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US Dollar

Updated August 5, 2022: The dollar index:  Double Bearish Divergence & Ukraine-panic-buy-climax = SELL!

rotating dollar
  • The U.S. Dollar is becoming a fragile currency. EVERYBODY should be out of this currency as much as possible.
  • The rising price of commodities, gas & oil, is the only reason the Dollar is not collapsing and staying strong. This is because most commodities, especially OIL & Natural Gas, are invoiced in (petro) US-Dollar. (Oct 2021).
  • Temporary higher Dollar was the consequence of the Market incorrectly NOT expecting higher Oil and commodity prices (Dec 21)!
  • Technically speaking, because of the BULL TRAP earlier this year, we are 95% sure that the Dollar-index will break DOWN (= continue to weaken)...The December breakdown spells a WEAK DOLLAR for 2021 and beyond.
  • No sane country will ever hold its reserves in US dollars or other currencies at a bank that the US government can directly or indirectly control. (May 2022)

USDEUR & US Dollar index
Dollar-Index [Most Recent USD from]   $-Index USDEUR Dollar-IndexUSD pf2
Bearish Target
0.88 - 0.82 0.74 - 0.72
Support 0.90 - 0.88
0.82 - 0.80
Resistance 0.99
Bullish potential 1.02 0.96
Tech. pattern Bearish Divergence
 The Dollar index: (Euro 58.6%, Japanese yen 12.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, Swiss franc 3.6%)
USD candle1 USD candle2 USD candle3
Short Candle
Long Candle - critical
7-8 year cycle is bearish

USDEUR pf1   

The Dollar index: (Euro 58.6%, Japanese yen 12.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, Swiss franc 3.6%)

Short Term candle
Chart comment
USD candle1
  • Nov 16-17 - Dec 12, 2016: Top of Trading Range - Quadruple top
  • Jan 4, 2017: We have a BEARISH DIVERGENCE...
  • May 17: quadruple top or the US-Dollar is breaking down as expected.
  • Jan 3 - 16 -25, 2018: SUPPORT is broken!!
  • Jan 3 - Feb 4, 2019: Sideward?? - Aug 26: Topping out...
  • Jan 7 - Feb 4, 2020: downtrend
  • Dec 18 - Mar 3, 2021: Breakdown = expect a weaker Dollar at least until the Summer of 2021.
  • Dec 21: Created by the NOT expected higher Oil and commodity prices
  • Jan. 13 - Feb. 8, 2022: The dollar was clubbed like a baby seal back into the red for the year...expect a weaker dollar until at least the Summer of 2022
  • Mar. 3 - 10: a strong dollar we have because of the Ukraine conflict, much higher oil & natgas prices, and much higher commodity prices. All have still to be paid in US-Dollar. This will remain so until the Dollar is no longer the reserve currency. Expect the Dollar to weaken once the Ukraine problem is solved.
  • Apr. 6: expect the Dollar to weaken even if the Ukraine problem is not resolved. Short-term indicators now also call for a lower Dollar.
  • May 4 - July 22 - Aug 5: a SUPER SELL at this level.
Long Term candle
USD candle2

The logic is that the US-Dollar will be the last man standing, and all other currencies will crash BEFORE the US-Dollar does...what happened on August 10, 2018, proves it!

One should not prematurely become BULLISH on the US-Dollar (and bearish on the Euro). [is old warning]

Dollar cycles 1 Dollar cycles 2
 USD - Secular Downtrend is INTACT  USD 15-year cycle
dollar cycles since 1973
Real dollar value Bearish
Bull trap!?
USDGold LT USD month USD month1
Halfway stop & 2nd down-leg  SELL- Aug 2015 The secular bear Trend resumed

In the USA, Hyperinflation sits around the corner, and right now, the Food markets have a lot of work in marking up the prices daily! A weaker Dollar will only accelerate the process. The biggest enemy of the USA was and is manufactured by the Americans themselves. It is called the US-Dollar or Greenback. The day non-Americans stop trusting the Dollar, these will massively flow back to the USA, CRASH the exchange rate of the Dollar, and initiate Hyperinflation.

The U.S. issuing the global reserve currency by fiat knows full well it truly means "nonpayment."

The "Strong Dollar Policy" of the US Treasury is a policy of support of the dollar at key technical points so that the dollar will decline in an orderly fashion. This has been in place since the dollar was trading in the mid-one hundred and twenty-five area on the USDX.

Our opinion:

In the medium term, hyperinflation is inevitable. The situation is dire. Gold is the best (and only) hedge against both deflation and inflation. The better part of your financial assets should be in gold, augmented by well-thought-out shares. Not later than the end of 2017, the USA is about to enter an era of Hyperinflation,...give it some time, and any Dollar dependent Economy will follow. The Credit rating for the USA has finally been taken down by Standard & Poor's, and I have no doubt some insiders have made a big profit out of it. The results will not only be a crashing Dollar. The US Treasuries will follow in sequence. Confidence is lost...and such is extremely dangerous.

