not the answer to the debt problems. It never was and never will be. As a matter of fact, exactly the opposite should be done...but such would be suicidal for Government. Dramatic is that Bankers and Authorities have maneuvered themselves in a deadlock and that it has become impossible to solve the problem without a financial debacle. Quantitative Easing is what keeps the Bond Markets alive, QE keeps the stock markets alive, QE keeps the Banks alive, QE keeps the Real Estate prices alive, ....there is NO WAY the Authorities will and can mop up all the fiat money and because each additional created unit of fiat money has an exponential falling effect we shall see QE to infinity. This is until we have Hyperinflation.

Jim's scenario is exactly what is unfolding now:
 

1.      First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.

2.      This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella - Goldilocks situations.

3.      We have witnessed the Stock Markets rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the markets fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red. (November 2008)

4.      The formula economically is inherent in #2, which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.

5.      Lower profits leads to lower National/Federal Tax revenues.

6.      Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased National/Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the National/ Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities.

7.      The increased  Budget deficits in the face of the  Trade Deficit increases the Current Account Deficit. Dramatic for the USA and Europe. (see what happens in Greece)

8.      The Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting a country into world markets (deficit).

9.      It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.

10.  If the investment by non domestic entities fails to meet the exiting dollars, euros, british pounds… by all means, then this specific country must turn within to finance the shortfall.

11.  As the action under #10 starts to become reality, and a country turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions. (ex. Greece, Portugal)

12.  This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of for example the US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension. 

Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.

• Financial Markets are becoming increasingly volatile but the basic trend doesn't change. Gold will continue to go up and take our objectives one by one. As a matter of fact yesterday's market action was very positive: long fat bullish tail on the Dow Index...more - check the candle chart for the Dow Jones Industrials! [the SP500 shows a similar pattern]

• Oil Shares show similar bullish patterns...more We have sideward bullish trading patterns and yesterday we had a SELL Climax which could be extremely bullish. Shares in the shopping basket for Oil shares are OVERSOLD and technical indicators BULLISH. We have added STATOIL (a Norwegian oil company) to diversify out of the Dollar and out of the Euro. Remember BOTH fiat currencies are a NO-GO!!! Whatever is said about the Seasonal pattern for Crude Oil, the charts tell us the correction is over and we won't probably see much lower price levels...more

Thursday June 23, 2011

European Banks are kindly requested by Central Banks and Authorities to automatically roll-over Greek debt AND to lend even more money to bankrupt country. The problem Greece is confronted with today will not later than tomorrow be the problem of Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, France but also Belgium.  Banks are bankrupt and are rotting to the core. The final act will start once it becomes apparent Governments also are bankrupt.

The kindly formulated request is - in fact - theft in clear daylight. The only difference is that it all happens through Taxation and Money Inflation....

Europe went through a similar turmoil before WW II started. It was because of financial problems and bankrupt European Governments that most of Europe's Gold had left for safer heavens (the USA). After WW II most of the World's Gold was kept in the USA. This allowed for the Bretton Woods agreement. As a result the US Dollar became the word's reserve currency. During the pre-war period, Germany, Poland and Germany all went through a Hyperinflationary depression. Germany was the first country to recover.

 

The Dollar is - as expected - getting a free ride because of the Greek and European problems. Problems which are in a process of being drowned in freshly created Fiat Money and which will lead to a Hyperinflation of the Euro-zone.

Wednesday June 22, 2011

• All actual financial problems have a direct impact on the dangerous structure of CDO's . This is the nuclear bomb sitting right below the storm on the surface. A CDS (credit default swap) also is a bank manufactured product. Derivatives are extensively used to forge the Greek debt situation but the chickens are coming home to roost...[A Credit Default Swap is a financial instrument used to make a GOOD SAFE AAA Bond with a bad CCC one or better to make a good debt out of a bad and dangerous debt!?]. Most people don't realize these bonds and derivatives have also found their way in the pension funds. Be informed that by law the major part of any pension fund has to be invested in Government Bonds and that often Gold and Silver are not even tolerated.

• Russia holdings of U.S. Treasuries/Bonds fell to $125.4 bn in April 2011. from $ 176.3 bn in October 2010. Pimco and the Chinese are not the only ones liquidating their Dollar holdings.

• We have a bullish technical reversal signal on the Footsie, the Dow Jones and some other stock market indexes . Such may indicate the correction on the World Stock markets could be over and such is very positive for Gold, Silver , Gold and Silver shares, Oil and Energy shares. (A bullish wedge was already visible last week....

Tuesday June 21, 2011 - "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants. It is it's natural manure".

• The politicians who created the Euro and the EU really are a bunch of SUPER-IDIOTS. How could they ever create a single currency (the Euro) and not have a single debt? The execution of Greece has hopefully (for the politicians and government workers) been delayed but we are about to see a total meltdown of this Frankenstein, we're heading straight for a currency storm and nothing will survive that resembles how government operates today.  The Super-Idiots will end up in the History books in a way you don't want to know. Better get rid of the stupidity (Euro's) before the end of 2011...and be wise, don't convert it to US Dollars for it's not worth a cent more. The worst part of this story  is that in fact the same idiots are  also ruling Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, etc...That during the elections they promised everything the Voter wanted to hear but that once elected nothing was delivered. This because the representatives never return to the fold and are therefore never beaten by their own stupidities (until now)...hence they don't care.

