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Gold & Silver Majors

Updated Dec 9, 2018 -  DISTINCT BOTTOM FORMATION & beginning of the biggest Uptrend of the 21st century.

HUI-Gold ratio
HUI-index monthly
compare today's bottom to the 2008 bottom...
HUI monthisland reversal, huge bullish wedge...no cigar yet
majors perfo

Majors performance - tellers reset to 0% on Nov 10, 2014    
click to enlarge

HUI special ratio with targets
HUI pf3

The sector is clearly showing the negative mood for Gold and Silver and stocks have been moving down in a leveraged way compared to Gold and Silver.The quality mining shares are dramatically undervalued. The value is so exceptional, so, I think it will have a slingshot effect when gold and silver recover and investors get some confidence. The upside impact on the price of the shares will be something to behold. Expect at least a 300% increase of the HUI-index.

The current correction in gold stocks is the fourth longest since 1879. The decline of 66% ranks in the top 10 of recorded history. Personally, I think the price level of these shares are an ABERRATION...August 2015 - January 2016

  1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
  2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an excess in the opposite direction. (Gold & Silver sector)
  3. There are no new eras - excesses are never permanent.
  4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think but they do not correct by going sideways.
  5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
  6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.

On fundamental values, gold silver shares trade at historic low valuations as in 2008 when you were able to buy companies:

      • - for less than the cash in the bank
      • - for less than $10 per ounce of gold in the ground
      • - for less than 1,000 times annual gold production
      • - for a dividend yield of 2.5% or more

Lower your costs and enlarge your positions during corrections (NOW), in the entire Gold sector. The long term uptrend has been confirmed and we expect a bull run to last for more months. Expect shares to suffer somewhat during Stock Market Bear Runs! For next month we expect better than expected results with increased dividends and higher earnings. The Hedge funds had their way with the gold shares, but logically this is coming to an end. When you can buy companies whose resources are three times the company’s present capitalization, the share is getting unreasonably cheap. It is very well plausible that Hedge fund managers use any negative news in the sector to play their little shorting game.

We prefer the Juniors to ETF's, to Futures, Options and Turbo's . The additional advantage Juniors have, is that they will be taken over by the Seniors as their own gold-ore-reserves decrease. NEVER forget that by holding DERIVATIVES you are using UNCONTROLLED and UNREGULATED investment instruments (which are mostly manipulated)

Price will go up when time is up - and time is up (Oct 6, 2017) HUI - Gold and Silver bugs index
gold mine Bullish Objective 480 - 910 - 1600
Resistance 480
Support 180
Bearish Target 120
Technical Pattern BOTTOM + Super Bullish

 

[Most Recent HUI from www.kitco.com]

Price will go up when time is up !...and time is up (January 2018)

  • Gold and Silver shares have been impacted by large short positions held in almost all. Shorters hope of scaring long term and weak holders out of their positions. Shorters however MUST cover their positions....

  • Math's today and Magic tomorrow.

  • A Goldmine is literally priced lower than top-quality DIRT, COMPOST, and MULCH. Goldmines suffered because of the negative expectations of Gold and probably ALSO because of manipulation. (June 2013)

BPGDM candle

Our Opinion: BUY and be patient!

  • Each correction is a low risk entry point. Last time the HUI and Gold mines were in this similar constellation, they went up by 150% in only 6 month's time. Just the beginning: Looking at the charts of the individual mines, it occurs to me that Gold will continue its bull run for some time now. At this time (Nov4) the Bull run has barely started.

  • At present, gold mining stocks are under valued relative to gold bullion, so those seeking extra leverage should consider investing in dominant gold producers. Finally, in our view, the high cost South-African gold producers which do not hedge their production offer the maximum leverage to gold. And at current prices, these companies are being given away.

