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Euro and €-Gold

July 17, 2024:   Bull Run and Historic Record...Target € 2,230 has been hit!

European Authorities can now LEGALLY steal bank deposits and block the withdrawal of smaller amounts. Because of the Bail-In legislation, any depositor has become a creditor! Hence, the € 100,000 guarantee/insurance is a worthless JOKE.
The US dollar momentarily plays the role of the Gold Standard. For European countries to grow again, they MUST leave the Euro and Euro-zone.
The maximum amount of Gold one can buy/sell anonymously in Europe (EU) has been lowered to €3,000 (Germany) and €500 (Belgium).
If you don't store your Physical Gold out of political reach, they will seize it from you!

€-Gold with Targets.
  • Germany is repatriating its national gold, and I expect other EU countries to follow (The Netherlands and Switzerland). This action meaningfully changes the end scenario for the dollar and the euro. Europeans are adding real money to their monetary system, which could now be able to survive (under certain circumstances)  if hyperinflation occurs in the USA. That said, neither the US dollar nor the Euro is a safe currency.
  • Gold, however, is still number one, and Silver number two! Hence, one must use Fiat currencies to store short-term cash only AND hold Gold as security/real money.
  • The remarkable PF chart for €-Gold shows a BULLISH WEDGE, and the Long Term Moving Average supports the price on the monthly Euro-Gold chart (to the left).
  • Chart to the left = Special ratio PF chart for Gold with BREAKOUT and at historical top.  It also shows the targets as of January 2024.

€ - Gold All-time high
€ - Gold-month
Bullish Target € 2800
Resistance n.a.
Support € 2080
Bearish Objective € 1720
Technical pattern Bull Run

"We started to advise to buy Gold in 2001/2002"

Short term candle Chart comment: It is important to ensure your gold is stored out of political reach.
  • Jan 4, 2016: BREAKOUT on the short candle
  • Feb 1, 2017: Short candle points to HIGHER Euro-Gold
  • Nov 22 - Feb 12, 2018: Gold has no way to go but UP !!!
  • Jan 3 - Feb 5/19, 2019: also a breakout on PF-chart.
  • Jan 4- Mar 6, 2020: Fresh bull run
  • March 24 - April 9: Bull run and new historic Top.
  • Dec 18 - Feb 5, 2021: points to HIGHER Gold soon.
  • Oct 1: TWO uplegs divided by a HALFWAY FLAG. (super BUY)
  • Jan. 14 - Feb. 8, 2022: And higher we go!
  • Jan. 3, 2023: Still a STONG BUY...and beginning fresh upleg.
  • Mar. 24: Breakout, All Time High, and Backtest.
  • Apr. 21 - June 18: Are we about to see a Triple-Top breakout?!
  • Sep. 23 - 26: expect Higher!
  • Oct. 4: See the €1950 target of the maturing Cup and Handle.
  • Nov. 4 - Dec. 11 - Mar. 10 - Apr. 13, 2024: Up to a fresh all-time high!
  • Apr. 13: Target HIT - see the short candle
  • Apr. 23: Correction and Apr. 30: end of correction.
  • May 12: the beginning of a fresh upleg.
  • June 17 - July 17: it looks like we shall resume the bull run now. If so, expect an acceleration of the trend.
Long term candle
eGold candle2

The Euro-Dollar: The secular trend of the Euro is up, and the Dollar is down.

€uro-Dollar-Index: Since 2019, Germany has controlled the ECB and the EURO!

Bullish Objectives €/$ 1.22
XEU 1.18- 1.22 Euro-Index
Short-term Bullish - Long-Term ???.
Resistance €/$ 1.12
XEU 1.12
Support €/$ 1.06-1.08
XEU 1.06
Bearish Objective €/$ 0.98 XEU 0.98
Technical Pattern
Euro vs. Dollar: Bullish Reversal of the Euro
Euro-index: Bullish Reversal of the Euro.

Note the Bullish Low-Pole Reversal in November 2022!