• Both the Dollar and the Euro are NO GO's but we could see a summer rally for the Dollar/Euro . Having said this we have a dangerous Dollar/Euro constellation and the summer period could bring us surprises...the dead dance of the Dollar and Euro ain't over yet and marketing/propaganda is becoming more and more important. [those who have Dollar/Euro interest must check the long term candle charts] The Swiss franc, Australian and Canadian Dollar (and in a lesser degree the Swedish Krona and SA Rand) are still my favorites. Expect the Euro to strengthen temporary as the news spreads that Greece has been saved another time. Use each correction to SELL more Euro's!

Monday June 20, 2011

• SALES...SALES....Use this correction to initiate or to add to your existing positions. If you're concerned about the short term, you're still trusting Fiat Money for a correction this is a dead cat bounce of Fiat Money. If you understand what's going on, you will add to your positions each and every time we have such a bounce. [Assumed is you organize your savings as indicated by the Investment Pyramid. Remember that Physical GOLD comes first (physical gold is gold kept locally).] Gold is a buy, Silver is a buy, Gold and Silver shares are a buy...

• European banks have to refinance € 1.3 trillion of maturing debt by the end of 2012. The credit institutions are so intertwined that a remake of 2008 is possible but highly improbable.

• The REAL situation is A LOT WORSE than visible. The importance of the price deflator (cooked inflation figures) cannot be overstated. The mathematical implications are simple: a lower deflator creates a higher REAL GDP reading.

• The End Game is approaching. a “debt with drama scenario”—is unlikely. Instead, the United States will just like the EU engage in “financial repression,” a sort of stealth default. Financial repression relies on inflation, regulation, and fancy accounting instead of forced restructurings, or outright refusal to pay. In 1932, for example, New Zealand did a “voluntary” debt swap that converted short-term debt to longer-term debt at lower interest rates. “You look at this deal and you ask yourself, ‘Why would anyone do this? It’s insane,’” .... “And then you see that they changed the tax rules, so that if you didn’t do the swap, you’d lose a ton of money.”  Having said this, the END GAME is Hyperinflation and this will completely change the rules. Whatever is planned now will at that time stop working....Hard to time WHEN it will happen.  The media omitted to explain that the Greek problem also is a problem of Derivatives, of the Deutsche bank and of the Dollar. In other words, there has never been the slightest doubt Greece would not have been bailed out. If necessary it will be bailed out again and again...more

• Before WW II the terrorists were Polish, immigrants Jews and whoever decided to leave Germany before the War started because they smelled rat, had to pay one year's of taxes to get a exit visa.

• Important  Notice Re: Metals Trading. As a result of the Dodd-Frank Act [Section 742(a) of the Dodd-Frank act which "prohibits any person [which again includes companies] from entering into, or offering to enter into, a transaction in any commodity with a person that is not an eligible contract participant or an eligible commercial entity, on a leveraged or margined basis."] enacted by US Congress, a new regulation prohibiting US residents from trading over the counter precious metals, including gold and silver, will go into effect on Friday, July 15, 2011.
  In conjunction with this new regulation, many must discontinue metals trading for US residents on Friday, July 15, 2011 at the close of trading at 5pm ET. As a result, all open metals positions (also SHORT positions) must be closed by July 15, 2011 at 5pm ET. The prohibition of Section 742(a) does not apply, however, if such a transaction results in actual delivery within 28 days, or creates an enforceable obligation to deliver between a seller and a buyer that have the ability to deliver, and accept delivery of, the commodity in connection with their lines of business. At this point the law will mainly impact paper trade or DERIVATIVES (ETF's , Warrants, Turbo's, ....) but it has ALSO opened a door to the physical trade.

Friday June 17, 2011 - In those days, if you really wanted to insult somebody, you called him a Banker!

Part 1: John Law

Part 2: The Assignats

There is no tax on Gold and Silver bars and coins in the land of the free (USA & Canada)

There is a 6% tax on Silver Eagles, Silver Maple Leafs imported from Canada or the USA into Belgium. 21% VAT is applicable on Silver bars and other Silver products, In Switzerland for Silver bars 7.5% tax is charged on any purchases but also on any sell transaction. There is NO tax on Gold bars (Investment Gold) purchased in the EU....more

Guess who's buying the shares of those who sell now!? The cheaper the price of Gold and Silver mines are, the more you must buy. By buying Gold and Silver mines in the ground, you also buy Gold and Silver at a price BELOW the market price of physical Gold and Silver. You're out of your mind if you sell gold assets now.

click on the thumbnails to enlarge

We have once more a disconnect between the price of Gold and Silver and the price of Gold and Silver mines. A similar situation happened in 2008 and those who took advantage of the opportunity made an excellent profit. Think twice, would you exchange your Gold and Silver mines for worthless fiat paper money, for bonds of which we know they are rigged and in fact are worth ZERO!? Important is to balance your savings according to the INVESTMENT PYRAMID so you can ride the waves and still sleep at night. Bottom fishing is extremely difficult and hazardous as prices can revert their short term trend overnight. At this time it is important to remember that the earnings of the sector are going up exponentially (+ 40% for the 1st quarter of 2011) and that when the trend reverses, stock prices can go up by 30% in one day time.

