Friday April 30, 2010 - Remember....R... I told you not
to wait !
Gold broke through the $ 1165 level. The small
reversed HS Shoulder and neckline have been confirmed. Objective is $
1220.
Gold shares are following gold as the XAU index jumped up to a
3½-month high today. Keep your
positions, and buy new ones in gold and the strongest metals shares.
Silver is lagging somewhat but
it's looking good too and very strong above $17.80. The taxation on
physical Silver is very high in many countries (especially in Western
Europe) and this may be the reason why the price is not following Gold.
Don't listen to this propaganda - unless you want to loose your
savings. The situation in the USA is A LOT worse than
the situation of Greece, Portugal and Spain...soon the Forex [€/$]
pendulum will swing to the other side! Brace for more social
unrest...what we have is a paradigm shift and we're not out of the woods
yet...it will get a lot worse!!!
Thursday April 29, 2020
Ride the wave. Gold and
Silver to continue their bull run. At a
certain point this run will switch on the afterburner on the Gold and
Silver mines.
Don't be late and sell your
Bonds in time: ECB may have to turn to
'nuclear option' to prevent Southern European debt collapse.
The European Central Bank may soon have to invoke
emergency powers to prevent the disintegration of southern European bond
markets, with ominous signs of investor flight from Spain and
Italy. After Greece and Portugal comes Spain, Italy, France and
Ireland...moreThose who invested in Greek
government Bonds will loose 50% to 70% of their savings. Banks did not
sell their holdings in time: BNP Paribas Fortis has a
position of € 1,5 bn, Fortis has an exposure of € 4,1 bn and KBC € 1,2
The Greek problems should be out of the way by Friday.
Under no condition the ECB will let Greece go down. Once
this is clear, we expect the Euro to rebound and the media to refocus on
American debt problems.
Gold is "the only currency" worth investing in as it is a good hedge
against the euro zone’s fiscal troubles. A public
acceptance the Greek problems are solved and the knowledge the ECB will
UNDER NO condition let the FPIGS go down, will 'at least' originate of
correction of the Euro.
Banks were
suffering this week but remain very resilient to a
downward correction. We don't like the sector, however this does not
mean bank shares won't show off as a result of the Zimbabwe effect.
Wednesday April 28, 2010 - we told you about
Gold...but you either didn't have the time to pay more attention to what
we wrote, either you still think we're nuts...Unfortunately, we're not
and we know all to well what is gonna happen to Gold and Silver!
The Dollar/Euro has landed on a critical
level. We need however a
confirmation that the Mother of All Necklines has failed. Taking into
account the stressed markets and overbought technical indicators it is
too early to call for a trend
reversal...more
World Stock markets were overbought for weeks now
and a minimum correction towards the 200 day Moving Average is certainly
possible. The forecasted correction has a last been initiated.
Gold has clearly broken new record levels and yesterday's action was
impressive. New high for Gold in British pounds. Only days ago
we wrote technical indicators would ensure that we would see a solid
Gold run. Technical indicators on the daily
and weekly charts are becoming increasingly bullish, so a continuation
of this rally is likely. Expect new highs for gold in non-dollar
currencies and a run for $ 1225 once the $ 1165 has been cleared.
Newmont Mining
(gold mine) net income nearly triples!
Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM 52.77, -0.42, -0.79%) on Tuesday said net
income attributable to shareholders nearly tripled in the first quarter
at $546 million, against $189 million in the year ago period. On a per
share basis, the company earned $1.11 in the period against 40 cents a
year ago. The company’s adjusted profit was 83 cents a share. Newmont
mining is one of the gold mines we advise to hold/buy.
Standard and Poors has reclassified Greek Government bonds as junk
bonds. The rating for Portuguese Government bonds has
been reclassified to an A- and a moratorium of the Greek debt is
certainly possible. We know of many Greeks which will be sorry they did
not invest their savings into Gold and Silver.
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, which has missed $6
million in debt payments since Jan. 1, should consider seeking Chapter 9
bankruptcy protection, City Controller
Dan Miller told a three-hour special committee hearing...more
Financials/bank equities crash
not because allegations are made the Greek debt will be
restructured (sold your Bonds?)
but also because the bull run was WAY OVEREXTENDED and has been for
weeks now running on a falling/weak volume. We told our subscribers not
to play the Financials...way too dangerous...and if you get burned. you
get stuck with nothing. We often ask ourselves why investors keep
buying Bank shares as there are plenty of interesting
alternatives...Math's today = magic tomorrow!
Tuesday April 27, 2010
BP
doubles profit figures! First quarter figures
for British Petroleum are better than we expected. Oil stocks will offer an excellent protection for the coming
crisis. (see our investment table). BP is
one of the Oil shares we advise to hold/buy
Yesterday we had as forecasted an all time high for Gold in Euro and
Yen. New highs we also had for Silver.
All time highs for Gold expressed in other currencies will follow.
Today proofs how fast it can go.
Expect to see the price of Gold and Silver mines to follow in the
wake of the Gold price: today they are math's but
tomorrow they will be magic.
The time for the Euro to default hasn't come yet.
The Euro continues to bottom out as Merkel (Germany) requests more
efforts from Greece. At the same time long term Greek yields
(9,71%) continue to soar and long term Portuguese yields
(5,07%) have broken through the 5% level as we forecasted
and explained in our bond section. Be prepared to see similar
action for other EU countries and US states as the crisis deepens. In
the EU problems are POLITICIZED by the member countries and therefore it
comes as no surprise that solutions take longer to negotiate.
Why one must not buy Bank shares.
What we see at present is a battle between the
central banks and the collapse of the financial system fought on two
fronts. On one front, the central banks preside over the
creation of additional liquidity for the financial system in order
to hold back the tide of debt defaults that would otherwise occur. On
the other, they incite investment banks and other willing parties
to bet against a rise in the prices of gold, oil, base metals, soft
commodities or anything else that might be deemed an indicator of
inherent value. Their objective is to deprive the independent observer
of any reliable benchmark against which to measure the eroding value,
not only of the US dollar, but of all fiat currencies. Equally, their
actions seek to deny the investor the opportunity to hedge against the
fragility of the financial system by switching into a freely traded
market for non-financial assets.
