US Dollar
Updated December 5, 2018: The dollar index : Trump wants a CHEAP Dollar but it will be the last man standing!
The Dollar may get smashed down when markets realize the mistake Yellen & Powell made....mind the support & Resistance levels on the PF chart!
| Technically speaking, because of the BULL TRAP earlier this year, we are 95% sure that the Dollar-index will break DOWN (= continue to weaken)...We may however see a TOP versus the Euro this month of November 2018... |
In the USA, Hyperinflation sits around the corner and right now the Food markets have a lot of work in marking up the prices each day! A weaker Dollar will only accelerate the process. The biggest enemy of the USA was and is manufactured by the Americans themselves. It is called the US-Dollar or Greenback. The day non-Americans stop trusting the Dollar, these will massively flow back to the USA, CRASH the exchange rate of the Dollar and initiate Hyperinflation.
| The U.S. issuing the global reserve currency by fiat knows full well it truly means "non payment". |
The "Strong Dollar Policy" of the US Treasury is a policy of support of the dollar at key technical points so that the dollar will decline in an orderly fashion. This has been in place since the dollar was trading in the mid one hundred and twenty-five area on the USDX.
| USDEUR & US Dollar index | ||||
![[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]](https://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif) |
Bearish Target |
0.72 - 0.60 | 0.74 | Dollar-Index
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| Support | 0.95 - 0.935 |
0.91 - 0.88 - 0.82 | ||
| Resistance | 0.88 |
0.96-0.98 |
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| Bullish potential | 1.02 | 0.98 - 1.00 | ||
| Technical pattern | $-Index - sideward |
USDEUR - short term Top |
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| The Dollar index: (Euro 58.6%, Japanese yen 12.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, Swiss franc 3.6%) | |
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| Short Candle | Long Candle |
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The Dollar index: (Euro 58.6%, Japanese yen 12.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, Swiss franc 3.6%) |
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| Short Term candle |
Chart comment - PF chart is Euro/Dollar; Candle charts are USD-index |
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| Long Term candle |
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The logic is that the US-Dollar will be the last man standing and all other currencies will crash BEFORE the US-Dollar does...what happened on August 10, 2018 proofs it!
One should not prematurely become BULLISH on the US-Dollar (and bearish on the Euro).
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| USD - Secular Downtrend is INTACT | USD 15 year cycle |
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Our opinion: In the medium term, hyperinflation is inevitable. The situation is very serious. Gold is the best (and only) hedge against both deflation and inflation. The better part of your financial assets should be in gold, augmented by well-thought-out shares. Not later than end of 2017 the USA is about to enter an era of Hyperinflation,...give it some time and any Dollar dependent Economy will follow. The Credit rating for the USA has finally been taken down by Standard & Poor's and I have no doubt some insiders have made a big profit out of it. The results will not only be a crashing Dollar. The US Treasuries will follow in sequence. Confidence is lost...and such is extremely dangerous. Most South American Fiat currencies are pegged to the Dollar. Even the Chinese Yuan is (de facto) still pegged to the Dollar. Most Western Banks hold important amounts of Dollars in their reserves....So try to imagine what the impact will be of a failing Dollar. It is so bad most people don't even want to believe it actually can and will happen. |
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The Dollar Index (which is a 'de facto' barometer for the Dollar/Euro exchange rate) must break through the 1.00 level to confirm the Trend Reversal. This is happening NOW!...
Growth driven by strong consumption and government spending leads to currency weakness – that is exactly what the US has been doing for years. For this reason the Dollar will lose not less than 50 % of its present value against key major currencies. [ 2009 the British pound lost 30%]. But the Euro is not worth a cent more....
As the Dollar slides, more and more countries will settle for Crude Oil but also for other commodities in Euro's, Yuan and Yen...and even in Gold (Iran) Since 1970 the Dollar has lost 80% or its value....and it ain't over yet! The Dollar will disappear, the Euro will explode and I expect they could will try to ram a SINGLE currency through our throats when it does...but History learns such is extremely difficult. Especially in Europe.
| Real dollar value | Bearish |
Bull trap!? |
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| Halfway stop & 2nd down leg | SELL- Aug 2015 | Secular bear Trend is INTACT |
Capital will, as it flees Europe but also the USA , increasingly travel to SAFE HEAVENS ( the Yen, the Sterling have severe problems - other Currency markets like Norway and Sweden are too small to absorb the large flow of capital) . Today there are no real safe heavens left but Gold and Silver. Having said this, currencies like the Swiss , Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar are safer than the US-Dollar and the Euro. As a matter of fact any currency which has no ties to the US-Dollar and/or Euro is a safer place to be.
Expect the ultimate disruption of the international monetary system because of the growing insolvency of the dollar resulting from the unending accumulation of foreign "dollar balances" that constitute foreign claims, and by the ensuing widespread inflation. The end game can start any time now and I expect a Grand Finale before 31 December 2017. If the Dollar was no reserve currency, it would have collopased by long. Americans are excellent marketeers and so far the status of the dollar has been maintained with the help of the Army and Hollywood.
The Petrodollar is the misunderstood Achilles heel of the US-Dollar. As more and more world trade (OIL, NATURAL GAS) is invoiced and paid in NON-DOLLAR-CURRENCIES this increasingly undermines the Dollar...until the Greenback breaks though its support level. When this happens, HELL will break loose and NO CENTRAL BANK nor the FED will be unable to halt the crash of the DOLLAR.
The existence of “petrodollars” is one of the pillars of America’s economic might because it creates a significant external demand for American currency, allowing the US to accumulate enormous debts without defaulting. If a Japanese buyer want to buy a barrel of Saudi oil, he has to pay in dollars even if no American oil company ever touches the said barrel. Dollar has held a dominant position in global trading for such a long time that even Gazprom’s natural gas contracts for Europe are priced and paid for in US dollars. Until recently, a significant part of EU-China trade had been priced in dollars.
Whether the Dollar will strengthen or weaken against the Euro, the British Pound and other paper money systems is irrelevant as both are Worthless Paper Money which will disappear existing in their actual form over the next years. Because the Dollar is THE Reserve Currency the short term exchange rate fluctuations between i.e. the Euro and the Dollar will be perverted and dangerous. The USA (debt) is in worse shape than Europe is in...and has been leveraged by DERIVATIVES. When the Roosters (Dollars abroad) come back home it will be a disaster...
The "Strong Dollar Policy" of the US Treasury is a policy of support of the dollar at key technical points so that the dollar will decline in an orderly fashion. This has been in place since the dollar was trading in the mid one hundred and twenty-five area on the USDX.
If you want to avoid inflation, high interest rates, and volatile commodity prices, the first step is to avoid wars. (by 2020 the Defense expenditures will eat most of the US budget). The second step is to take the power of printing money (+34 % y/y) out of the government’s hands. The real bubble is the Dollar! What we see now is the end of the Fiat Currencies unfolding leaded by the Dollar. September 2014 it becomes clear the USA is actually seeking War to postpone the final crash of the US-Dollar.
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