XEU candle2 XEU month
Short Candle - expect a stronger €?
Long Candle: Sideward inside trend channel.
Monthly - Sideward inside trend channel.
The public doesn't seem to realize that today, the dollar is in much worse shape than in 2017 and that one of these Lagarde will raise the Euro interest rate. (May 13, 2022)  
Short Term Candle Chart comment
XEU candle1
  • Jan 4, 2016: Support ($ 1.08) is holding well...
  • Jan 26, 2017: - Candles point to a HIGHER Euro
  • Jan 4, 2018: Running into minor resistance
  • Jan 3 - Feb 5, 2019: 1.12 is a significant support level.
  • Dec 30 - Feb 4, 2020: the Euro seems to be BREAKING UP
  • Dec 3 - Mar 3, 2021: indeed - breaking out.
  • Jan. 14 - Feb. 8, 2022: New Bull Run for the Euro.
  • June 18: 1st upleg of the Euro vs. the Dollar was sparked by the interest rate hike of the ECB to 4%. Also, note that the BEAR TRAP on the PF chart has now been confirmed.
  • Aug. 28: Key reversal on candle charts or Bullish reversal.
  • Oct. 4: we expect no trend reversal but more sideward action. In the short term, the Euro is BULLISH versus the Dollar.
  • Nov. 4 - Dec. 11 - Mar. 10, 2024: Strong trend Reversal favoring the Euro.
  • Apr. 13: ??? - Lagarde points and lies to lower interest rates while Powell does the opposite...and the HERD acts!
  • Apr 23 - May 12: bottoming...and oversold.
  • June 17 - July 17: Sideward inside trend channel (note the huge reversal formation building up)
Long Term Candle
XEU candle2
The real value of the Euro
Lt chart with bullish divergence - resistance level is $ 1.12
Silver and the Euro:  The target for Silver is €34 or +100%
XEUGOLD month XEU month LT Euro and silver oct10
  1. The Euro is not like the dollar in the least. Each country retained its identity but abandoned its currency without realizing they were surrendering economic sovereignty. Capital is bought by German debt in the Euro, forcing the Euro higher while making repayment for the weaker countries (FPIIGS) even worse. Instead of lessening the debt, it is appreciated when the EU economy is declining. In other words, it is a story with a bad ending.
  2. The demise of the euro and the return of national currencies will allow for the proper allocation of investments and resources. It is the best thing that could happen to the markets. 
  3. The Euro-Dollar exchange rate is like the Devil dancing in holy water. During this process, a crashing Euro can overcome a lower gold price. This is a normal phenomenon during a DELEVERAGING process.
    The single currency functions so brilliantly that its vulnerable members (Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Spain) are sliding toward bankruptcy. There is no way the Euro and the EU (a complex society) will survive expensive energy!
  4. The ECB and IMF have BROKEN the back of the Euro Camel...You have to be out of your mind to stay invested in euros after what happened in Cyprus and what is happening in Greece. Remarkable is that the Euro remains so strong versus the US-Dollar...or does this happen because the US-Dollar is in more trouble than the Euro!?
  5. The European Central Bank put a floor under the eurozone by agreeing last month to buy unlimited quantities of bonds of any troubled member state that accepts the conditions of a bailout program. ECB President Mario Draghi made clear the bank will use all its tools to defeat anyone betting on a break-up of the monetary union.
  6. Remember, this is a CURRENCY WAR...and a synthetic Dollar Shortage (see Dollar Fundamentals), which an actual war could follow. The Cyprus holdup was a test case, and a similar happening can be seen in Europe (Greece?!) any day now... Also, one may NOT forget that the Middle East War and the inflow of refugees in Europe are part of the BIG picture.
  7. The ECB doesn't have the flexibility the Federal Reserve (FED) has. However, to bail out Greece, Portugal, Italy, the EU, and its Banks, they use exponential amounts of Fiat Money armed with derivatives and Credit Default Swaps. Those guys have lost any common sense. SWAPS and derivatives work quickly, making the Global Financial System even more explosive.
  8. Europe and the Euro are BANKRUPT, and now it's just guessing when the final act (the Black Swan) will land. DO NOT DELAY action... and be advised the authorities will take all they can on their path to death. Having said this, the Media/Press has never forecasted a Major Crash. On the contrary, they are excellent contrary indicators! Before the END GAME breaks lose, expect to see the Authorities do ANYTHING to let the Euro (and Greece, Portugal...) survive. The fact that Germany, Poland, and soon Switzerland are repatriating their national Gold holdings may indicate that we may see severe problems with the US dollar first. Very hard to write a scenario. As things look now (June 2015), the Euro may encounter problems first. The endgame, however, has still not been played yet...everything is possible!
  9. Why would one hold Fiat dollars and/or Euro? The Nominal Yield is almost zero and lower than the official inflation rate, and the Stock Market is collapsing….Real Estate is collapsing…The Banking system is in trouble...The bulk of derivatives is labeled in dollars. Imagine what would happen if the Chinese stopped buying dollars, which is exactly what they are doing. Check our investment table for the Fiat currencies we think are far better...more.
  10. The Euro is just like the Dollar FIAT PAPER MONEY worth ZERO. However, it takes time before the Herd stops believing the propaganda and statistics from the talking heads and authorities and becomes aware of this vast Ponzi scheme [Madoff was jailed for what they were doing]. Remember, Fiat paper money is not only paper but also DEBT. By holding on to it, you hold on to somebody else's DEBT...The Euro is a complex fiat currency resulting from a complex society (the EU) controlled by the ECB. According to Tainter, it will not survive the rising cost of energy. The Canadian and Australian dollars are stronger than the Fiat currencies (compared to the US dollar). Knowing that A LOT MORE DOLLARS can be sold (because there are more dollars in circulation) than euros is essential.

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