 The biggest profits will be generated by Majors and Juniors which have been incorrectly sold "en masse" by the stupid Herd (incl. Hedge funds)

HUI pf1

Short term candle Chart Comment
HUI candle1

This correction has been fully orchestrated by the Central Bankers and US-Authorities. When the market will try to normalize itself, a Bank Holiday may be expected!

  • August 7, 2015: Blood runs through the streets...
  • Nov 23 - Dec 29: multiple bottom formation
  • Feb 6, 2016: Index breaks RESISTANCE LEVEL = bullish indication for Gold = Buy.
  • Oct 10: Note we have a short term HALFWAY STOP of the HUI-index .
  • Jan 11 - Feb 9, 2017: fresh upleg
  • July 7 - August 30 = SCREAMING BUY!
  • Jan 14, 2018: expect a Bull run...very soon.
  • Feb 16: Trading Range is 180 to 220 [ buy @ 180 ]
  • May 6-26: aborted LIFTOFF...sideward consolidation: the bigger the zone, the bigger the rise...
  • June 6: note the SQUEEZED bollinger bands pointing to ACTION.
  • July 23 - Sep 18: maturing BOTTOM formation with imminent breakup.
  • Oct 17 - Nov 13: HUI-INDEX broken through its 50 day Moving Average.
  • Dec 9: SCREAMING BUY!
Long term candle
HUI candle2

 

 According to our DELTA analysis we will see a LOW "between today and Mid-December" and much higher by August 2019.
The only time I remember to have lived this kind of market action was in October 1987...it ended up to be THE BUY opportunity for common stocks for the next 35 years.!..Charts & yields (yields updated Dec 2018) . Click on the heading for the Company's profile.

Yamana (AUY)** 0.02 oz gold/share 0.93% yield-2.8* Newmont (NEM)** 1.18 oz gold/share 0.30% yield-1.73*
Barrick (ABX)***0.10 oz gold/share 0.92% yield-2.4*
Detour Gold(DGC.TO)  yield na - 2.1* Gold Corp (GG)** 0.04 oz gold/share 0.85% yield-2.5*
AUY pf1 NEM pf1 ABX pf1 DGCto GG pf1
BUY (Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico, and Canada)
(USA Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Suriname -15.600) = BUY
BUY (USA, Canada, Austr, Argent, Chile, Peru, Dom. Rep, Papua Nw Guinea, Tanzania, Zambia & Saudi) Target $30 - probably the best miner one can buy (Canada-797) High BUY volume (Canada, USA, Mexico, and Central and South America-mix)
       
ASA (ASA)* - na yield Randgold***(Gold) 3.63% yield-1.8* Gold Resource Corp (GORO)+ 0.53% yield-2.0* Alamos (AGI) 0.62% yield - 2.2* Kinross (KGC)**
0.04 oz/share - Bullish-Buy-2.4*
ASA pf1 GOLD pf1 GORO pf1 AGI pf1 KGC pf1
BUY (mutual fund of miners) BUY (sub-sahara-3,714)  - broken through 50 day MA
BUY (Mexico-12)   broken through 50 day MA
(Canada, USA, Mexico, Turkey 1300) - buy - broken through 50 day MA
PF-BUY(Can, USA, Russia, Brazil, Chile, Ghana, and Mauritania-9,000)
         
Agnico Eagle ***(AEM) 1.25% yield-2.4* Centerra(GC.TO)** 2.09% yield-breakout Hecla (HL)* 0.39% yield - 2.9*
Premier Gold (PG.TO)***-2*
Pan Am. (PAAS)** 1.08% yield-2.5*
AEM pf1 CGto pf1 HL pf1 PAAS pf1
prod.cost $535 (Canada, Finland, Mex-5,000-mix) - broken 50 day MA
(Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Turkey, and Canada-2,400)
Silver -(worldwide-1,400)  broken 50 day MA
Buy (holds 50% of TRP.TO - 18)
Silver - (Peru, Mex, Argent., Bolivia+mix-4,100)  broken 50 day MA
       