Most South American Fiat currencies are pegged to the Dollar. Even the Chinese Yuan is (de facto) still pegged to the Dollar. Most Western Banks hold substantial amounts of Dollars in their reserves...So try to imagine what the impact will be of a failing Dollar. Especially so for the EMERGING MARKETS. It is so bad that most people don't even want to believe it can and will happen.

  • This is perverse. The current course guarantees the destruction of the U.S. dollar. Again, I cannot emphasize enough how serious this is. People all around the world save in dollars. If the dollar is destroyed, it won't just be Americans who're hurt. It will be all the hard-working people worldwide who've struggled to scrimp, save, and put money away for future needs. All these people who were wise and frugal are going to be wiped out. They are going to be left with absolutely nothing. This is criminal - it's the stuff revolutions are made of. And that's precisely what I expect we'll see plenty of, all around the globe.
  • Understanding WHY the Dollar went up in 2008 and is strong this 9/11 weekend helps us understand why it came down and will continue to fall. Impressive is how similar today's scenario is to the Weimar crisis in Germany...the Dollar was going up for the wrong reasons!
  • Never forget there are a LOT more dollars floating around than euros, and most Western central banks keep Dollars in their Forex reserves.

  • The Dollar Index (which is a 'de facto' barometer for the Dollar/Euro exchange rate) must break through the 1.00 level to confirm the Trend Reversal.
  • Growth driven by strong consumption and government spending leads to currency weakness – that is precisely what the US has been doing for years. For this reason, the Dollar will lose not less than 50 % of its present value against key major currencies. [ 2009, the British pound lost 30%]. But the Euro is not worth a cent more...
  • As the Dollar slides, more and more countries will settle for crude oil and other commodities in Euro, Yuan, and Yen...and even in Gold (Iran) Since 1970 the Dollar has lost 80% of its value....and it ain't over yet! The Dollar will disappear,  the Euro will explode, and I expect they could try to ram a SINGLE currency through our throats when it does...but History learning is challenging. Especially in Europe.

  • Capital will, as it flees Europe and the USA, increasingly travel to SAFE HEAVENS  ( the Yen and the Sterling have severe problems - other Currency markets like Norway and Sweden are too small to absorb the large flow of capital). Today there are no natural, safe heavens left but Gold and Silver. Having said this, currencies like the Swiss,Australian Dollar, and Canadian Dollar are safer than the US-Dollar and the Euro. As a matter of fact, any currency with no ties to the US-Dollar and/or Euro is safer.
  • Expect the ultimate disruption of the international monetary system because of the growing insolvency of the dollar resulting from the unending accumulation of foreign "dollar balances" that constitute foreign claims and by the ensuing widespread inflation. The end game can start any time now, and I expect a Grand Finale before 31 December 2017. If the Dollar were no reserve currency, it would have collapsed for a long. Americans are excellent marketers, and so far, the dollar's status has been maintained with the help of the Army and Hollywood.
  • petrodollarThe Petrodollar is the misunderstood Achilles heel of the US-Dollar. As more and more world trade (OIL, NATURAL GAS) is invoiced and paid in NON-DOLLAR-CURRENCIES, this increasingly undermines the Dollar...until the Greenback breaks through its support level. When this happens, HELL will break loose, and NO CENTRAL BANK nor the FED will be unable to halt the DOLLAR crash.
  • The existence of “petrodollars” is one of the pillars of America’s economic might because it creates a significant external demand for American currency, allowing the US to accumulate enormous debts without defaulting. If a Japanese buyer wants to buy a barrel of Saudi oil, he has to pay in dollars even if no American oil company ever touches the said barrel. For so long, the dollar has held a dominant position in global trading that even Gazprom’s European natural gas contracts are priced and paid for in US dollars. Until recently, a significant part of the EU-China trade had been priced in dollars.
  • Whether the Dollar will strengthen or weaken against the Euro, the British Pound, and other paper money systems are irrelevant as both are Worthless Paper Money that will disappear existing in their actual form over the following years. Because the Dollar is THE Reserve Currency, the short-term exchange rate fluctuations between, i.e., the Euro and the Dollar will be perverted and dangerous. The USA (debt) is in worse shape than Europe and has been leveraged by DERIVATIVES. When the Roosters (Dollars abroad) come back home, it will be a disaster...
  • The "Strong Dollar Policy" of the US Treasury is a policy of support of the dollar at crucial technical points so that the dollar will decline in an orderly fashion. This has been in place since the dollar was trading in the mid-one hundred and twenty-five area on the USDX.
  • If you want to avoid inflation, high-interest rates, and volatile commodity prices, the first step is to avoid wars.  (by 2020, the Defense expenditures will eat most of the US budget). The second step is to take the power of printing money (+34 % y/y) out of the government’s hands. The real bubble is the Dollar! We see the end of the Fiat Currencies unfolding, led by the Dollar. In September 2014, it becomes clear the USA is actually seeking War to postpone the final crash of the US-Dollar.

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AUGUST'18 (public)

“The winner takes it all, the loser standing small” (Abba song) is the next phase in the world economy.

Categories: Gold-$, Silver, The Gold pool, US Dollar, News, Euro and €-Gold, Oil Shares, World Stock Market Indexes

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