Monday April 26, 2010 we expect an ALL
TIME HIGH for GOLD in Euro, Yen, Swiss franc, British Pound
Goldman Sachs brilliantly failed in doing God's work.
(click here to have fun)
Therefore the best financial reform is to let the Banksters
fail. What we live today is a story about the incredible world of
government interference, a rally in Treasury bonds which doesn’t last
and last but not least the story of a stupid Herd.
The World's manufacturing park has been moved to China.
The Chinese don't really care what will happen to the
Dollar and the Euro. Assuming the Europeans and Americans don't behave
properly they will simply seize the factories and machines the West has
installed in their country during the past years.
The Dollar made a countertrend move and got a free ride on the back
of the Euro...but by now it has become clear it has
lost steam and a reversal is imminent. It's run was stopped by the Mother of All Necklines and the Fibonacci resistance
level. Also the moving averages are in negative alignment and
both are falling...more
[In the USA a number of states are technically bankrupt
and will be looking for the Federal Government to come to the rescue
(read more money printing). These include California, New York, Illinois
among others] . The greatest impact
from the Goldman Sachs stream of lawsuits and felony charges, complete
with potential will be on the USDollar and not the GS stock price.
In no way can the existing real USGovt debt be paid off without
inflating the currency in which the debt is held, even to the point of
hyper-inflation. A $5500 gold price per ounce
would be sufficient to back up the money supply (M1) as an alternative
to hyper-inflation and an inflationary issuance of the currency. Either
powerful price inflation is permitted, or a five-fold rise in the Gold
price is permitted.
93% of Investors Believe That Gold Will
Fall. We confirm this figure
as we found out there is a correlation between the number of clicks we
have for WWW.GOLDONOMIC.COM and the price of Gold. Because of the number of clicks
we actually know Gold is about to surge ...(The
greatest returns are when a widely-held belief of investors proves
incorrect)
The USA and the Dollar are no more the center
of the world and the failure to see the price of gold in various other
currency terms leads to erroneous conclusions.
This is exactly what the Elliott Wave analysts are doing. Therefore we
follow Gold in Dollar, CanDollar, Euro,
Aussie,
Swiss, Rupee, British Pound, South
African and Yen.
Thinking of buying unregulated Gold, Silver and
Gold and Silver mine derivatives!?
Check out our Juniors first!...more
Markets are reacting in a stupid linear way.
Have investors really become
this shortsighted? Who did ever doubt Greece would not be bailed
out? What sense did it make to see Gold come down as investors
feared a contamination of the Greek problem? Authorities know what the
problem is like and they won't take the smallest chance something goes
wrong....
Dollar/Euro and Gold: a first warning was
issued last Friday and a fresh one
yesterday...The Dollar/Euro
reversed sharply and Gold made an impressive run from $ 1135 to $ 1157.
Still listening to your banker? Better read
this: Goldman Sachs (not only Government) is rotten to the core...much
of the Wall Street Bailout process was designed by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Past President of the NY Federal Reserve
Bank; Stephen Friedman, an ex-Goldman Sachs officer who
still serves on the Board of the NY Fed; Hank Paulson, an
ex-Goldman Sachs operative who designed the hedge funds that plunged the
financial markets into turmoil in the first place; and Goldman
Sachs financier Robert Rubin. As the crisis unfolded,
Goldman Sachs continued to market these Hedge Funds to uninformed
clients, even after becoming aware that mortgage-backed securities were
crumbling. And when When AIG was bailed out...the primary
beneficiary was Goldman Sachs...
more
Friday April 23, 2010
Greece is a sideshow being treated like a main
event in order to keep attention off the problems of the US and UK...As
long as the State, or combination of States (EU/IMF) can issue debt, no
one will be allowed to fail. The
propaganda could not be better and the Herd is as usual falling for it.
It is so short sighted it even fails to notice the wholesale prices rose
more than expected last month as food prices surged by the most in 26
years...more
Cash and Bonds are trash. The next Top for
Commodities and bottom for the Real Estate cycle will be in 2033/34.
Between now and 2033/34 we expect rising commodity
prices (especially Oil, metals, Gold, Silver, Copper) and
falling Real Estate prices and a shrinking real estate market.
At the same time we expect Fiat Paper Money and Bonds (paper
assets) to loose their value because of a Hyperinflation and/or
a debt moratorium. [2009 in Zimbabwe was all debt was abolished]. Those keeping a large portion of their savings in Cash, Bank accounts,
Bonds, Common stocks (see our section of Stock Market
indexes expressed in Gold) and Real Estate
will be disappointed.
World Stock market indexes and common stocks
may well as we explained months ago continue to rise under the
Zimbabwe effect.
But what good will it do to your savings as they continue to slide when
expressed in real money? NONE ! ...more
We have a worrisome debt situation in the USA,
the UK and Europe and people can write books about
it. But it will get a lot worse before it gets better. Greece is a good
example of what is to happen...
Greek Bond yields soar: long term government
bonds pay 8,50 % versus 3% only weeks ago. The
market value of these bonds are crashing....as
predicted in the section 2009 Bond crash. Portugal continues to get dragged into the
mud as their 10 yr yield is up 17 bps to 4.79%, the highest since March
‘09. [Greek national debt is 120% of GDP]
Britain has biggest annual deficit since World
War II and a debt of £ 152.8 billion.The simple result of
Jim's formula as Government income falls
(less tax income) and expenditures raise. We expect this process to
expand all over the EU and the USA...more
Nobody mentions it but Japanese debt [ national
debt is 200% of GDP] is much
bigger and the situation critical...Fitch
Ratings has warned that Japan's sovereign debt is rising to ominously
high levels as the workforce shrinks and deflation grinds deeper, while
the government's reserve assets may prove unusable for defense in a
funding crisis...more
German troops in Afghanistan call on Angela
Merkel (Germany) to explain why they are at war.