Coeur d'Alene* (CDE)-2.3*  Kirkland lake Gold**(KL.TO) Endeavour Mining*(EDV.TO)   MAG Silver****(MAG.TO)  
CDE pf1 KGIto_pf1.png  EDVto_pf1.png   MAGto_pf1.png  
Ag - ( worldwide-2,000) broken 50 day MA
 Breakout - BUY (Canada) - - broken 50 day MA  BUY (W. Africa-2,400) - broken 50 day MA  BUY NOW (Mexico - mixed-9)  
         
Anglo Gold (AU) 0.61% yield-2.3* DRD-Gold
1.76 oz/share - 7.75% yield - 3*
 
Gold Fields (GFI) 0.36 oz/share 1.92% yield-  Harmony (HMY)-3.65% yield-3.3*  Sibanye Gold(SBGL) Gold & Platinum-7.38% yield-2.5*
AU pf1 DRD pf1 GFI pf1 SBGL pf1
BUY(RSA, Africa, Australasia, Americas-52,000-mix)  - broken 50 & 200 day MA   Backtest on PF-BUY (RSA-Joburg) - broken 50 day MA
BUY (RSA, Ghana, Australia, and Peru-9,000)  - broken 50 day MA
RSA, Papua New Guinea:Cu, Ag, UR, and molybdenum - broken 50 & 200 day MA
4.05% yield (RSA, Kloof, Driefontein, ...40,000) BULLISH WEDGE=BUY - broken 50 & 200 day MA 
Note: These are South-African miners...try to exchange these over time for NON-SA-Miners

cheap goldminers 2015-12-15

notes:

marges goudmijnenDividends of Gold and Silver miners are growing exponentially. (see fundamentals) Focus on Gold mines as I expect these to perform better than Silver mines. PF charts are NOT adjusted for dividends. Gold and Silver miners survived for 20 years when Gold was traded around $ 250/oz...so why would they not when Gold trades around $ 1300 !?

  • BUY by preference those shares which sit in the bottom/lower part of their trend channel or have broken out and positively tested the breakout price.

  • A general pattern of Leg 1 - 2008 deleveraging or halfway stop - and Leg 2 becomes more and more visible. Normally after Leg 2 we have a Buying climax....but we ain't there yet!

  • Positive bullish signals are: price sits on 200 day MA, Bullish divergence, Bullish wedge, Bullish flag, Bullish coil, Bullish cup and handle, oversold daily, weekly and monthly technical indicators,...LOW POLE REVERSALS and BREAKOUT of BULLISH WEDGES.

  • Kinross (KGC) is a decent senior gold mining company, but after taking a $2.49-billion writedown in February for the Tasiast mine, it has been nothing but a prime example of an overreaction, and a potential buying opportunity.

  • Pan American Silver - PAAS:  almost debt free/reduced exploitation costs – co’ to become one of the big three silver co’s as silver producion will double by 2015. Geoff Burns, Pan American's President and CEO, said: "We are extremely pleased to have concluded the acquisition of Minefinders. This strategic transaction increases our near-term silver and gold production and cash flow, and meaningfully reduces our average cash costs across our eight producing mines, while at the same time geographically de-risking our overall portfolio.  In addition, Pan American should reap the benefits of a sector leading and well sequenced growth profile.
  • Especially RandGold Resources is a steal. The company’s Tongon mine is their newest project and is currently being commissioned, but news flow has been slow and hasn’t drawn much attention. Look to see this issue resolved over the next couple of months. 
  • Banro (BAA) is one to buy and hold for the next couple of years.
  • Silvercorp is one of the few companies that has successfully navigated in China, and our models indicate there is much more upside available from these assets than where the stock is currently priced. SVM also has a very attractive relative valuation to its North American peers, where in some cases we have seen 5% of their market capitalization turn over fairly consistently everyday over the last month – those shareholders are obviously not around for the long term. [chart in the section of Gold and Silver juniors].
  • SA Goldmines suffer because of the discussion about the nationalization threath of the SA Gold mines (ANC leader Malena was using it in his election campaign - Elections are in dec 2012 - Malena has been kind of liquidated). The De Beers family sold some of its interests in SA mining co's to Anglo American but moved its HQ to Gaborone (Botswana). DE BEERS moved it's HQ from London (UK) to Gaborone. [GDP of Botswana is steadely growing ≈ 8%]
  • The run on the Bank of the Gold Cartel is unfolding. Much more gold and silver has been sold than can be delivered. The implications for the gold & silver price are mind boggling.

