Updated April 1-16, 2019 - Gold is not an investment, it's money and an Insurance. The only currency without liability and counter party risk.
You either take physical delivery of your Gold and store it out of political reach in a VAULT or you stay in worthless Fiat paper.
The gold price is likely to explode as a result of the debt crisis, combined with the impact of the negative real interest rates ruling in many major economies...certainly after the manipulation Central Bankers, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan fails...the day is close it will and from that day on prices can double overnight!
Backwardation is a pricing phenomenon in the futures markets where the price of an asset now is higher relative to the price of that same asset in the future.
GLD is an ETF and should not be bought as an investment. CEF (Central Fund of Canada) and PHYS (Sprott) are better short term options.
|Apr 16: new GAP
||Apr 1: SCREAMING BUY
||Feb 4: bullish||Apr 16: buy the Diamond||Aug 28: Target calculation|
|What we have seen so far is only the hors d’oeuvres before the arrival of the main meal. The overt suppression of the Gold and Silver price has, for the informed investor a very limited shelf life. We know better: Precious metals offer one way out. However, the Government, the Fed and mainline media do all in their power to distort and discredit such investments. The alternate to the deflationary depression which is will be WORSE than what was seen in the 1930’s and is sold each time the price of Gold is correcting, is unlimited creation of paper and electronic money throughout the Western World. The recognition of this by all will propel both gold and silver to new and unseen highs over the next couple of years. The banking system leverage and the derivatives will ramp things up beyond imagination. Worst case scenario Gold and Silver could keep meddling for a couple of more weeks but trying to make some extra bucks by getting out NOW and trying to get back in a lower level can be extremely difficult and not worth the effort. (January 2012)|
March 2019, the BIS & Co's sold 2.2 mio + 5.5 mio = 7.7 mio Paper Gold: the impact on the price was marginal!
ABC correction was completed not December 18, 2011 but June 2013: How the heck did $-Gold know this was the BLUE SUPPORT LINE and bottom of the uptrend channel and reversed course exactly after bouncing into it!? Note the 'technical damage' widely discussed is ONLY visible on the $-Gold charts....Clear is that the bulk of analysts fail to understand the Dollar is playing dangerous games because of SWAPS and DERIVATIVES.
Gold cycles: Each bull run lasted for about 7 to 8 months and is followed by a 2 to 2 1/2 month correction. Previous correction lasted 4 months. The actual one started see long candle. Since 2006 the Volatility of Gold is increasing and this is visible on the MACD index. The actual correction is 30% points big....same size as in 2008 after the Lehman bankruptcy. The main difference is that the 2011 correction is taking more TIME. The end of the correction was marked by the coup on April 4, 2013...and the maturing Bottom formation (May 2014).
Note that over time the CONGESTION zones ( I, II, III, IV) are larger. Larger zones point to a higher vacuum and to higher TARGETS for the price of Gold. Technically speaking, the LARGER congestion zone, the higher TARGET.
This is a disconnect and a huge opportunity. Gold shares normally lead Gold during upswings...like it tries to now...unsuccessfully...click here for more
our Gold-Silver ratio tells us when to buy/Sell gold & silver
Fibonacci levels and cycles: Fibonacci levels are key resistance and support levels. These levels exist and can be seen all over the nature.
These are the cycles for $-Gold: Active cycle is Major THREE up to $ 3500
- Major ONE up from $ 256 to $ 1015
- Major TWO down from $ 1015 to $ 700
- Major THREE up from $ 700 to $ 3500
- Major FOUR down from $ 3500 to $ 2500
- Major FIVE up from $ 2500 to $ 10,000/30,000
Gold congestion zones and subsequent bull runs: “Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse. (W. Gann)”
Previous congestion zones lasted up to TWO YEARS...[click to enlarge] The larger congestion zone, the more and the longer manipulation, the higher Target!
- leg 1 from $ 430 to $ 720 (September 06 to May 07) + 67% - done
- leg 2 from $ 700 to $ 1,000 (September 07 to April 08) +43% - done
- leg 3 from $ 950 to $ 1,300 (September 09 to October 2010) +30% - done
- leg 4 from $ 1300 to $ 1920 (October 2010 to August 2011) +46% - done
- leg 5 from $ 1180 to $ 3500? (August 2016 to >>>>>>>>>???)
2011- 2014 - 2015 -2016 Gold shake out:
Dead and Golden crosses on the Moving Averages: the 64 week Moving Average is an important support and resistance level.
Check the Elliott Wave chart to the right with a bullish objective of $ 31,600.
|Accumulation||Constellations||Fix since 1970||Elliott Wave chart|
|2019||bullish||fix since 1970||march 2011|
We 'never' experienced a weak price of Gold during a cycle of 'real negative interest rates' ! Remember that the price of Gold is not driven by a weak dollar and that we have and may see again Gold and the Dollar rise in tandem. Central bankers do not like gold because it is a monetary metal and they manage Fiat (paper money) currencies. Therefore when gold rises strongly or persistently against a currency , it is signaling that CBs are printing too much of it. The theory of Keynes that the Great Depression was due to the contraction in money supply because of the Gold Standard is incorrect. The opposite is true. Few know Keynes was in fact a Government employee...Like John Law was an employee of the French court...
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