The operation costs a horrendous amount of
money and is the joke of the day. The politicians
are largely to blame. Since the beginning of the mission eight years ago
they suppressed a realistic description of the situation... Deaths,
injuries, battles and heavy weaponry -- none of these suit the picture
that was painted back then...more
The DANGER of rising interest rates is that it
will trigger the financial Nuke bomb of the Credit Default
Swaps...more
Gold is the guarantee against a hung Parliament
and irresponsible Authorities. Governments in
a tight spot can print money or let inflation devalue the currency to
float them off the rocks of excessive debt. But they cannot make more
gold or debase this precious metal. Gold will go up and stay up..$
1300, $ 1460 and higher...more
Check our key candle chart for GLD and more
timing information. As soon as the free ride of the
Dollar has come to and end (and Gold
and Silver shares say this can happen any day) it will boost
Gold to $ 1300..more
Even the Blind see it !
What I don't understand is how and why
Investors still can doubt about the future performance and direction of
Gold, Silver, Commodities and Gold-Silver equities.
There is little doubt we'll see $-Gold over the $2,500 in the near
future...
Thursday April 22, 2010
Those
banks which inhabit marble palaces usually attract the most customers .The
feeling of optimism and prosperity is contagious. It is human to be
subconsciously influenced by appearances but such is at the same time is
extremely dangerous. Unbelievable is that
many readers don't even
take the time to go through the open sections of this site.
Many prefer to chase short term profits or park their savings in the
wrong instruments. Financials don't change overnight but it is
extremely important to KNOW and UNDERSTAND the fundamentals instead of
'Believing' the hollow talks sold by today's Media, Builders, Bankers
and Authorities. Unfortunately, most of the time, people realize this
when it is too late.
The long tail on the daily candle chart for
Gold indicates we are to see more bullish action soon...more
We expect a major bull run for Gold expressed in the major world
currencies. These are the next objectives for Gold: $ 1,460 - $ 1,650 -
$ 6,000 - $ 6,221 - $8,000 - $ 10,000 - $ 15,000...more
Important is that we also have a positive test
of the support/neckline for $-Silver...more
$-Bonds and British Gilts are overbought and ready for a
fresh slide. Expect this
to impact the Dollar Index. the Euro and
Gold. The correlation of the Utilities with the Interest rates has
stopped as investors prefer to buy these instead of the extremely
dangerous Government Bonds. Utilities are Real Assets.
America's
new $ 100 bill may as well be an Euro. In
reality they are both not worth the ink on the paper or ZERO...so why
must they look different? [click on the bill to
enlarge]...more
Obama suggests value-added tax.
Or how he odds are the USA may slide into the stupid
taxation and regulation which is killing Europe and the EU at this time.
The USSR and Communist China are recent historic examples that the
theories of Karl Marx don't work. So why persisting in applying
them? .more..
The relation price/quality of Real Estate in
France and Spain is probably worse than what is available in North
Africa. Rents are
astronomically high. Certainly when compared to the income of the French
and the Spanish people. In Spain literally thousands of finished homes
are unoccupied and locked up while youngsters are forced to live with
their parents because they cannot afford to pay for the rent. Both
Builders and Landlords for some reason refuse to bring down the rents
and prefer to leave the premises empty in the hope the market will pick
up...but it will NOT! The Spanish Real estate market is an accident
waiting to happen because it also is built poorly and with low quality
materials. A similar situation exists on a smaller scale with
existing buildings in
Paris and suburbs.
Wednesday April 21, 2010 - The Austrian
free-market economists use common sense principles.
You cannot spend your way out of a recession.
(Quantitative Easing doesn't work)
You cannot regulate the economy into oblivion
and expect it to function. (Too much regulation kills)
You cannot tax people and businesses to the
point of near slavery and expect them to keep producing.
You cannot create an abundance of money out of
thin air without making all that paper worthless.
The government cannot make up for rising
unemployment by just hiring all the out of work people to be
bureaucrats or send them unemployment checks forever. (bureaucrats
take away jobs)
You cannot live beyond your means indefinitely.
(Karl Marx and Socialism don't work)
The economy must actually produce something
others are willing to buy.
Following chart is showing the lack of competitiveness of European
labor [www.thegartmanletter.com]
It is no surprise that Greece, Spain and Italy score
the worst.
A clear sign we are coming close to a breaking point is
the fact that the yield of each additional created Dollar/Euro has become
NEGATIVE. In
other words, whatever amount of new money/debt is created, it won't be
able to lift the economy out of the recession/depression. In order to
survive authorities will continue to create debt/fiat paper money and this
action will result in Hyperinflation. Those trusting the Government (those
holding on to bonds and paper money will loose their savings). The danger
is that "The Accident" can happen overnight....better be prepared!
The UK will
eventually go bankrupt (like it did twice in the past). Ireland, Greece,
Belgium, Portugal, UK, Spain, France and Italy will follow.
A country goes bankrupt by redeeming its debt...in
official terms it is called a debt moratorium.
Gold and the dollar
keep moving into critical periods. Gold is correcting
into a daily cycle low that should bottom this week. The next Gold up
wave will take $-Gold to $ 1300 and eventually to $ 1460-$1500 . Options
are set to expire this week so we could see further pressure in gold and
silver until then.
Russian
Billionaires double their wealth. Who would have
thought in 1989 we would even have Russian Millionaires? Russia (USSR)
and China stopped reading and applying the theories of Karl Marx!...more
Tuesday April 20, 2010
Public debt sustainability has exploded as a serious issue in
advanced economies. Today it is most noticed in the
euro zone's “FPIIGS”— France, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and
Spain—but also in many larger OECD economies, including the U.S. These
issues within the euro zone stem primarily from a loss of compositeness,
high wage growth and labor costs which outstripped productivity,
undisciplined fiscal policies (too much taxation and regulation) and,
crucially, the appreciation of the euro between 2002 and 2008. This will
result in higher interest rates and a much lower bond market. Bonds are an option to buy Fiat Paper Money and
their final value will be ZERO. Debt Monetization has already
started and it will in due time initiate Hyperinflation. It always does!