The most important charts to check are the Point and Figure and Candle charts of the HUI index and the GDXJ indexes. The 27 year strong support level of the HUI index is still supporting the sector....and I expect a lot of buyers to show up if the index is forced to the 480 level.

Important is to be aware that the Gold DERIVATIVES will not protect you and that the price is rigged by the bookholder(s) of the Banksters who sell these. Derivatives are uncontrolled and unregulated and many have lost money because Derivatives came down in an abnormal way during corrections.

Thursday June 16, 2011 - both the US Dollar and the Euro are a NO-GO!

• We probable have seen the summer bottom for Gold. Paying subscribers received an email alert last Monday. This kind of article is a confirmation. I wonder what Paul will write when Gold sells for $ 5000 per ounce. Many professionals still have not understood what Gold is about...more

• It is impossible to have an economic recovery with falling industrial production. When figures go up, they go up because of inflation and not because of a higher REAL turnover. When nominal figures come down, the situation is really bad.

• We have not the slightest doubt that Greece won't be bailed out another time. There simply is no alternate: either the banks bailout Greece and Spain and Ireland and Portugal and...or they go tomorrow and Greece and the major banks go bankrupt. Moody's also warned that it may downgrade Crédit Agricole, BNP Paribas and Société Générale because of their exposure to Greek debt (or exactly what I wrote yesterday) Got Gold? Are you out of the Euro? are you out of the US Dollar? ...more

• Do yourself a pleasure and check out the charts of Lake Shore Gold, Miranda Gold, Great Panther, Alamos, Banro, Avion Gold, Fortune Minerals... [The Gold production of Banro will over the next years rise from 40k ounces to 400k ounces]...more  This is probably this year's best opportunity to add to your positions!

Wednesday June 15, 2011 - Gold Fundamentals was updated.

Government insolvencies now also threaten the solvency of the debtor country central banks.
 

Greece is bankrupt. No doubt about it. Scenario # 1:  Greece is declared bankrupt, the employees are fired (incl. all government officials) , the Prime Minister explains Social Security, Medicare, Pension funds, etc. are also in default and people will from now on have to look after themselves and what is left of the assets are sold so the country can have a fresh start NOW. Not hard to understand that such would end in a civil war.

As a huge lump of the Greek debt is held by the German Banks (Deutsche Bank. and as Greece defaults on its debt the Deutsche Bank will suffer a huge loss and this loss in turn bankrupts Deutsche Bank. There is a run on the German banks and rapidly the infection spreads all over Europe. Trichet announces a Bank Holiday for all European banks as some kind of workable solution is prepared. This is so complex that it is extremely difficult to write a scenario. Complete chaos is will be.

In the absence of ECB support , European banks will collapse. Governments would have to freeze bank accounts and redenominate debt in order to try to avoid a run on public and private debt. The Eurozone would unravel. End of story.

Scenario # 2: The German Authorities (ECB) have no alternate but to bail out Deutsche bank (read the German Tax payer pays for the Greek debauchee). Greece gets bailed out a second, a third and even a fourth time. After all, all is done with fiat paper money created out of thin air and the bailout allows the can to be kicked further down the road...and who knows the problem will maybe go away miraculously. If not, hopefully by the time the can hits the wall, those Politicians who are in charge will have served their time and filled their pockets.  When this in turn ends up in Hyperinflation the Authorities will blame the Speculator, the Chinese and even God, the Greek will blame the Germans and vice versa.  Crime will rise, Corruption will bloom, a black market and black economy will blossom, there will be more and more riots, if the police fails the army will be called in....In the end, EXACTLY THE SAME SCENARIO unfolds as we would have seen under scenario # 1. Because of the resulting hyperinflation (money becomes worthless) the Herd looses its faith in the banking system (the stock market is used to store purchasing power or  money) and the whole system crumbles....Politicians resort to a war (WW III has already started).

By bailing out Greece and the Banks it just gets worse and worse because corrective action is delayed. Debt monetization ALWAYS ends in Hyperinflation and a destruction of the Manufacturing sector and such is about to happen in the near future in the USA and in Europe. Whether Europe or the USA comes first is not relevant.

Scenario # 3: assume Greece would leave the EU it would only make matters worse and expedite a collapse. Greece would have to come up with a New Drachma asap which would have to be a 'de facto devaluation of probably at least 50%' in order to be effective. Such action would catapult Greece into Hyperinflation (little is manufactured locally and hence all imported goods would cost at least 50% more - add import taxes and VAT) and the leaders would have to default on the debt the very next day. This would only be a catalyst for the destruction process. There is no way Greece can possibly solve the problem on its self in a normal way. As a matter of fact, Greece and the ECB can't even solve the problem together. The point of no return has been passed....

