US Dollar
June 8, 2025: Gold is the ultimate measure tool for the dollar!
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| USDEUR & US Dollar index | ||||
Dollar-Index  |
$-Index | USDEUR | Dollar-Index |
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| Bearish Target |
0.95 - 0.96 | 0.82 |
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| Support | 1.00 |
0.88 |
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| Resistance | 1.05 |
1.02 |
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| Bullish potential | 1.14 | ?? |
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| Tech. pattern | STOP!? | STOP!? |
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| The Dollar index: (Euro 58.6%, Japanese yen 12.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, the Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, the Swiss franc 3.6%) | ||
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| Short Candle - OVERBOUGHT = expect lower. | Long Candle - STOP!? | The 7-8-year cycle is bearish. |
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The Dollar index: (Euro 58.6%, Japanese yen 12.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, the Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, the Swiss franc 3.6%) |
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| Short-term candle |
Chart comment |
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| Long-term candle |
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The logic is that the US dollar will be the last man standing, and all other currencies will crash before the US dollar does. What happened on August 10, 2018, proves it!
One should not prematurely become BULLISH on the US dollar and bearish on the Euro. [old warning]
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| USD - Secular Downtrend is INTACT | USD 15-year cycle | |||||||||
 
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In the USA, hyperinflation is looming, and currently, the food markets are busy daily, marking up prices. A weaker Dollar will only accelerate the process. The biggest enemy of the USA was and is manufactured by the Americans themselves. It is commonly referred to as the US dollar or the Greenback. The day non-Americans stop trusting the dollar, this will massively flow back to the USA, CRASH the dollar's exchange rate, and initiate hyperinflation.
| The U.S., as the issuer of the global reserve currency by fiat, knows it truly means "nonpayment." |
The "Strong Dollar Policy" of the US Treasury is a policy of supporting the dollar at key technical points, allowing it to decline in an orderly fashion. This has existed since the dollar traded in the mid-125 area on the USDX.
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Our opinion: In the medium term, hyperinflation is likely to be inevitable. The situation is dire. Gold is the best (and only) hedge against deflation and inflation. The better part of your financial assets should be gold, augmented by well-thought-out shares. Not later than the end of 2017, the USA is about to enter an era of Hyperinflation,...give it some time, and any Dollar-dependent Economy will follow. The credit rating for the USA has finally been downgraded by Standard & Poor's, and I have no doubt some insiders have made a big profit from it. The results will not only be a crashing Dollar. The US Treasuries will follow in sequence. Confidence is lost...and such is extremely dangerous. Most South American Fiat currencies are pegged to the Dollar. Even the Chinese Yuan is (de facto) still pegged to the Dollar. Most Western Banks hold substantial amounts of Dollars in their reserves...So, try to imagine the impact of a failing Dollar. Especially so for the EMERGING MARKETS. It is so bad that most people don't even want to believe it can and will happen. |
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- The Dollar Index (a 'de facto' barometer for the Dollar/Euro exchange rate) must break through the 1.00 level to confirm the Trend Reversal.
- Growth driven by strong consumption and government spending leads to currency weakness, precisely what the US has been doing for years. For this reason, the Dollar will lose at least 50 % of its present value against key major currencies. In 2009, the British pound lost approximately 30% of its value. But the Euro is not worth a cent more...
- As the dollar slides, more countries will likely settle for crude oil and other commodities in euros, yuan, yen, and even gold (Iran). Since 1970, the Dollar has lost 80% of its value... and it isn't over yet! The dollar will disappear, the euro will explode, and I expect they could try to ram a SINGLE currency down our throats when it does. However, learning history is challenging, especially in Europe.
- As capital flees Europe and the USA, it will increasingly travel to SAFE HAVENS ( the yen and sterling have severe problems, and other currency markets like Norway and Sweden are too small to absorb the large flow of capital). Today, no natural, safe havens remain except for gold and Silver. Having said this, currencies like the Swiss franc, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar are considered safer than the US dollar and the Euro. Any currency with no ties to the US dollar and/or Euro is safer.
- Expect the ultimate disruption of the international monetary system due to the growing insolvency of the dollar, resulting from the unending accumulation of foreign "dollar balances" that constitute foreign claims, and the ensuing widespread inflation. The endgame can start at any time now, and I expect a Grand Finale before 31 December 2017. If the dollar were not a reserve currency, it would have collapsed a long time ago. Americans are excellent marketers, and so far, the dollar's status has been maintained with the help of the Army and Hollywood.
The Petrodollar is the misunderstood Achilles' heel of the US dollar. As more and more world trade (OIL, NATURAL GAS) is invoiced and paid in NON-DOLLAR CURRENCIES, it increasingly undermines the Dollar...until the Greenback breaks through its support level. When this happens, HELL will break loose, and neither the CENTRAL BANK nor the FED will be able to halt the DOLLAR crash.- The existence of “petrodollars” is one of the pillars of America’s economic might, as it creates a significant external demand for the US dollar, allowing the country to accumulate enormous debts without defaulting. If a Japanese buyer wants to purchase a barrel of Saudi oil, they must pay in dollars, even if no American oil company ever handles the said barrel. For so long, the dollar has held a dominant position in global trading that even Gazprom’s European natural gas contracts are priced and paid for in US dollars. Until recently, a significant part of the EU-China trade had been priced in dollars.
- Whether the dollar will strengthen or weaken against the euro, the British pound, and other fiat currency systems is irrelevant, as both are essentially worthless paper money that will disappear in their current form over the coming years. Because the dollar is the reserve currency, short-term exchange rate fluctuations between the euro and the dollar will be distorted and potentially dangerous. The USA (debt) is in worse shape than Europe and has been leveraged by DERIVATIVES. When the Roosters (Dollars abroad) return home, it will be a disaster...
- The "Strong Dollar Policy" of the US Treasury is a policy of supporting the dollar at crucial technical points, allowing it to decline in an orderly fashion. This has existed since the dollar traded in the mid-125 area on the USDX.
- To avoid inflation, high interest rates, and volatile commodity prices, the first step is to avoid wars. (By 2020, the Defense expenditures will eat most of the US budget). The second step is to remove the power of printing money (+34% y/y) from the government’s hands. The real bubble is the Dollar! We see the end of fiat currencies unfolding, led by the Dollar. In September 2014, it became clear the U.S. was seeking War to postpone the final crash of the US dollar.
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