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  • The majority is never right. Never, I tell you! That’s one of these lies in society that no free and intelligent man can ever help rebelling against. Who are the people that make up the biggest proportion of the population — the intelligent ones or the fools? I think we can agree it’s the fools, no matter where you go in this world, it’s the fools that form the overwhelming majority.

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US Dollar

June 17, 2024: Gold is the ultimate measure tool for the dollar!

  • The U.S. Dollar is becoming fragile. Everyone should exit this currency (and other currencies) as much as possible.
  • The rising price of commodities, such as gas and oil, is the only reason the Dollar is not collapsing and staying strong.
  • A temporarily higher dollar resulted from the market incorrectly, NOT expecting higher oil and commodity prices (Dec 21)!
  • Technically speaking, because of the BULL TRAP earlier this year, we are 95% sure that the dollar index will break DOWN (= continue to weaken)...The December breakdown spells a WEAK DOLLAR for 2021 and beyond.
  • No sane country will ever hold its reserves in US dollars or other currencies at a bank that the US government can directly or indirectly control (May 2022). The EU, Switzerland, and the USA seized Russian assets and dollars, confirming this statement.

USDEUR & US Dollar index
Dollar-Index   $-Index USDEUR Dollar-Index
Bearish Target
0.92 - 0.62 0.82
Support 1.00
Resistance 1.05
Bullish potential 1.14 ??
Tech. pattern SIDEWARD
The Dollar index: (Euro 58.6%, Japanese yen 12.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, the Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, the Swiss franc 3.6%)
Short Candle
Long Candle - critical
The 7-8-year cycle is bearish

USDEUR pf1   

The Dollar index: (Euro 58.6%, Japanese yen 12.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, the Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, the Swiss franc 3.6%)

Short Term candle
Chart comment
USD candle1
  • Nov 16-17 - Dec 12, 2016: Top of Trading Range - Quadruple top
  • Jan 4, 2017: We have a BEARISH DIVERGENCE...
  • May 17: A quadruple top or the US dollar is breaking down as expected.
  • Jan 3 - 16 -25, 2018: SUPPORT is broken!!
  • Jan 3 - Feb 4, 2019: Sideward?? - Aug 26: Topping out...
  • Jan 7 - Feb 4, 2020: downtrend
  • Dec 18 - Mar 3, 2021: Breakdown = Expect a weaker Dollar.
  • Jan. 13 - Feb. 8, 2022: The dollar was clubbed like a baby seal back into the red for the year...expect a weaker dollar until at least the Summer of 2022
  • Mar. 3 - 10: A strong dollar we have because of the Ukraine conflict, much higher oil & natgas prices, and much higher commodity prices. All have still to be paid in US dollars. This will remain so until the Dollar is no longer the reserve currency. Expect the Dollar to weaken once the Ukraine problem is solved.
  • Nov. 22: High Pole Reversal = bearish
  • Jan. 9, 2023: Weak during yearend = weak during 6 months.
  • Feb. 16: Overbought and running into resistance. - a clear SELL
  • Mar. 28 - Apr. 15: Note the bearish crossover of the Moving Averages
  • Sep. 23: More sideward action....or an extension of the 'halfway flag.'
  • Nov. 4 - Dec. 11 - Jan. 6, 2024: Bearish Reversal.
  • Feb. 13: note the SIDEWARD pattern.
  • Mar. 7: Weaker but still inside the trading channel.
  • Mar. 18 - May 12: we had a spinning bottom and a day reversal. Expect a somewhat stronger Dollar inside the trading channel.
  • June 17: Sideward.
Long Term candle
USD candle2

The logic is that the US dollar will be the last man standing, and all other currencies will crash BEFORE the US dollar does...what happened on August 10, 2018, proves it!

One should not prematurely become BULLISH on the US dollar and bearish on the Euro. [old warning]

USD - Secular Downtrend is INTACT USD 15-year cycle
Real dollar value Bullish ??
Bull trap...or Trend Reversal!?
USD month1
Halfway stop & 2nd down-leg  SELL The Secular Bear Trend

In the USA, hyperinflation sits around the corner, and right now, the food markets have a lot of work marking up the prices daily! A weaker Dollar will only accelerate the process. The biggest enemy of the USA was and is manufactured by the Americans themselves. It is called the US-Dollar or Greenback. The day non-Americans stop trusting the Dollar, these will massively flow back to the USA, CRASH the exchange rate of the Dollar, and initiate Hyperinflation.

The U.S. issuing the global reserve currency by fiat knows it truly means "nonpayment."

The "Strong Dollar Policy" of the US Treasury is a policy of support of the dollar at key technical points so that the dollar will decline in an orderly fashion. This has existed since the dollar traded in the mid-one hundred and twenty-five area on the USDX.

Our opinion:

In the medium term, hyperinflation is inevitable. The situation is dire. Gold is the best (and only) hedge against deflation and inflation. The better part of your financial assets should be gold, augmented by well-thought-out shares. Not later than the end of 2017, the USA is about to enter an era of Hyperinflation,...give it some time, and any Dollar-dependent Economy will follow. The credit rating for the USA has finally been taken down by Standard & Poor's, and I have no doubt some insiders have made a big profit from it. The results will not only be a crashing Dollar. The US Treasuries will follow in sequence. Confidence is lost...and such is extremely dangerous.