Whatever is happening one thing is sure, the collapse will be violent and overnight similar to the collapse of the USSR in 1989. In the end Southern Europe will have to break away for the deflation imported by remaining in the Euro will cause tremendous civil unrest.

If after reading this you're still convinced either the Euro or either the Dollar will Hyperinflate and crash first it is high time you make your home work and study some figures. We did. When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries. Why wouldn't an investor buy Canada with a better balance sheet or Australia with a better balance sheet with interest rates at 1 or 2 or 3 percent higher? ..more

_________________________
 

First you print as much fiat money as possible and at the same time run a deflation propaganda. Next comes Hyperinflation. The billions and trillions of debt are inflated away. Best case scenario, what is left of the debt is rolled over for another 250 years. Capital is destroyed or leaves the country and the economy and society sinks in a black hole. Once Capital is gone, employment disappears and poverty takes over. Fractional Reserve Banking and Fiat money are very useful instruments as they allow the authorities to keep the ball rolling and give the impression that they can keep solving the problems....until the can hits the wall and hyperinflation starts overnight. By then, it is too late to act and all those who did not prepare are flushed down the drain....

Tuesday June 14, 2011 - The faster and the deeper the correction, the shorter the duration.

This is what cycle analysis brings for Gold and Silver:

• A spike low and BOTTOM for Silver is probable on June 13/14. If it does happen the 1980 high of $54 will be exceeded by 2013. Note the bullish wedge and objective for Swiss Silver.

• Important is that Gold produces a LOW the week of June 13th. If it produces a High it would indicate an exhaustion. A LOW indicates the start of an extension of the previous bullish cycle and would be very bullish for Gold and we will see Gold at least 30% higher by 2013.

• Greece has in fact unofficially been declared Bankrupt. Today Greek Bonds which only months ago were selling at a premium are worth a fraction (25%) of their Nominal value. German and Dutch banks (Deutsche Bank) are extremely exposed and if Greece stops to honor its debts it would have some very nasty consequences for the German tax payer. More than ever there is an urgency to SELL BONDS! [be advised Credit default Swaps are as dangerous if not more] What we live is A PARADIGM SHIFT...it will get a lot worse before it gets better....Greece is just the beginning of the end...more

If you would have told  Chinese merchant at that time that, over the course of the next years, global primacy would shift to Europe and the Americas, you would have been laughed at. In the 15th century, the highest standard of living in the World belonged to China. At that time Europeans were living out short, mud-filled lives in poverty. Explorers like Marco Polo wrote tales about the opulence of the East. Today the tables are shifting once more. This time from the West to the East and Europeans and Americans are laughing at us because we write that we see it happening. The odds to see this reversed are very small, if existing at all just because people DON ' T believe it will happen. A small group of economists and financial analysts see it and they also know that the point of NO RETURN has been past. NO SOCIETY can survive on a service industry while Capital and Manufacturing is fleeing the country for better yields and less regulation and this is exactly what is happening. History itself is the proof that this statement is correct.

During the last decades of the Ming the flow of silver into China was greatly diminished, thereby undermining state revenues and indeed the entire Ming economy. This damage to the economy was compounded by the effects on agriculture of the incipient Little Ice Age, natural calamities, crop failure, and sudden epidemics. The ensuing breakdown of authority and people's livelihoods allowed rebel leaders such as Li Zicheng to challenge Ming authority.

Monday June 13, 2011- Today's enemy is "The Terrorist" and "Money Laundering" has  become the crime by excellence!?

World War II was all about Coal and Steel and a little about Oil. WW III is all about Oil. About 20 million barrels a day or 50% of the World's oil production transits through the Golf of Aden and the Street of Hormuz.  Accidentally unrest is seen in Yemen, Iran, Qatar and Bahrain (so far Oman has been forgotten and the US operates out of Djibouti). The New Enemy is the Terrorist (you have to define and name the opponent in order to mobilize the Herd and prepare families to have their kids sent to War Zones). Also War is no more called War...it's called: "bring freedom, bring democracy, ensure the citizen is safe,..." .

Whatever is said or done, a fact is that what we see today is an exact remake of the pre-1940 scenario. Jewish immigrants are replaced by  'illegal immigrants' and the center of all Terrorism happens to be the Oil producing countries in the Middle-East and North-Africa. We have come to a full circle. The very abuse of Power that inspired Revolutions has returned and it is far worse than a King would ever managed to do.

When would a wise Jew have begun making plans to leave Germany, Austria, Hungry, Poland? From 1933 to 1939 anti-Jewish policies escalated slowly. It was only after that in 1938 most synagogues were set on fire that 100,000 Jews packed and left. By 1939 only part of the Jews had left...most stayed and were deported and killed. Those who stayed all lived in the conviction that what was happening was a Fata Morgana, a bad dream which would be solved by the Authorities and the Voters. For believing this, they paid with their live.

When did Germans start to make preparations for the Weimar hyperinflation? We know that most Germans were caught unprepared. History books say it all happened suddenly...Some Germans however saw it coming and decided to sell all their belongings and left. Did so even when they had to pay a 25% penalty on what they took with them when they left the country.