  • Leverage to Gold: Kinross 3,5:1 , Randgold: 4,9:1 , Royal Gold: 4,8:1 , RandGold: 1:1

  • Each outstanding common share of Osisko will be exchanged for C$2.09 in cash, 0.07264 of a common share of Agnico Eagle, 0.26471 of a common share of Yamana, and one common share (one tenth of a common share on a consolidated basis) of a newly formed company that will acquire certain assets of Osisko as part of the Arrangement ("Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd").
  • TORONTO, July 2, 2015 - Alamos Gold Inc. (TSX/NYSE: AGI) and AuRico Metals Inc. (TSX:AMI) are pleased to announce the completion of the previously announced arrangement.Each former Alamos share held was ultimately exchanged for 1 Class A common share of Alamos ("Class A Shares"), US$0.0001 in cash, and 0.4397 AuRico Metals Shares, and each Former AuRico share held was ultimately exchanged for 0.5046 Class A Shares and 0.2219 AuRico Metals Shares. Upon closing, Alamos has approximately 255,505,000 Class A Shares outstanding with Former Alamos and Former AuRico shareholders each owning approximately 50% and AuRico Metals has approximately 118,120,000 shares outstanding with Former Alamos and Former AuRico shareholders each owning approximately 50% of the shares not held by Alamos.

    It is anticipated that Alamos will commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") and New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") under the symbol "AGI" and AuRico Metals will commence trading on the TSX under the symbol "AMI" on July 6, 2015.  Former Alamos and Former AuRico shares will be delisted from the TSX and NYSE that same day.



Table with low risk step in levels and potential objectives: (Eldorado Gold is also listed under Gold & Silver juniors) When selecting a stock preference is given to those where price sits on 200 day Moving Average, and/or price sits on the bottom of uptrend channel (blue line) note: Table and Objectives have been updated - Objectives are short/medium term - use trailing stops once the target has been reached !

****


Updated January 18, 2012 - Durban Roodepoort Deep (Drooy) - a buy at these levels (DRD Gold)

We initially advised to buy this stock at 75 cents...The potential objective is +1,015%...cheap again!. Durban Roodepoort runs the deepest Goldmines in the World...but lately its behavior is rather sloppy! Having said this the stock is still cheap and although South Africa is managed differently since Mandela took over, the MAIN source of income is Mining AND all black business people have after all been trained by the white Anglo Saxons.

With mining assets in South Africa, the company runs operations from exploration through to smelting. Shares are trading at $4.23 at the time of writing, toward the bottom end of their 52-week trading range of $3.96 to $6.23. At the current market price, the company is capitalized at $162.80 million. Earnings per share for the last fiscal year were $1.21, placing the shares on a price to earnings ratio of 3.49. It paid a dividend of $0.06 last year (a yield of 1.40%) which was covered over 20 times by its earnings. It has the lowest price-to-earnings ratio of the gold mining stocks.

This video clip is about Kinross mining in Mauritania:


November 2008 - Gold shares see biggest jump in years. This is how fast Gold and Silver shares can go up....

Returns on Gold mines are swift and often not expected...a BULL RUN we have!

BigGoldmovers

Gold mines suffer somewhat because trading business is redirected towards Gold and Silver ETF's.

Copyright, All Rights Reserved - The contents of this report may NOT be copied, reproduced, or distributed without the explicit written consent of Goldonomic.


 

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