US Dollar
February 3, 2026: Gold is the ultimate measure tool for the dollar!
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| USDEUR & US Dollar index | ||||
Dollar-Index  |
$-Index | USDEUR | Dollar-Index |
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| Bearish Target |
0.95 - 0.96 | 0.82 |
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| Support | 0.95 - 0.96 | 0.82 | ||
| Resistance | 1.05 |
1.02 |
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| Bearish potential | na | 0.72 | ||
| Tech. pattern | Bottom trend channel?! | Bottom trend channel?! | ||
| The Dollar index: (Euro 58.6%, Japanese yen 12.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, the Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, the Swiss franc 3.6%) | ||
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| CRITICAL LEVEL - STOP? | Long Candle - Backtest or Bottom?! | The 7-8-year cycle is still bullish. |
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The Dollar index: (Euro 58.6%, Japanese yen 12.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, the Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, the Swiss franc 3.6%) |
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| Short-term candle |
Chart comment |
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| Long-term candle |
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The logic is that the US dollar will be the last to fall, and all other currencies will crash before it does. What happened on August 10, 2018, proves it!
One should not become BULLISH on the US dollar and bearish on the Euro prematurely. [old warning]
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| USD - Secular Downtrend is INTACT | USD 15-year cycle | |||||||||
 
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In the USA, hyperinflation is looming, and food prices are rising daily. A weaker Dollar will only accelerate the process. The biggest enemy of the USA was and is manufactured by the Americans themselves. It is commonly referred to as the US dollar or the Greenback. The day non-Americans stop trusting the dollar, it will flow back to the USA in a massive way, CRASH the dollar's exchange rate, and trigger hyperinflation.
| The U.S., as the issuer of the global reserve currency by fiat, knows it truly means "nonpayment." |
The "Strong Dollar Policy" of the US Treasury is a policy of supporting the dollar at key technical points, allowing it to decline in an orderly fashion. This has existed since the dollar traded in the mid-125 area on the USDX.
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Our opinion: In the medium term, hyperinflation is likely to be inevitable. The situation is dire. Gold is the best (and only) hedge against deflation and inflation. The bulk of your financial assets should be gold, supplemented by well-thought-out shares. By the end of 2017, the USA is about to enter an era of hyperinflation; give it some time, and any Dollar-dependent Economy will follow. The U.S. credit rating has finally been downgraded by Standard & Poor's, and I have no doubt some insiders have made a significant profit from it. The results will not only be a crashing Dollar. The US Treasuries will follow in sequence. Confidence is lost... and that is extremely dangerous. Most South American Fiat currencies are pegged to the Dollar. Even the Chinese Yuan is (de facto) still pegged to the Dollar. Most Western Banks hold substantial amounts of Dollars in their reserves...Imagine the impact of a failing Dollar. Especially so for the EMERGING MARKETS. It is so bad that most people don't even want to believe it can and will happen. |
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- The Dollar Index (a 'de facto' barometer of the Dollar/Euro exchange rate) must break above 1.00 to confirm the Trend Reversal.
- Growth driven by strong consumption and government spending leads to currency weakness, precisely what the US has been doing for years. For this reason, the Dollar will lose at least 50% of its current value against major currencies. In 2009, the British pound lost approximately 30% of its value. But the Euro is not worth a cent more...
- As the dollar slides, more countries will likely settle for crude oil and other commodities in euros, yuan, yen, and even gold (Iran). Since 1970, the U.S. dollar has lost 80% of its value, and it isn't over yet. The dollar will disappear, the euro will explode, and I expect they could try to ram a SINGLE currency down our throats when it does. However, learning history is challenging, especially in Europe.
- As capital flees Europe and the USA, it will increasingly flow to SAFE HAVENS (the yen and sterling face severe problems, and other currencies, such as Norway's and Sweden's, are too small to absorb the large capital flows). Today, no natural, safe havens remain except for gold and Silver. That said, currencies such as the Swiss franc, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar are considered safer than the US dollar and the Euro. Any currency not tied to the US dollar or the Euro is safer.
- Expect the ultimate disruption of the international monetary system due to the growing insolvency of the dollar, resulting from the unending accumulation of foreign "dollar balances" that constitute foreign claims, and the ensuing widespread inflation. The endgame could start at any time, and I expect a Grand Finale before 31 December 2017. If the dollar were not a reserve currency, it would have collapsed a long time ago. Americans are excellent marketers, and so far, the dollar's status has been maintained with the help of the Army and Hollywood.
The Petrodollar is the misunderstood Achilles' heel of the US dollar. As more and more world trade (OIL, NATURAL GAS) is invoiced and paid in NON-DOLLAR CURRENCIES, it increasingly undermines the Dollar...until the Greenback breaks through its support level. When this happens, HELL will break loose, and neither the CENTRAL BANK nor the FED will be able to halt the DOLLAR crash.- The existence of “petrodollars” is one of the pillars of America’s economic might, as it creates a significant external demand for the US dollar, allowing the country to accumulate enormous debts without defaulting. If a Japanese buyer wants to purchase a barrel of Saudi oil, they must pay in dollars, even if no American oil company is involved in handling the said barrel. For so long, the dollar has held a dominant position in global trade that even Gazprom’s European natural gas contracts are priced and settled in US dollars. Until recently, a significant part of the EU-China trade had been priced in dollars.
- Whether the dollar strengthens or weakens against the euro, the British pound, and other fiat currencies is irrelevant, as all are essentially worthless pieces of paper that will disappear in their current form over the coming years. Because the dollar is the reserve currency, short-term exchange rate fluctuations between the euro and the dollar will be distorted and potentially dangerous. The USA (debt) is in worse shape than Europe and has been leveraged by DERIVATIVES. When the Roosters (Dollars abroad) return home, it will be a disaster...
- The "Strong Dollar Policy" of the US Treasury is a policy of supporting the dollar at crucial technical points, allowing it to decline in a controlled and orderly fashion. This has existed since the dollar traded in the mid-125 area on the USDX.
- To avoid inflation, high interest rates, and volatile commodity prices, the first step is to avoid wars. (By 2020, the Defense expenditures will eat most of the US budget). The second step is to remove the power of printing money (+34% y/y) from the government’s hands. The real bubble is the Dollar! We are witnessing the end of fiat currencies, led by the US dollar. In September 2014, it became clear that the U.S. was seeking War to postpone the final crash of the US dollar.
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