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Agriculturals

Updated September 20, 2022 -  a Breakout we have and BREAKOUTS point to Hyperinflation: ALL commodities flash BUY signals!

wheat cropA BOTTOM, BEAR TRAPS, and the bullish wedges are coming alive and resulting in dramatic price rises...is this the beginning of the HYPERINFLATION? Remember the years and months preceding the Weimar Hyperinflation...EXACTLY the same scenario we had as we have today (July 2015)

So as Agriculturals go, so goes GOLD!
2017 was a NIÑA year...2018 was a DRY year, and 2019 will be an EXPENSIVE year. 2020 will be an inflation year. 2021 and or 2022/23 will be Hyperinflation years.

Because of stupid mismanagement, authorities have eliminated the natural forces, which usually correct for food shortages, and are therefore making the present situation worse than it would have been without intervention. Additionally, Goldman Sachs & Co. could have RIGGED prices in this sector.

"Can you believe that some stupid-petty-government-officer in Brussels is deciding about the Agricultural sector in the EU?!"

People KNOW food is getting extremely expensive. Anybody doing some shopping also knows that $ 1 for one tomato is no exception, and when the price for a food item goes up from $ 1 to $ 1.20, this is, in fact, a 20% increase.

Volcanic activity and eruptions are predominant factors for bad crops. This will add fire to food prices going up due to monetary inflation. Expect to see politicians blame speculation and Global Warming for the direct consequence of their own stupidities (killing the goose with the golden eggs). Expect more social unrest as FOOD becomes EXPENSIVE! + 150% year to year or FOOD has become VERY EXPENSIVE and will become even more expensive in 2011! Since 2004 agricultural prices have gone up by 267% when expressed in Dollars and 215% when expressed in euros.

agriculturals

Agricultural commodities traditionally suffer during depressions - until Hyperinflation starts...Agricultural products are Low Order Consumer Goods! - and the dramatic rise we have now indicates we're going to see much more inflation soon.

pork foodAgricultural products are LOCG (low order consumer goods). 2009 proves the price action of 2008 was a Bear Trap. September 3, 2010, we have a CLEAR fresh breakout! There is no doubt this will have a severe impact on the cooked official inflation figures. The price of Agricultural products fluctuates differently compared to the price of other commodities as a shortage in supply can and is adjusted a lot faster. Farmers automatically plant more crops when prices go up. Most of the time, Miners need 5 to 7 years to adjust production. The price of crude oil is also essential for farming as it affects the exploitation price (fertilizers are also oil derivatives).

Especially in Europe (just like at the time of the USSR), the stupid politicians made the cost of food (pork) has become cheaper than the cost of feeding the pigs. Such is not only the result of political intervention but also one of the effects of Fractional Reserve banking and the creation of fiat money out of thin air...

Green colored charts = Bull trends, Red = bear trends, White = sideward & we don't know yet!  
CORN WHEAT SOYBEANS SUGAR
CORN candle2 WHEAT candle2 SOYB candle3 SUGAR candle3
CORN - Breakout & Uptrend
WHEAT - Breakout & Uptrend
SOYB - Breakout & Uptrend
Sugar - Breakout & Uptrend
eCORN candle2 eWHEAT candle2 eSOYB candle3 eSUGAR candle3
$-Cocoa-breakout Euro-Cocoa-breakout Coffee  
COCOA candle3 eCOCOA candle3 COFFEE candle3 <<<<Uptrends - DO NOT BUY FUTURES...BUY GOLD & SILVER!!!
Note: Agriculturals (except sugar) have broken out !!!

Over the last year, many food commodities have broken long-term inflation-adjusted downtrends. This suggests that while characteristically volatile and subject to weather events, most food commodity prices can be expected to sustain levels above their historical norms during corrective phases.

CORN WHEAT    
CORN pf1 WHEAT pf1    
eCORN pf1 eWHEAT pf1    
Corn Wheat    

The FOOD factor is (like energy) vital for Society. Historically, a food shortage or expensive food has resulted in significant societal shifts. Belgian became independent in 1830 (there was a depression atcannes that time), and the driving forces behind the French Revolution were the agricultural disasters of 1770-90. [ remember the people standing at the gates of the King's palace in Versailles complaining there was no food for the children...and Marie-Antoinette telling them that in this case, they should eat Cake. Today is no different - Sanchez (Spain) forces people to switch off the Airco under 27 Degrees Celcius and not to heat unless colder than 19 degrees Celsius.]

The situation in North Africa and the Middle East directly results from expensive food. Those countries feel more pain as their fiat currencies have traditionally been weak because of their Rulers' mismanagement.

 

GKX pf1
Short term candle Chart Comments
GKX candle1
  • Jan 21 - March 22, 2016: BOTTOM
  • Jan 18 - Feb 18, 2017: Breakout?
  • Feb 15, 2018: more bottom building.
  • July 16: BOTTOM
  • Aug 28 - April 27, 2019: Bottom + Sideward
  • May 28: The Index is coming ALIVE with a BIG VOLUME
  • July 1st - Oct 25, 2020: Breaking out a BULLISH WEDGE.
  • Nov 23: a BREAKOUT we have...up to HYPERINFLATION!
  • Jan 16 - Feb 13, 2021: a DRAMATIC and SCARY BREAKOUT.
  • Mar 22: index is already up by 30%!
  • Apr 20: VERY BULLISH!
  • June 25 - Oct 25: Correction over and ready for a new bull run!
  • Nov 29 - Feb. 20, 2022: still a BULLISH TREND.
  • Mar. 20: Target hit...and we have a "Double Top Breakout."
  • May 22: Will the BREAKOUT be confirmed? If so, expect HIGHER.
  • June 25: Oversold and support.
  • July 8: potential Bull Trap = caution.
  • Aug. 23 - Sep. 20: ready for HIGHER!
 Long term candle
GKX candle2 small

 

food-price1 

1830 Tempo famine in Japan, expensive food in Europe
1870 Taipan famine in China: 60 million die
1879 Famine in Ireland
1916 Winter famine in Rusland
1921 Famine in Rusland: 1/3 of the population dies
1941 - 1946 Famine in Rusland & Persian Gulf
1947 Russian famine: 1.5 million people die
1959-1961 Chinese famine: 43 million die
1967 - 1997
Bulgaria
1995 - 2010
Romania
2009 Zimbabwe's food crisis thanks to Mugabe
2012 Hyperinflation in Iran
2013 Hyperinflation in Venezuela
2021-2022
Hyperinflation in Turkey and Lebanon.

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