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  • The majority is never right. Never, I tell you! That’s one of these lies in society that no free and intelligent man can ever help rebelling against. Who are the people that make up the biggest proportion of the population — the intelligent ones or the fools? I think we can agree it’s the fools, no matter where you go in this world, it’s the fools that form the overwhelming majority - Henrik Ibsen.


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US Dollar

Updated Sep 16, 2021: The dollar index: CAUTION - a breakdown!

rotating dollar

The U.S. Dollar is becoming a fragile currency. EVERYBODY should be out of this currency as much as possible.

Technically speaking, because of the BULL TRAP earlier this year, we are 95% sure that the Dollar-index will break DOWN (= continue to weaken)..
The December breakdown spells a WEAK DOLLAR for 2021.

The Dollar is initiating a fresh down leg (as we forecasted)....mind the support & Resistance levels on the PF chart! Expect a WEAKER Dollar until at least the end of 2021.

USDEUR & US Dollar index
[Most Recent USD from] Bearish Target
0.88 - 0.82 0.74 - 0.72

USD pf2

Support 0.90 - 0.88
0.82 - 0.80
Resistance 0.92
Bullish potential 1.02 0.96
Technical pattern $-Index: bearish
 The Dollar index: (Euro 58.6%, Japanese yen 12.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, Swiss franc 3.6%)
USD candle1 USD candle2 USD candle3
Short Candle
Long Candle - critical
7-8 year cycle is bearish

USDEUR pf1   

The Dollar index: (Euro 58.6%, Japanese yen 12.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, Swiss franc 3.6%)

Short Term candle
Chart comment
USD candle1
  • Nov 16-17 - Dec 12, 2016: Top of Trading Range - Quadruple top
  • Jan 4, 2017: We have a BEARISH DIVERGENCE...
  • May 17: quadruple top or the US-Dollar is breaking down as expected.
  • Jan 3 - 16 -25, 2018: SUPPORT is broken!!
  • May 6 - May 26: Spinning Top and running into resistance = BEARISH
  • Jan 3 - Feb 4, 2019: Sideward?? - Aug 26: Topping out...
  • Jan 7 - Feb 4, 2020: downtrend
  • Nov 5: ready for a new down leg.
  • Dec 18 - Mar 3, 2021: Breakdown = expect a weaker Dollar at least until the Summer of 2021.
  • Apr 7 - May 10: expect a lower Dollar over the coming weeks.
  • June 10: CRITICAL
  • July 5 - 20: A SELL it is (Overbought)
  • Aug 9: Overbought and running into resistance.
  • Aug 30 - Sep 16: Bearish Wedge completed = LOWER we shall see. Also, mind the Bearish Divergence on the candle chart.
Long Term candle
USD candle2

The logic is that the US-Dollar will be the last man standing and all other currencies will crash BEFORE the US-Dollar does...what happened on August 10, 2018 proofs it!

One should not prematurely become BULLISH on the US-Dollar (and bearish on the Euro). [is old warning]

Dollar cycles 1 Dollar cycles 2
 USD - Secular Downtrend is INTACT  USD 15 year cycle
dollar cycles since 1973
Real dollar value Bearish
Bull trap!?
USDGold LT USD month USD month1
Halfway stop & 2nd down-leg  SELL- Aug 2015 The secular bear Trend resumed

In the USA, Hyperinflation sits around the corner, and right now the Food markets have a lot of work in marking up the prices each day! A weaker Dollar will only accelerate the process. The biggest enemy of the USA was and is manufactured by the Americans themselves. It is called the US-Dollar or Greenback. The day non-Americans stop trusting the Dollar, these will massively flow back to the USA, CRASH the exchange rate of the Dollar, and initiate Hyperinflation.

The U.S. issuing the global reserve currency by fiat knows full well it truly means "nonpayment".

The "Strong Dollar Policy" of the US Treasury is a policy of support of the dollar at key technical points so that the dollar will decline in an orderly fashion. This has been in place since the dollar was trading in the mid one hundred and twenty-five area on the USDX.

Our opinion:

In the medium term, hyperinflation is inevitable. The situation is very serious. Gold is the best (and only) hedge against both deflation and inflation. The better part of your financial assets should be in gold, augmented by well-thought-out shares. Not later than the end of 2017 the USA is about to enter an era of Hyperinflation,...give it some time and any Dollar dependent Economy will follow. The Credit rating for the USA has finally been taken down by Standard & Poor's and I have no doubt some insiders have made a big profit out of it. The results will not only be a crashing Dollar. The US Treasuries will follow in sequence. Confidence is lost...and such is extremely dangerous.

Most South American Fiat currencies are pegged to the Dollar. Even the Chinese Yuan is (de facto) still pegged to the Dollar. Most Western Banks hold important amounts of Dollars in their reserves...So try to imagine what the impact will be of a failing Dollar. Especially so for the EMERGING MARKETS. It is so bad most people don't even want to believe it actually can and will happen.