Got Gold?
Sovereign debt tops IMF worries. We warned our
subscribers and readers about this more than one year ago...more
Mission Impossible: escape from Europe. Europeans
respond to volcanic crisis by selling alternate means of transportation
at astronomically high prices...more
Crude Oil saw a swift violent correction but the bull run is still
intact...more
$-Gold is just doing what it must do before it can resume the bull
run...more
Monday April 19, 2010
Life in Europe has almost come to a standstill because of the
irresponsible way European Politicians have handled the volcanic
eruption in Iceland. Let politicians run a
healthy company and before you know it runs at a loss and
becomes a disaster. They say that if one takes the politician's brains
and put it into a bird it will fly backwards. The reality is - and we
have the proof now - the birds actually stop flying! Europe has become an old lady and visiting
this continent has in many ways become scary as it has regressed in so
many ways. It will be extremely hard for the EU to crawl out of the
economic depression. If possible at all. Worst case scenario it becomes
a North-African extension.
Apart from the huge quantities of CO2 (150,000 to 200,000 Tonnes)
emitted daily into the nature because of the eruption (global warming?)
the financial world resumed its activity as
usual....no important changes are noticed and trends keep moving in the
same directions.
Saturday April 17, 2010
It's
the bankers who were bailed out with your money!
Yesterday was Gold-options-expiration Friday.
When the investment banks have a vested interest in
making sure the call options they sold expire absolutely worthless.
Yesterday saw also a Key Reversal on the Euro Dow.
We expect a correction towards the 200 day Moving
Average...nothing more and higher World Stock Markets later this
year.
Reading a good book is enough to understand what is going on right
now and that the Herd is led by the nose. Governments
actually are not incompetent as most people think. IT is a lot worse:
they are CORRUPT!...more
Hyperinflation was often delayed until all the Good Money (gold,
silver) had been chased away by the Bad Money. [Law
of Gresham] The bond market is in trouble and the Fed will need to start
monetizing a greater portion of the debt. This is going to facilitate a
transition to a period of powerful inflation. As the Fed increases
printing and debt monetizing, foreign central banks will stop buying
U.S. debt and countries such as China, Japan and Russia are going to
aggressively begin to dump their treasuries and dollar reserves.
If the money consumed by public debt was invested in the private
sector we would have NO unemployment. The GDP
(domestic product) would explode and and the standard of living rise
dramatically.Each government job (and this
includes indirect government jobs) takes away 2 or more jobs in the
private sector.
Hyperinflations are caused by Government budget deficits.
Budget deficits amounting to 40% and more of
expenditures cannot be maintained and always lead to Hyperinflation.
Also the decrease of the real stock of national currency is a general
characteristic of Hyperinflations. When inflation begins builder,
manufacturers and traders experience the fact that they can sell
their goods for higher prices than expected. They incorrectly interpret
this as an increase in demand and adjust their business accordingly. But
as time goes by they realize that because of the rising inflation they
have in fact been operating at a lower profit or at a loss.
Friday April 16, 2010
Derivatives
and structured products are a financial Nuke Bomb and even the French,
Germans and Italians used them: these derivatives are sitting
every where like a hidden cancer and the consequences are DRAMATIC and
scary! (Bloomberg) -- The worst global financial crisis in 70 years
arrived in Saint-Etienne (France) this month, as embedded financial
obligations began to blow up. A bill came due for € 1.18 million
($1.61 million) owed to Deutsche Bank AG under a contract that initially
saved the French city money. The 800-year-old town refused to pay,
dodging for now one of 10 derivatives so speculative no bank will buy
them back, said Cedric Grail, the municipal finance director. They would
cost about 100 million euros to cancel today, he said. "It's a joke that
we're in markets like this," said Grail, 38, from the 19th-century city
hall fronted by an arched facade and the words Liberté, Egalité,
Fraternité. "We're playing the dollar against the Swiss franc
until 2042." Saint-Etienne is one of thousands of public
authorities across Europe that tried to shave borrowing expenses by
accepting derivatives deals whose risks they couldn't measure. They may
be liable for billions of euros, according to the Bank of Italy and
consulting and law firms in France and Germany. As global economies
climb out of recession, the crisis is hitting Saint-Etienne in central
France, Pforzheim in western Germany and Apulia, an Italian
regional government on the Adriatic. They may pay for their bets
into the next generation...[If
you have No physical Gold and/or Silver...try to sleep after you have
read this!]...more
The irony is that the financial institutions that sold
the derivatives were many of the same ones that received government
bailouts to weather the worst global credit crisis since the 1930s:
Royal Bank of Scotland, Dexia Brussels/Paris and Deutsche Bank. These
mechanisms actually helped to defer interest payments [read keep
interest rates artificially low] - NO DOUBT THIS WILL COME BACK WITH A
VENGEANCE -
Germany, Italy, Poland and
Belgium also used derivatives to manage fiscal deficits. More than
1,000 municipalities in France had 11 billion euros in “risky”
contracts at the end of 2009. A judge charged Deutsche Bank,
JPMorgan, Zurich-based
UBS AG and Depfa Bank Plc (Hypo Real Estate bank) with
fraud linked to the sale of derivatives to the City of Milan,
Italy’s financial and fashion capital.
The story of our long term candle charts: for most
stock markets the respective Objectives of the Reversed Head and
Shoulder patterns have in many cases been reached...more
Fractional reserve Gold [at least 100:1]: The
investment bank gold business is actually a fractional-reserve scheme
that cannot produce even a large fraction of the gold claims it has
sold.Gold has risen for a decade
despite unfriendly selling by central banks and the Gold cartel is said to be in Panic.
Government sources widely proclaim the
banking sector
has recovered and the economy is turning around, with no
challenge from a complacent press. Actually what I
read in the world financial press most of the time is of a rather poor
quality. People are not faring better economically when 35% more lost
their homes than a year before and when each month unemployment figures
are surprisingly higher. [Propaganda].