Most South American Fiat currencies are pegged to the Dollar. Even the Chinese Yuan is (de facto) still pegged to the Dollar. Most Western Banks hold substantial amounts of Dollars in their reserves...So, try to imagine the impact of a failing Dollar. Especially so for the EMERGING MARKETS. It is so bad that most people don't even want to believe it can and will happen.

  • This is perverse. The current course guarantees the destruction of the U.S. dollar. Again, I cannot emphasize enough how serious this is—people worldwide save dollars. If the dollar is destroyed, it won't just hurt Americans. It will be all the hard-working people worldwide who've struggled to scrimp, save, and put money away for future needs. All these people who were wise and frugal are going to be wiped out. They are going to be left with absolutely nothing. This is criminal - it's the stuff revolutions are made of. And that's precisely what I expect we'll see plenty of all around the globe.
  • Understanding WHY the Dollar went up in 2008 and is strong this 9/11 weekend helps us understand why it came down and will continue to fall. Impressive is how similar today's scenario is to the Weimar crisis in Germany...the Dollar was going up for the wrong reasons!
  • Never forget that many more dollars are floating around than euros, and most Western central banks keep dollars in their forex reserves.

  • The Dollar Index (a 'de facto' barometer for the Dollar/Euro exchange rate) must break through the 1.00 level to confirm the Trend Reversal.
  • Growth driven by strong consumption and government spending leads to currency weakness – precisely what the US has been doing for years. For this reason, the Dollar will lose not less than 50 % of its present value against key major currencies. [ 2009, the British pound lost 30%]. But the Euro is not worth a cent more...
  • As the dollar slides, more and more countries will settle for crude oil and other commodities in euros, yuan, yen, and even gold (Iran) Since 1970, the Dollar has lost 80% of its value....and it ain't over yet! The dollar will disappear,  the euro will explode, and I expect they could try to ram a SINGLE currency through our throats when it does. But learning history is challenging, especially in Europe.

  • Capital will, as it flees Europe and the USA, increasingly travel to SAFE HEAVENS  ( the yen and the sterling have severe problems, and other currency markets like Norway and Sweden are too small to absorb the large flow of capital). Today, no natural, safe heavens are left but Gold and Silver. Having said this, currencies like the Swiss,Australian, and Canadian Dollar are safer than the US dollar and the Euro. Any currency with no ties to the US dollar and/or Euro is safer.
  • Expect the ultimate disruption of the international monetary system because of the growing insolvency of the dollar resulting from the unending accumulation of foreign "dollar balances" that constitute foreign claims and the ensuing widespread inflation. The end game can start any time now, and I expect a Grand Finale before 31 December 2017. If the dollar were no reserve currency, it would have collapsed for a long time. Americans are excellent marketers, and so far, the dollar's status has been maintained with the help of the Army and Hollywood.
  • The Petrodollar is the misunderstood Achilles heel of the US dollar. As more and more world trade (OIL, NATURAL GAS) is invoiced and paid in NON-DOLLAR-CURRENCIES, it increasingly undermines the Dollar...until the Greenback breaks through its support level. When this happens, HELL will break loose, and neither the CENTRAL BANK nor the FED will be able to halt the DOLLAR crash.
  • The existence of “petrodollars” is one of the pillars of America’s economic might because it creates a significant external demand for American currency, allowing the US to accumulate enormous debts without defaulting. If a Japanese buyer wants to buy a barrel of Saudi oil, he has to pay in dollars even if no American oil company ever touches the said barrel. For so long, the dollar has held a dominant position in global trading that even Gazprom’s European natural gas contracts are priced and paid for in US dollars. Until recently, a significant part of the EU-China trade had been priced in dollars.
  • Whether the dollar will strengthen or weaken against the euro, the British pound and other paper money systems are irrelevant as both are worthless paper money that will disappear in their basic form over the following years. Because the dollar is the reserve currency, the short-term exchange rate fluctuations between the euro and the dollar will be perverted and dangerous. The USA (debt) is in worse shape than Europe and has been leveraged by DERIVATIVES. When the Roosters (Dollars abroad) return home, it will be a disaster...
  • The "Strong Dollar Policy" of the US Treasury is a policy of support of the dollar at crucial technical points so that the dollar will decline in an orderly fashion. This has existed since the dollar traded in the mid-one hundred and twenty-five area on the USDX.
  • If you want to avoid inflation, high interest rates, and volatile commodity prices, the first step is to avoid wars.  (By 2020, the Defense expenditures will eat most of the US budget). The second step is to take the power of printing money (+34 % y/y) out of the government’s hands. The real bubble is the Dollar! We see the end of the Fiat Currencies unfolding, led by the Dollar. In September 2014, it became clear the U.S. was seeking War to postpone the final crash of the US-Dollar.

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AUGUST'18 (public)

“The winner takes it all, the loser standing small” (Abba song) is the next phase in the world economy.

Categories: Gold-$, Silver, US Dollar, News, The Gold pool, Euro and €-Gold, Oil Shares, World Stock Market Indexes

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