What a lie...Propaganda pretends that the Central Banks (ECB, FED) can control Inflation by raising interest!? The way Government looks at interest rates is brain dead.

Interest Rates rise for two reasons:

# 1  Interest rates rise because a nation is in trouble and capital fears a currency default. It flees forcing interest rates to rise to meet the expectation of a devaluation. (ex. Greece, Portugal). After the devaluation interest rates can return to normal levels. Important is to understand that rising interest rates raises the cost of Government borrowing tremendously. Authorities now try to keep interest rates as low as possible because they are the ones sitting in the fire line. They will keep doing so until the Natural Market forces decide otherwise.

Low interest rates don't stimulate the economy. Japan is our best example. Interest rates are kept to absolute minimums (who remembers the days where Japan went so far and had negative interest rates!?). The only result of low Japanese interest rates was the invention of the Yen Carry Trade: people borrowed Yen and used them to speculate in non-Japanese markets.

# 2 An improving economy comes also with rising interest rates because there is more competition for Capital.

America the land of the free? The USSR would not have done it better. Boeing plans to built a new plant. South Carolina was selected because it offers huge advantages over Washington. IT is a state with a good moderate climate, lower taxation, cheaper housing and a more lenient taxation system and very important Boeing would be able to hire both syndicated and non-syndicated labor. Pres. Obama VETOED this plan. Boeing is either forced to expand its operations in Washington or manufacture abroad. Guess what's going to happen. If the Authorities REALLY want more jobs, there is ONLY ONE WAY to get these: less taxation, less regulation and less Government. Everything else, any other job plan is BS. Forget about reading the story about Boeing (we know why the job creation will end up in China) and Obama in the Wall Street Journal or Financial Times.

Canada the land of the free? Kitco, a highly respected gold retailer, was raided by the Canadian province's version of the I.R.S. today. Revenue Quebec, the province's tax collector, didn't press charges but says it has "reason to believe" that Kitco AND other gold retailers have avoided paying more than $150 million in taxes. Kitco has been a highly respected and reputable precious metals dealer for decades in Canada and it is highly, highly unlikely that they have done anything improper. What is much more likely is that the Government has begun to crack down on gold retailers. It is for this reason that we advise subscribers to keep their gold holdings widely diversified amongst numerous countries, institutions, companies and locations to give yourself the best chance of avoiding being attacked and robbed by the government.

• CAUTION - We've updated the section of World Indexes : many indexes risk to fall out of a Bearish Wedge others will resume their Bear run (June 10, 2011).

• Expect US stock markets to veer up as soon as QE III breaks the news. Over the last weeks we repeatedly wrote that we are 100% sure to see QE III and we're not the only ones...Not only can they not afford to have more harm done to the 401k's but the USA is already preparing for the 2012 Presidential elections...more

• It is still a question mark whether SILVER will accelerate its bull run or retest the bottom of its uptrend channel. Do check the PF charts for more. Remember Silver spiked and hence needs more time and reparation before it can resume its bull run. Having said this I would advise to postpone your Silver purchases until there is some kind of bullish confirmation.

• I really have serious problems with people & advisors telling people they should keep (Municipal) Bonds. Not only are they extremely expensive but what they yield don't even compensate for the inflation. If you see what happens to these kind of bonds (Greece was an excellent example) advising people to buy/hold such bonds is almost a criminal act. Corporate bonds are selling at historic high prices. If you want to see what a bubble looks like, click here.

• I also have serious problems with people and banks advising ETF's, Warrants, TAK,...and other uncontrolled and unregulated bank manufactured investment instruments. If you see the underlying value go up but the derivative doesn't you should know who's cashing on your money. Somebody has to pay for the fancy buildings, limo's and secretaries of the Bankers. Better not be you.

• Gold and Silver majors were updated. Note following for Barrick (ABX). The dip is a buy opportunity! Contrary to media reports earlier in the day, no other measures were announced addressing the tax status of mining companies in Tanzania. As previously communicated, the tax treatment of our existing operations is, and will continue to be, that set out in the respective Mineral Development Agreements...more

Liberty is the right to be left alone. The right not to have to prove who you are to petty government officers.

Friday June 10, 2011

This is the chart I published in 2009 in an article called "Mixed Signals". It exactly looks like the $HUI chart looks today. Ever since Gold has gone up from $ 1000 to $ 1540 or 54% in only two years time or 27% per year. Earnings of Gold and Silver shares are going up by 30% to 50% and this will be reflected in what they pay to the shareholders. In other words, Gold and Silver mines are poised to go up by more than 27% y/y between today and 2012. Got some??? High time to shop!

That's how Real Estate works!? Because I over pay for a property which you can rent for less and hope to be able to sell it at an even higher price? Do you really expect Real Estate in some European countries (Belgium, France, Netherlands) to appreciate by 20% per year ? Do you really think that buying Real Estate still can make you rich? Do you really think that by buying more real Estate you will get richer faster? People in the USA, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Croatia and England thought so....Today the Landlord gets all the headaches and the renter all the enjoyment. If you still think Real Estate prices can't come down, your are in for a bad surprise.