  • This is perverse. The current course guarantees the total destruction of the U.S. dollar. Again, I cannot emphasize enough how serious this is. People all around the world save in dollars. If the dollar is destroyed, it won't just be Americans who're hurt, it will be all the hard-working people around the world who've struggled to scrimp and save and put money away for future needs. All these people who were wise and frugal, are going to be wiped out. They are going to be left with absolutely nothing. This is criminal - it's the stuff revolutions are made of. And that's exactly what I expect we'll see plenty of, all around the globe.
  • Understanding WHY the Dollar went up in 2008 and is strong this 9/11 weekend helps us to understand why it came down and why it will continue to fall. Impressive is how similar today's scenario is with the Weimar crisis in Germany...the Dollar was going up for the wrong reasons!
  • Never forget there are a LOT more dollars floating around than Euro's and most Western central banks keep Dollars in their Forex reserves.

  • The Dollar Index (which is a 'de facto' barometer for the Dollar/Euro exchange rate) must break through the 1.00 level to confirm the Trend Reversal.
  • Growth driven by strong consumption and government spending leads to currency weakness – that is exactly what the US has been doing for years. For this reason, the Dollar will lose not less than 50 % of its present value against key major currencies. [ 2009 the British pound lost 30%]. But the Euro is not worth a cent more...
  • As the Dollar slides, more and more countries will settle for Crude Oil but also for other commodities in Euro, Yuan, and Yen...and even in Gold (Iran)  Since 1970 the Dollar has lost 80% of its value....and it ain't over yet! The Dollar will disappear,  the Euro will explode and I expect they could try to ram a SINGLE currency through our throats when it does...but History learns such is extremely difficult. Especially in Europe.

  • Capital will, as it flees Europe but also the USA, increasingly travel to SAFE HEAVENS  ( the Yen, the Sterling have severe problems - other Currency markets like Norway and Sweden are too small to absorb the large flow of capital). Today there are no real safe heavens left but Gold and Silver. Having said this, currencies like the Swiss,Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar are safer than the US-Dollar and the Euro. As a matter of fact, any currency which has no ties to the US-Dollar and/or Euro is a safer place to be.
  • Expect the ultimate disruption of the international monetary system because of the growing insolvency of the dollar resulting from the unending accumulation of foreign "dollar balances" that constitute foreign claims, and by the ensuing widespread inflation. The end game can start any time now and I expect a Grand Finale before 31 December 2017. If the Dollar was no reserve currency, it would have collapsed by long. Americans are excellent marketeers and so far the status of the dollar has been maintained with the help of the Army and Hollywood.
  • petrodollarThe Petrodollar is the misunderstood Achilles heel of the US-Dollar. As more and more world trade (OIL, NATURAL GAS) is invoiced and paid in NON-DOLLAR-CURRENCIES this increasingly undermines the Dollar...until the Greenback breaks through its support level. When this happens, HELL will break loose and NO CENTRAL BANK nor the FED will be unable to halt the crash of the DOLLAR.
  • The existence of “petrodollars” is one of the pillars of America’s economic might because it creates a significant external demand for American currency, allowing the US to accumulate enormous debts without defaulting. If a Japanese buyer wants to buy a barrel of Saudi oil, he has to pay in dollars even if no American oil company ever touches the said barrel. The dollar has held a dominant position in global trading for such a long time that even Gazprom’s natural gas contracts for Europe are priced and paid for in US dollars. Until recently, a significant part of the EU-China trade had been priced in dollars.
  • Whether the Dollar will strengthen or weaken against the Euro, the British Pound and other paper money systems is irrelevant as both are Worthless Paper Money which will disappear existing in their actual form over the next years. Because the Dollar is THE Reserve Currency the short-term exchange rate fluctuations between i.e. the Euro and the Dollar will be perverted and dangerous. The USA (debt) is in worse shape than Europe is in...and has been leveraged by DERIVATIVES. When the Roosters (Dollars abroad) come back home it will be a disaster...
  • The "Strong Dollar Policy" of the US Treasury is a policy of support of the dollar at key technical points so that the dollar will decline in an orderly fashion. This has been in place since the dollar was trading in the mid one hundred and twenty-five area on the USDX.
  • If you want to avoid inflation, high interest rates, and volatile commodity prices, the first step is to avoid wars.  (by 2020 the Defense expenditures will eat most of the US budget). The second step is to take the power of printing money (+34 % y/y) out of the government’s hands. The real bubble is the Dollar! What we see now is the end of the Fiat Currencies unfolding led by the Dollar. In September 2014 it becomes clear the USA is actually seeking War to postpone the final crash of the US-Dollar.

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AUGUST'18 (public)

“The winner takes it all, the loser standing small” (Abba song) is the next phase in the world economy.

Categories: Gold-$, Silver, US Dollar, News, Euro and €-Gold, Oil Shares, World Stock Market Indexes, The Gold pool

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