Today
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was sued by the
SEC for
fraud tied to the CDO's . was sued
by U.S. regulators for fraud tied to collateralized debt obligations
(derivatives/structured products) that contributed to the worst
financial crisis since the Great Depression.
The firm’s shares tumbled as much as 16 % and financial
stocks slumped...more[other financials risking similar actions are JPMorgan, HSBC,
Deutsche bank, Citibank, Bank of America]
Short term bearish signal confirmed for the
Financials/Banks.We expect this will impact the
World Stock markets in general as bank/financials make up an
important part of the SE-indexes.
Thursday April 15, 2010
This
is the Never Ending Story. As the Herd makes the
price, in the beginning we are always greeted by denial and ignorance.
The Herd prefers to believe the lies and stories preached by the
Authorities, well speaking politicians, sexy looking television speakers
and sportsmen. Give or take a Soros. As time goes by and our scenario
unfolds at first there is disbelief and a belief that what we see will
only be short lived. Only in the end when the Herd thinks it is a
lost cause the stampede starts and prices go parabolic (up or down).
Being an 'old chap' I often look with disbelief to the way many people
invest: chasing short term signals and acting contrary to the
fundamentals and technical situation of the financial markets like a
untrained pilot makes an IFR approach without even knowing what an ILS
(instrument landing system) is and how to use it...until they
get stuck and silenced by the reality.
Dollar made the kiss of death yesterday. It fell
through its recent floor of support near 80.20 on the USDollar Index and
is very close to confirming a topping formation. A pair of closes below
79.75 would get the attention of the hedge funds. Keep in mind that the
last Commitment of Traders report shows a fairly large speculative long
position in this market. If that key technical level gets taken out, an
avalanche of sell orders are going to be activated.
Once confirmed the break down of the
Dollar will further push up the price
of Gold and
Silver.
In the mean time Gold will consolidate just under the $
1165 (last important resistance level before $ 1225).
The Gold and Silver mines index has successfully tested its reversal
point...more
It goes beyond belief that even professional investors keep investing
in Bonds
which are nothing more than an option to buy worthless
Fiat Paper money and are for this reason not worth a cent more.
The Zimbabwe World stock markets
keep rising. The Dow took back the 11,000 level
without a lot of noise as the SP500 broke through the 1200 level...we
still think however the markets are overextended and a correction is
plausible.
The Zim even affects the
Bank shares. Last
month we predicted the breakout and trend reversal of the Bank index
which is happening now. Because of the bearish trend when expressed in
Gold and the bad fundamentals, we advise to stay away. Beware: too much, too fast and
too high also applies when stocks are up! Bullish sentiment is so high a
correction must in some way be in the make!
The existence of the EU and the Euro are under pressure as it becomes
clear the EURO and the EU is nothing but a HUGE political BLUNDER.
You must indeed be a crook or an idiot to advocate that
civilizations and economies which are so different from each other can
be centralized/globalized. In the mean time these countries will have to
carry out "internal devaluations" - or deep wage cuts - to bring their
economies back into line with North Europe. Debt costs must be serviced
from a shrinking economic base. Such a policy will push these
states into debt-deflation spiral and CANNOT not work. [ FPIGS or
France, Portugal, Italy Ireland, Greece, Spain]
Wednesday
April 14, 2010 - When the end comes, it will be a surprise even to those
who expect it.
Up to you to risk a life time of
savings! In this war no prisoners will be taken. Those not
preparing themselves NOW will come to late and Fortunes will be lost!
- [The danger being that the present monetary policy sends FALSE signals
to the Entrepreneurs...who for this reason conclude Austrian economists
are idiots]...more: Derivatives or why
Quantitative Easing cannot and will not stop!
The delusions of modern economists are many, such as central
banking’s believed containment of inflation, what economists such as
Paul Samuelson and Ben Bernanke call “the great moderation”, which is,
in fact, but a communal delusion; a collective and fatal error the
consequences of which have yet to be fully experienced.
The leading
economies have fallen victim to a dangerous illusion, related to the
anarchic development of global capital and credit markets. … the
thesis is very straightforward: that both citizens and governments
have become heavily addicted to borrowing and no longer care about the
consequences.[Prof.Feteke]
While the
European elites were correct that the Anglo-American empire was
vulnerable; they were wrong in believing the euro would provide a
meaningful alternative as the euro, like the dollar, would not be backed
by gold and can freely be multiplied.
What we see at
present is a battle between the central banks and the collapse of the
financial system fought on two fronts. On one front, the central banks
preside over the creation of additional liquidity for the financial
system in order to hold back the tide of debt defaults that would
otherwise occur. On the other, they incite investment banks and other
willing parties to bet against a rise in the prices of gold, oil, base
metals, soft commodities or anything else that might be deemed an
indicator of inherent value. Their objective is to deprive the
independent observer of any reliable benchmark against which to
measure the eroding value, not only of the US dollar, but of all fiat
currencies. Equally, their actions seek to deny the investor the
opportunity to hedge against the fragility of the financial system by
switching into a freely traded market for non-financial assets.
Keeping the bond markets open is absolutely vital at a time when
corporate profitability is on the ropes. Keeping the equity index on an
even keel is essential to protect the wealth of the household sector and
to maintain the expectation of future gains. For as long as these
objectives can be achieved, the value of the US dollar can also be
stabilized in relation to other currencies, despite the extraordinary
imbalances in external trade.[ Darryl
Robert Schoon]
Crude Oil could well be the factor who
will push the World stock markets into the next correction.
Morgan Stanley managed to survive the Great Depression.
We doubt however that MS will be able to survive the
Modern Great depression as it is one of those financial institutions
with the largest exposure to Derivatives.
Tuesday April 13, 2010
Gold, Silver and Gold and Silver shares are overbought but
all moving averages are moving up in unison and daily,
weekly and monthly technical indicators show a similar constellation.
For $-Gold there is not a lot of resistance between now and the all time
high...we just need to give it some time....
Gold and Silver equities are still sitting pretty close to their
uptrend line. Hence a severe correction can be ruled
out.
Our long term $-Silver candle chart sits in a HUGE bullish triangle.