Let's be straight forward, we are after more paying subscribers and we know we will have to write off those who keep investing in Bonds because Investors who have been betting on Treasuries are destined "to get cooked like frogs in an increasingly hot pot of water".. This is also true for investors keeping which keep their money in bank accounts. People do research before they buy stocks. However nothing is done before they put money in saving and deposits accounts with banks!? And exactly the banks are running the worst Ponzi schemes...more  Governments have and are borrowing money to CONSUME and not to PRODUCE. This is about to end in a catastrophe and for the Dollar and for the Euro and for the Pound Sterling. We don't see Chinese and Japanese open factories in the West. Why would they do this at a time where the West is killing what is left of their local (service) industry by extreme taxation and regulation!?  Why would they even consider to deposit money in the western banks at a time where Capital, savings are being destroyed by artificial low interest rates. (also read EU USSR Redux). The USA will just like the USSR and the EU fall apart...more

The WW III is in the make. A World War historically ALWAYS is the dessert of a Hyperinflationary depression. This time it won't be different'.  For some days now Yemen is the news...more

Thursday June 9, 2011 - Don't fall for the propaganda (lies) of the Authorities.

Amazing is how many people are intimidated by Bernanke's speech. A hyperinflationary policy is ONLY possible with a Deflationary Propaganda and this is EXACTLY what Bernanke is doing. I am 100% convinced there will be a QE III (or similar action) and also that the Debt Ceiling will be increased. It's either  this or drown...We're flying through a storm. Important is to hold course and to arrive safely. If you get scared and jump out of the airplane now, you will kill yourself.

The goal is to preserve your savings. Not to make fiat money. The USSR went bust overnight. The American Municipalities are broken but the fiat price of the bankrupt debt has been going up (manipulated, rigged). The European Social Security is broken, there is no money left in the Pension Funds and Authorities have been using future funds to finance existing obligations. These are FACTS, no RUMORS. If you loose money because you are still keeping these kind of monetary instruments and a financial accident happens, you will have nobody to blame but yourself.

More than half of the American house owners are under water with their mortgage. The residual value of their property is less than what they own to the bank...and Real Estate prices continue to come down. In Europe (Belgium) the Real Estate bubble has busted in some countries but the worst has still to be seen in other countries. The problem is that once the bust happens, it is too late to act.

Wednesday June 8, 2011

• We have added some new bar charts in the subscribers' section for Gold & Silver juniors II.  This will help you to better understand the technical pattern we are in right NOW and also why some patience may be required. As you can see the charts we have annotated are in different phases. (check the candle charts with the thick borders)

• Important is to keep in memory the PF charts of the HUI (gold bugs index) and GDXJ (Junior Gold mine index).  See the small consolidation just on top of the support (27 year large) line for the HUI index and the larger consolidation on the uptrend line for the Junior Gold index.. Having said this, note the small bullish flag on the GDXJ index. The odds to have a sell off of Gold and Silver shares of some importance are extremely small, if possible at all. The fact that certain analysts do call for a sell off in fact is extremely bullish for the sector.

The underperformance of gold stocks against gold bullion seems to be accelerating. The bottom line is that a number of large asset hedge funds are operating a vicious ratio trade in the gold market, going long bullion and short gold stocks.  Rumors persist of large OTC derivatives bets on that same ratio trade, adding “weight” to the trade. The banks appear to be on the other side of the trade. Be aware such a trade can only last so long and the PF charts tell you at all times what the support and resistance levels are.

• You cannot possibly stop Quantitative Easing. If they even dream of doing it, the Stock markets would collapse. As a result the economy would collapse and Gold would momentarily come down and maybe not go up to $ 12,000 and higher but certainly to a level which is a multiple of today's price. The economy is turning down again....and it becomes an urgent matter for Central banks to start  QE III

• The outlook for the US Dollar certainly isn't good and may well be one of the reasons we shall not see a SELL-OFF of Gold and Silver and shares this summer. Our charts look rather nasty. A weak Dollar means a stronger Euro (in 2008 the Dollar went up for the wrong reasons. We may now see the Euro go up for the wrong reasons. At least against the US Dollar.

Tuesday June 7, 2011 - A debt moratorium also punishes the fools who trusted Government

- Portfolio change: Sell 100 RIG (Transocean) @ $ 64,50 and Buy 46 Petrochina @ $ 131.60 -

If I remember well, we published months ago that the US real Estate market would see a brief recovery in 2011 and would resume its crash later that year. This is exactly what happened...more Real Estate cycles are somewhat harder to time because they do not start and end at the same time. The real estate top for Japan was 1989. In the USA it was 2006/07. For Ireland, Spain, the UK and Greece the timing also is somewhat different. Belgium hasn't seen the worst yet. But Real Estate is a High Order Capital Good and it ALWAYS suffers during a hyperinflationary depression! This time won't be different. [our chart for the US expected a correction from 2012 to 2015. We may be a bit early]

Uranium one has locked in a potential 50% technical profit.  GAPS on charts are closed in 99% of all cases. Timing is hard but once the Fukushima quake has been forgotten by the Herd (and it almost is), the Uranium sector will again benefit from positive attention: nuclear energy is still # 1...more

Commodities tell us right now we could be sailing through the Doldrums and for the next weeks not a lot of action could be seen in the financial markets. Except is we have some kind of financial accident...more

Oil shares and Gold and Silver shares are also part of the fleet sailing through the Doldrums. Not a lot has happened since the beginning of 2011 and we may have to wait until the fall before we see fresh action. Except off course if we have some kind of financial accident. Such is by definition hard to predict. If possible at all. Therefore it is better to be safe and prepared.  The Charts of our favorites still look good. Note that we have added a link to the home page of each share and that Marathon Oil and Conoco also mine Oil Sand/Tar.

Think about it. Your alternate is Fiat Paper money and an option to buy it or Bonds. No safe at all! The external debt of Ireland is 1,305% of Irish GDP ($ 535,000 per capita) , the external debt of the UK is 429% of British GDP ($ 150,000 per capita), the external debt of Switzerland is 380% of Swiss GDP ($ 156,000 per capita), the external debt of the Netherlands is 370% of Dutch GDP ($ 146,000 per capita), the external debt of Belgium is 327% of Belgian GDP ($120,000 per capita), the external debt of Denmark is 307% of GDP ($ 110,000 per capita). And one must add the INTERNAL DEBT to these figures...

If the price of Gold and Silver keep rising, the earnings of Gold and Silver miners keep going up exponentially.  It may take more time but sooner or later the market will discover this and shares will go ballistic. In the past if more than once occurred that Gold and Silver shares went up by 30% an more in ONE DAY.

Monday June 6, 2011

More madness – more volatility. We are no longer trading; we are playing pin ball.  The brokers must love it because they are making a damn fortune on the commissions with all these trades being yanked off, put back on again, yanked off and slammed back on once again. Lather, rinse, repeat. Extremely hard for a non- professional to discern any trends in this sort of insanity. Whatever the hedge fund algorithms decide to do at any given moment, is where the markets are going to go for the time being. It really all comes down to that. Either risk is in or risk is out. If it is out, equities and most commodities are going lower with bonds going higher. If it is in, equities and most commodities are going higher with bonds going lower.  (Dan Norcini)

Mr. Trichet is now only a few months from retirement so it costs him little to point out the obvious, but politically unpalatable truth, that a currency union without central fiscal authority is an unsatisfactory structure. The absence of a central fiscal authority is the Euro's greatest Achilles heel and is where voter and investor concern is most acute. The agonizing over funding a bailout mechanism for Greece, Ireland and Portugal would be inconsequential if the EU had the power to levy taxes on a regional basis.

Silver fundamentals...more

• In 2010 Silver produced from worldwide mining totaled 667 million ounces. Silver is used for a manifold of applications ranging from biocide to solar panels. The industrial use will rise 36% over the next five years and the annual industrial demand/consumption is expected to range around 667 million ounces.
• In 2010 total demand for Silver as 986 million ounces.
• Silver production in Mexico, Australia, China and Argentina is rising. It is declining in Peru, the US and Canada.
• The average cost to produce Silver from primary silver mines is $ 5 per ounce.
• Governments hold only 355 millions ounces of Silver.
• The top three silver producers are Peru, Mexico and China
• July is traditionally the best month to buy Silver

Remarkable is that our PF charts of the Major Stock market indexes expressed in Real Money or Gold are BREAKING DOWN...more

Friday June 3, 2011 - The second best definition of the IMF (international monetary fund)

The IMF is an economic consulting firm run by a bunch of communists, socialists, and fascists. Only an idiot would ever welcome their advice. The advice they give seems to be useful at times, but only by accident, such as when they tell governments to cut deficit spending. Taking advice from the IMF is like getting sex advice from a nun.

On the IMF, DSK and Justice:  Evil has to be pulled out by its roots . 

" I sympathize with the emotion, although his incarceration won't change anything. Congressmen, mayors, and all sorts of government officials are often prosecuted and jailed. But it's just window dressing, there just to give the state an appearance of propriety. The organization itself is corrupt and destructive, and inevitably draws corrupt and destructive people to itself. It has to be pulled out by its roots. DSK himself is just another typical arrogant power-brokering scumbag. He'll be replaced by another scumbag who's just as bad, or maybe even worse. They're like sharks' teeth; they'll keep growing, and being replaced, until you kill the shark. So, again, we should talk about the IMF and the World Bank themselves, not whatever clowns happen to inhabit their penthouse offices at any given time."  (Doug Casey)

To remember you that the Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup are about to be downgraded again, we have updated the Basket of Financials and Bank shares/Financials are a CLEAR SHORT!. The PF chart of Deutsche Bank is extremely interesting as we are able to mark the pivot points and the bearish objectives: $ 20 !

Thursday June 2, 201 - please READ and adjust your savings according to our Investment pyramid

• If the British Pound is stronger than the US Dollar but Weaker than the Euro, what will happen to the Dollar/Euro exchange rate?...more
   

• Greek citizens will loose 70% of their savings. Our scenario is that the day is close where Greece will leave the EU and the Euro and re-introduce the Drachma. [The more Authorities deny this, the higher the odds to see it happening]

Zorba the Greek is about to loose over 70% of his savings/assets.