A breakout can occur at any time and the price objective is $ 30...more
Last week we wrote World Stock markets were overbought
and the least we have to expect is a consolidation of the
gains...more
Expressed in Real Money or Gold we still have a solid down trend...more
BONDS are an accident waiting to happen. Don't
forget Governments are holding the level of interest rates artificially
lowso they can cover their
deficits at the lowest possible price. Soon the Interest Rates will go
up in a revenge pushed by [hyper]inflation...more
.In the mean time the Authorities will [with the help of derivatives
and Fiat Paper Money and the stupidity of the Savers] do whatever they
can to keep the Bonds rates from breaking down of the huge Bearish HS
pattern.
Copper hits 20 month high. We had a breakout
of a huge Reversed Head and Shoulders formation and must first test the
breakout level before the climb will be resumed...more
Platinum broke out of its halfway stop and the next objective is the
2008 top...more
The Oil index - will we have three taps and a break out for Oil
shares!?...more
UK trade deficit narrows as weak pound finally starts to have effect.
This is the natural economic reaction of a 30%
cheaper currency. Imports get more expensive and come down but Exports
are also cheaper and more goods are exported. The balance of Trade
corrects and so does the balance of payments. This automatism has
stopped existing for all of the countries which became part of the EU
and the EURO. A stupidity it was...more
. Only Oligopoly, Monopoly (Globalism) and Politicians [it pays for
their jobs] profit of a single currency. Every body else looses.
US trade gap widened in February. This tells us
that contrary to the exchange rate for the British Pound, the exchange
rate for the Dollar is still too high...more
Monday April 12, 2010
Jeff
Christian of CPM Group continues to step in crappy paper as he tries to
explain how the gold and silver markets really are just fine --
as long as gold and silver buyers don't actually take
delivery of their metal. If Christian is
the best the central banks and bullion banks can muster as a defense of
the gold and silver price suppression schemes as those schemes begin to
draw major media scrutiny, the market rigging may be nearing its end.
The Gold pool wasn't able to control Gold in the 1960's....it won't be
able today as the ratio physical gold to paper gold is 1:100
The
section World Indexes has been updated...moreJuly 2009 we forecasted an objective of 12,500 for the Dow Jones
industrial index...more
We NEVER
hided we don't like Banks
for their Immorality. [fractional
reserve banking] What they did to Greece they
did to other countries, municipalities and cities...more
It's a dangerous place to be but 'in nominal paper money' the trend is
up!
For those
calling us pessimists we forecast a Dow of 30,000 and higher.
Today we are fairly sure we shall see a Dow Jones industrial index of
30,000 and higher over the coming years. Unfortunately this will be
nothing more than a FIAT MONEY level as we foresee the World Stock
market indexes will continue to crash when expressed in Real Money or
Barbaric Gold.
For those
calling us pessimists we just want to remember we started to advise to
buy Gold in 2001 (when Gordon Brown sold the Gold of
the British) and that we foresee $ 1300 in a not to distant future and
higher levels. Non-believers must check Gold in the different sections
(Pound, Euro,...) and write down the objectives we foresee now.
Gold and
Silver juniors have been updated...still some buys
around...more
Gold and
Silver stocks are bullish and we still find BUYS...more
China
trade figures $ 7 bn in the red...or exactly what Von Mises economics
predict. China is a HOCG
country and will suffer in an leveraged way from the depression...more
Saturday April 10, 2010
Over the Easter weekend, 7
nuclear reactors throughout the United States stopped operations
[Green idiots don't realize you
need to break the eggs to make the omelet]. , and
natural gas prices skyrocketed by over 20%. And this was when most of
the country was enjoying mild weather and businesses were shut for the
long weekend.
Pelosi's Health care bill
is adding another head to the already large Governmental Monster.
No wonder the US Unemployment figure stopped raising...more
Friday April 9, 2010
There
is a life for the Euro beyond Greece.
[there is a bullish hanging man on the candle chart for the €/$]
There is NO way the ECB will let Greece go down.
Such would at this point break apart the EU and have
disastrous consequences for the European economy. Once the Greek
problems fade away, we may or we may not see more problems in Europe.
At the same time the American
problems keep growing and the day will come these will take over the
Newspaper Headings and stop the free ride of the Dollar.
This doesn't mean that in the end we are positive the EU and/or the Euro
will disappear...ANYTHING
will be done to rescue Greece!. One reason we have not
seen an all-on collapse - yet - is that the US government has stepped in
and has borrowed and spent a literal $3 trillion over the last two years
for the purpose of hiding the insolvency of virtually every bank and a
good number of citizens in this nation, along with virtually every
pension plan, annuity and other "defined benefit" plan and institution.
They also changed the rules of the game regarding asset valuations.
Unlike the 2008 collapse I don't think you're going to get any warning
at all this time around. The reason is that the gearing that has been
taken on and the bets being placed are several times as large as those
of the last time. The distortions in the economy today, net-on-net, are
nearly triple what we saw in 2007.
Fitch brings Greece's rating down to BBB-. In other
words Greek government bonds are just ONE step away of junk bonds.
Los Angeles faces thread of Insolvency. A bitter
political dispute between this city's elected leaders and its powerful
municipal utility threatens to push the city into insolvency as early as
next month...more
Bonds are nothing more but an option to buy
Fiat Paper money. Those holding Greek bonds are being
slaughtered and in fact deserve nothing more. It is only a matter
of time before the Bond holders of Italian, French, Spanish, Portuguese
but also American debt will undergo the same...more
. The way the interest rates
were artificially slashed down by Authorities during the past decennia
is nothing more than PREMEDITATED THEFT. more...
The gold shares stand on the
cusp of a major breakout. Most Gold stocks technical
setup produce a similar conclusion. This formation implies at
least a double in price after the breakout.
Rarely have I seen a time when such a large and vocal consensus of
brokerage house analysts and Wall Street traders are convinced that
natural gas prices will wallow below $6.00 for the next several years.
The greatest returns are when a
widely-held belief of investors proves incorrect.