 

1. We have a bank holiday and President Papoulias announces Greece will leave the EU and Euro. The New Drachma comes with a de facto  devaluation of 50% . As a result Inflation rages as the price of imported goods soars.

2. Salaries, Prices and Rents are blocked. Shelves of Super-markets are empty but people buy food on the black market. A small gold coin buys a cow.

3. Real Estate continues to crash and looses 70% of its 2009 value.

4. Greek Government Bonds crash and loose 80% of their nominal value. Authorities have to roll over the debt. Treasuries are exchanged for new ones yielding 1% more but only maturing in 2150.

5. Private pension funds are confiscated by the Government. The issuing funds are used to avoid the bankruptcy of the Social Security and Public pension system.

6. There is Social unrest and the Prime Minister and Government in charge are fearing for their life and leave the country...

7. A similar pattern unfolds in Spain and Portugal and unemployed people now join the protesting students ....

8. Portugal, Spain but also Italy leave the EU and re-introduce the Escudo, Peseta and Lira.
9. French President Sarkozy looses the French elections in a land slide.

10. More than one year after the 2010 elections Belgium still has no Government.

• If you did not know yet, the Gold market is manipulated daily and often it is rigged several times each day. The action is clearly visible on my charts. Be aware that the longer this is done, the higher Gold will geyser. The manipulation of the gold market is achieved by derivatives, whereby paper is overwhelming real metal.  Last year the turnover with gold derivatives was about 129,000 Tonnes, but only 3,860 Tonnes of physical Gold was sold.

• Export of Capital may be regulated or controlled but it in fact is extremely easy to export your savings without actually moving them: BUY GOLD! As soon as you have Gold you have moved your assets out of reach of the Authorities...

• SELL DOLLARS and buy SA Rands: it now becomes clear that the performance of the South-African Rand will better than the performance of the Dollar.

• SELL Japanese YEN...more

• Our advice to sell Euro's and buy SWISS was a 100% hit...Last February 15 we advised to buy Swiss !

• The AUSSIE is a CLEAR buy at this level...more

• Expressed in Canadian Dollars, Gold has just positively confirmed the neckline and is ready for higher. Extreme efforts are made to keep the slide of the American Dollar human...the interventions become more and more visible and such indicates we are coming close to the point where they will fail. The Canadian Dollar however seems to be suffering from the vicinity of the American Dollar and is the worst performing Fiat currency compared to the Euro.

Wednesday June 1st, 2011 -  What respect are you giving yourself if you deny what is written in
                                                        History Books?

• By now, most informed readers have at least a general understanding of the concept of "hyperinflation". It is the exponential increase in the prices of goods, directly caused by the collapse of the fiat paper currency in which those prices are denominated. Earlier I wrote that in the USA hyperinflation would happen as soon as MID-2011 and not later than end 2012. Worst case scenario I am one year early. The question is not whether hyperinflation will happen but rather WHEN is will occur.

1. Indications that the hyperinflation is starting are provided by the DEBT LEVEL, the BOND MARKET [updated charts] (we have a monetization of the debt) and the VELOCITY of MONEY (people stop trusting the fiat money and try to get rid of it - Gresham's Law).

2. I have not yet drawn a scenario as to what the impact of a Hyperinflation of the Dollar will be on other Fiat Currencies of which the Central Banks hold large amounts of US-Dollars.

3. There is no doubt another financial crisis is looming and that this one will make the Great Depression look like a walk in the park.

4. After Hyperinflation comes Deflation.

5. The end act of an economic crisis is ALWAYS a World War and the Third World War has started (North-Africa & the Middle-East).

• Those amongst you who are not prepared (those who are still trusting Authorities and Banksters) will loose the major part (if not all of their financial assets). Those who keep chasing Fiat Paper Wealth and money will keep the non-believers company on the road to financial Hell.

• Real Estate holders/Investors won't be spared: Real Estate is a High Order Capital Good.

• Stocks will end up being "the cash" of the people. During the Zimbabwe hyperinflation people kept their financial belongings in stocks (Shares are real assets) . They sold the shocks each time they needed the money and bought stocks each time they received money. Alternatively some people kept South-African Rand, Euro's and US Dollars.

• Banksters they are. Not only has the rating of Goldman Sachs fallen below the rating of Citicorp but have they acted like genuine Mobsters by systematically rejecting borrowers' efforts to lower their loan payments through government programs...more

• Merlin is active in the Bond market...and what a wonderful job he's doing...municipalities go broke but their bonds go up!? The Poor people who keep their savings in Bonds because they think it's safe will end up like those who kept their savings in Bank shares because they were told it was safe...

• The PURPLE LINE for Silver is HOLDING...see how the new trend channel looks like now...more [THIS IS A BUY SIGNAL!]

• We have added an old friend in the Utility/LOCG section. Be aware ANYTHING will be better than Bond, bank manufactured investment products, derivatives,  Paper Money and bank deposits...

• The US Dollar resumes its bear run. The correction had very small legs...exactly as I forecasted.

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