Markets exist to accommodate a range of
participants with divergent views or economic interests, so it is hardly
a surprise that almost any position can be justified somehow. Those who
judge the position right are rewarded, while those who do not are
penalized.
The Australian Central Bank (RBA) raised interest rates to 4.25%
yesterday. We expect interest rates all over the
world to go up the coming months and reading between the lines this is
also what both Bernanke and Trichet are telling us.
Gold has been acting like a currency and is
and will go up relative to all currencies: Gold in Pound broke out of a bullish
triangle, Gold in SA Rand and
Aussie Goldbounced up its trendline, Yen Gold shows a triple top breakout, Swiss Gold shows a double top
breakout,
The Dow Jones and other Stock markets are stalling
and are initiating a correction expressed in Fiat Money.
Following Wall Street newspaper heading is absolutely ridiculous:
The recently ended recession was longer and deeper than any in the U.S.
since World War II, but experts disagree over whether it deserves the
'Great Recession' label.!!??...more
Misery for British motorists as petrol hits £6 per gallon.
Only days ago we warned for the consequences of rising
oil and commodity prices and a weak Euro and British pound...A
perfect storm of rising wholesale costs, the weak pound and more
Government tax hikes will propel fuel costs even higher. Drivers were
warned to brace themselves for a 5p-a-litre surge in the next three
months, pushing unleaded prices to a 125p a liter average by the summer
holidays...more
Thursday April 8, 2010
Credit
default swaps are being used as the hammer to destroy nations.
They are doing this by shorting sovereign debt, then
using the media to bring about the profit of their position. The players
doing this have no conscience, are oblivious to the side effects, are
power crazed, and believe they are gods. In the end they will like Louis
XVI and Marie-Antoinette be taken to the Guillotines to be beheaded.
Sovereign debt is the next bomb to implode and as this happens Credit
Default Swaps and their ruthless issuers will go down the drain with
Governments.
The day this financial CDS-Nuke bomb explodes, there will be no place
to hideand all those
PLAYING the financial markets will be destroyed in a whim.
It's all in the price is especially true for Real Estate.
While € 150,000 buys you a 35 year old worn out hump of bricks (no
kitchen, no AC, no isolation, no garage) in Europe, the same amount of
money buys you a NEW 3000 sq. f (300 sq.m.) home in the USA. SALES we
have and this is the time to act!...more
Social unrest in Alicante - Spain, Kyrgyzstan, Bangkok - Thailand
declares state of emergency....a logic
consequence of the mismanagement of society by politicians and bankers.
We'restill not out of the Woods for the
exchange rate between the Dollar and the
Euro. For the last months the Dollar has been moving
up against the Euro: the bullish wedge correction. Our subscribers however were been informed
in time which Fiat Money currencies would be better to hold. And
stronger they are: Aussie, Canadian Dollar and Swiss franc! A couple of
weeks ago we added a 4th fiat currency...more
The world is now so dependent on Oil that even during a major
economic crisis the demand for oil has remained on a
high level [contrary to the 1980's]. he transition form Oil to other
energy sources will be have consequences as important as the appearance
of the Steam train and the invention of the Automobile. Also Complex
Societies (the EU and the USA) will not survive the expensive energy...more
South African gold mines are at this level
being given away...see
charts
OTC derivatives have multiplied wealth like a fractional reserve
banking system, but they’re hollow. When someone can
no longer provide a guarantee, the system collapses or at least part of
it does. Investors and the public have been too cavalier in their
approach to risk...more
Crude Oil and Commodities not only go up
because we have Peak Oil and Chinese demand but also
because all major currencies are
mortally damaged and the central bank franchise system of monetary
management has failed in spectacular fashion.
Natural Gas looks set to repeat the “out of the hole” performance of
the Dow and the FXI from the 2008/2009 respective
lows.
The upward boost of the gold market is in progress, whether or not people
wish to see it. We told you so!
All the stories about Gold manipulation, Gold Cartels, fractional
Gold, a Goldless IMF [Almost every single claim of
impropriety, price suppression, falsified accounting, corruption in
metals exchanges, and treason by US and British financial leaders lodged
by GATA have come to be proven true] .etc...come together in
our PF charts. In the end these never lie and save a
lot of time...more...Having said
this you have to be an absolute IDIOT to short Gold and/or Silver and
even GOD will - in the long run - be unable to stop the Bull run.
Prechter will have to eat his Hat before the summer ends.
According to Santelli we
can see $ 4 gas and $150 oil before the Summer cools down [Oil is $ 87
now]. If the Dollar doesn't reverse its course against the Euro soon (we
have no doubt it will) , we don't know how they will keep the
European cars on the road as gas hits € 2 for 1 liter ($ 10 per
gallon)...more
World Stock Markets are overbought and we expect at least a
correction. This ain't the time to to play Russian
roulette. Better make sure your investments are made wisely and that you
have requested physical delivery of the Gold and Silver your purchased.
Those who get too optimistic about the actual bull run of the Stock
markets, MUST check on our PF charts of these Stock
markets expressed in Real Barbaric Money...click
here..
The IMF (international monetary fund) may not have the Gold it claims
to have...more
Lies,
lies, damn lies....Not later than last week Talking Heads (Media) were
confirming Bernanke was halting Quantitative Easing.
The following chart proof that in fact the opposite is
happening. But propaganda keeps the Titanic afloat (for the time being).
Tuesday April 6, 2010 - Ride the Golden Commodity
wave!
The
recovery is around the corner!
This is
what the Newspapers and politicians were pretending right before the
worst of the Great Depression was to happen. Today ain't different!
According to Wall Street,
the latest data on weekly jobless claims provides further evidence that
the economy is on the mend. What a disillusion this will be! The graph
below need no comment and the trend and dramatic level applies both for
Europe and the USA. If we would adjust the number by deducting the
jobs which are directly and indirectly provided by government, it would
look a lot worse. Amazing is
that it is so easy to fool the actual generation. Amazing it is that -
as Ludwig von Mises explains it - it is so easy to sent out incorrect
signals to the modern managers ...!? The poor generation is so busy
chasing money that they forget or don't think necessary to make their
home work. Why is it so hard to understand that Fiat paper money and
Bonds (an option to buy Fiat Money) will end being worthless?
Gold
confirms the break out of its bullish wedge...and
keeps going up in Euro, British Pound
[bullish triangle],
South African rand, Japanese
Yen, Swiss Franc,
Aussie, ...March 2, 2010 we wrote Gold was behaving
like it sat in a pressure cooker.
There are
two ways of handling your savings.
One is to have a random walk in Wall Street and/or on other Stock
markets and buy/sell whatever seems to be a good investment at a certain
time. The other and better one is to make your home work and invest
according to what the fundamental and technical analyze tells you. The
latter offers you a stable portfolio and more important less stress and
a peace of mind.
As the price of Crude Oil
and Commodities is breaking out, the EU will have
little option but to do something about the weakening Euro...one plausible option is that the
ECB will raise its key interest rate. On the other side of the Atlantic
the failing American Treasury auction will also force the FED to raise
its key interest rate. If and when INTEREST RATES are raised (we
all know Authorities do sell their mother) it will break the back of the
Real Estate Market and have an impact on the World Stock markets.
ONLY GOLD EQUITIES WILL SURVIVE
RAISING INTEREST RATES.
One Canadian Loonie = one
American Dollar! ...more...
Monday April 5, 2010
- a Bank Holiday in Europe -
We
wish our readers a Happy Eastern will bring lots of golden
eggs, a better understanding of what is year after year remembered
during the Holy week and Eastern and a better understanding of what is
happening in the financial markets and the world right under our eyes.
Although we talk a lot about money and Gold, history learns the
adoration of Golden calves always brought death and destruction.
Thought of the day: Few people remember how during the Great
Depression there was an Alcohol prohibition and how people were
brainwashed Alcohol was bad, killed people and destroyed families.
Alcohol production and consumption went underground [many will remember
the Hollywood movies about Elliott Ness and Al Capone]. What we see
today is a fresh run against Alcohol with a zero tolerance of
alcohol when driving a car (especially in Europe) and a move towards a complete
ban of Smoking tobacco. There is no doubt drinking and driving
is dangerous, so is smoking but the Authorities are - just like during the
Great Depression - using it as a means to increase income (fines) and
control of the Herd. Having said this, we're about to see the
legalization of Marihuana in Californian and we already have a large
tolerance of it's use in the Netherlands.
Real Estate in Britain to go lower:
Capital Economics' Ed
Stansfield tells Robert Miller that houses are still over-valued and
prices will fall further in 2010...more...
Only 4 banks had to close in the US on Good Friday.
Taxation and regulation is killing Europe.
Double taxation agreement between Spain
and Denmark void. Thousand of pensioners either have to pay 50% more tax
or return to live in Denmark.
US delays decision on China currency manipulation
.The Irony is that all countries pursue
the same (a low currency exchange rate) and that the strongest succeed.
The West has sold its manufacturing to the East by too much taxation and
regulation. To reverse the process, one must reverse the levels of
taxation and regulation and not point the finger to somebody else.
Where Copper goes, Gold and Silver will go.
Copper broke out of the
bullish Reversed Head and Shoulders pattern and Platinum
broke out of a bullish flag!...click
here for more....
Natural Gas and Coal are also preparing a fresh bull
run...click here...
Crude Oil has - as we
expected - broken out again.
Mining groups fear backlash in South-Africa as Eugene
Terreblanche was hacked to death
in his farm in Transvaal. Whatever is written, South-Africa will not
jeopardize the Mining Industry (Anglo
American, but Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Xstrata)
and only means of income overnight. The day however that ownership of
the Mines return into black hands it will be Zimbabwe II (SA is about 10
years behind Zimbabwe)...click
here for more...
Technically
the Dollar could have seen the end of its Bullish wedge correction.
Remember we warned for a key reversal only days ago...click
here for more....
Similar
conditions occur for the Euro/Dollar...click
here...
Friday April 2, 2010
Stochastics
on the daily, weekly and monthly candle charts for Gold and Silver mines
are to move in concerto. This is anindication we
could see an important bull run ...click
here for more...
In the past I have tried to explain that Derivatives and Credit
Default Swaps are a financial nuke bomb. Those
who prefer to live in denial will sooner or later have to deal with the
consequences.
U.S. and European officials
are trying to craft new rules to regulate the $450 trillion private
derivatives market in broad efforts to avoid another financial
crisis." I believe we are in a cabal. There are five or six players
only who are engaged and dominant in this marketplace and apparently
they own the regulatory apparatus," he said. "Everybody is afraid to
regulate them."
We cannot emphasize it
enough. We have seen the Historic top for
Bonds
and those who don't get out will over
the next months and years loose the major part of their savings.
Especially if there is a connection with Credit Default Swaps and
Structured products (or so said loss free investment vehicles brewed
by the Banks)
Remarkable breakout
of Gold expressed in Yen...click
here...
Steady goes the South
African Rand against the Euro...click
here..
Steady goes the
Aussie against the Euro...click
here...
Steady goes the
Canadian Dollar against the Euro...click
here...
Seems that the free
ride of the Dollar is also over against the Swiss Franc....click
here...andFitch Downgrades Illinois to A-minus
[remember last week Fitch downgraded Portugal]
Silver is running better than Gold is and
it is breaking out of the bullish wedge...click
here...
As of today about 85%
of the advisors are bearish on Gold.
Excellent news and extremely bullish (Commercials are also building off
short positions)
Customer service is Europe has become almost
inexistent. In the eyes of most
business people, the customer is nothing more than a prey of which one
must try to take as much advantage as possible (money) in as
little time as possible...The Europeans are reading Karl Marx and
at this point the same symptoms are appearing I saw in Eastern Europe
and the USSR in the years preceding the crash of their system in 1989.
It is absolutely devastating to see a complete society falling into this
human and economic Abyss!
World stock markets expressed in nominal
terms remain very strong...click
here to see our PF charts. Volume has been falling for some time
now...but stock markets keep going up pushed by the Zimbabwe effect.