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  • The majority is never right. Never, I tell you! That’s one of these lies in society that no free and intelligent man can ever help rebelling against. Who are the people that make up the biggest proportion of the population — the intelligent ones or the fools? I think we can agree it’s the fools, no matter where you go in this world, it’s the fools that form the overwhelming majority - Henrik Ibsen.

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World Stock Market Indexes

stocks 5 yearNov 20-22, 2018 : Dow Jones, SP500 and Transportation Index are expensive = maturing TOP FORMATION ?!

As of today (March 2018) the US-Stock market Indexes have one last UPLEG to go. This should take the Dow Jones Industrials to 32,000 and maybe higher.  Bearing in mind that the US-Dollar is resuming it's downtrend, the risk is not worth the potential reward and I think one should from now on refrain from investing in Typical American Shares. [Be advised there is a difference between shares QUOTED/TRADED in U.S. Dollar and American shares which have their HQ in the USA and operate 100% in the USA.]

The FED and ECB, the Bank of Japan not only print money...they also BUY shares. Stock markets will continue to go up as long as MONEY can be PRINTED and the additional marginal amount of freshly printed money has buying power left...When the money supply is growing faster than nominal GDP, then excess liquidity tends to flow to financial assets. However, if the money supply is growing more slowly than nominal GDP, then the real economy absorbs more available liquidity. That’s one reason why stocks go up so much when the economy is weak but the money supply is rising. [click to enlarge picture to the left]

Never forget that Stock Markets climb a Wall of worry and slide off a climax of enthousiasm...
It makes no sense to buy-hold US-stocks once the US-Dollar resumes its Bear Trend!


Dow Jones industrials:  Stocks are SAFER than Bonds and LONG TERM I see a Dow Jones of 30,000 and higher...!

Dow Target & Support Central Banks are buying shares... SP500 Target & Support
INDU targetjan18 Bullish Objective 28,800  SPX targetjan18
Resistance
Hard Support - Stop
23,500
Bearish Objective - 25% = 21,800
Technical pattern Maturing TOP!?


The Dow to geyser to  30,000 and higher...but maybe not worth it as the Dollar resumes it downtrend.

INDU pf1

Short term candle
Chart comment
INDU candle1
  • Feb 1 - Mar 12, 2016: short term bullish
  • June 20 : Summer Rally will break the resistance level of 18,200
  • July 14 - 19 - August 22 : Resistance level BROKEN = BULLISH
  • Nov 13: Breakout and HISTORIC ALL TIME HIGH- mind the SUPPORT level (previous Resistance level)
  • Jan 8, 2017: is the Correction due January 20 ?
  • Jan 25 - Feb 8: fresh breakout and target is 20,800
  • Oct 12: mind the calculated target of the PF chart which is 28,400 or about 25% higher than today's level.
  • Jan 9, 2018: Buy Climax?= DANGER...see TARGET on PF chart...DON'T FORGET your Trailing-STOPS.
  • Feb 3: the beginning of the expected correction...and see how CORRECT our Target calculation was.
  • Feb 6-10: note the HARD STOP LOSS line on the PF-charts and Short Candles
  • Mar 10: New formation in the make...
  • July 16: SIDEWARD trend: Accumulation of Distribution?
  • July 25 - Aug 10: an Accumulation it was and a BREAKOUT we have = beginning of last upleg #5.
  • Sep 13: worst case scenario we have a M-top formation.
  • Oct 15 - Oct 26: Technically speaking this is still a BULL trend. Support of 200 day Moving Average.
  • Oct 30 - Nov 11 - Nov 20: look out below.
Long term candle

INDU candle2


S&P 500 Large Cap Index: critical STOP LOSS levels are 2040 & 1980 -

Bullish Objective 3,260
Resistance
HARD Support - Stop
2,600
Bearish Objective -25% = 1,800
Technical pattern CAUTION- end of LEG #5    ALL TIME HIGH !

SPX candle3

SPX pf1

Short term Candle
Chart comment

SPX candle1

WELCOME in ZIMBABWE - stocks are REAL ASSETS

  • Feb 1 - 12, 2016: Short term bullish
  • July 14 - August 22: BREAKOUT !
  • Jan 8, 2017: is the Correction due January 20 ?
  • Jan 25 - Feb 8: fresh breakout and target is 2,800
  • August 11: correction starts EXACTLY at level where it says SELL op our PF chart.
  • Jan 9, 2018: Buy Climax?= DANGER...see TARGET on PF chart...DON'T FORGET your Trailing-STOPS.
  • Feb 3: the beginning of the expected correction...and see how CORRECT our Target calculation was.
  • Feb 6-10: note the HARD STOP LOSS line on the PF-charts and Short Candles
  • Mar 10: New formation in the make...
  • Apr 7 - Apr 24 - May 4: CRITICAL..BUT BEARISH IT IS.
  • May 6 - July 16: Buy signal on short candle. The S&P 500 had a modest upside breakout in mid-May. A small correction is now in order. Any further advance above short-term resistance at 2,750 will bring the mid-March recovery peak at 2,802 into sight. Exceeding that level should then stimulate a run towards a new all-time high. 
  • July 25 - Aug 10: an Accumulation it was and a BREAKOUT we have = beginning of last upleg #5.
  • Sep 13: ALL TIME HIGH.
  • Oct 15 - 26: Support of 200 day Moving Average....technically still a BULL. CAUTION is required.
  • Oct 30 - Nov 11 - Nov 20: look out below
Long term Candle
SPX candle2


Dow Jones Transportation index -
CAUTION -


Dow Jones Transportation Index  
Bullish Objective 12,600
Resistance  10,800
Hard Support - Stop
7,800
Bearish Objective
Technical pattern CAUTION: leg # 5 ALL TIME HIGH

-

TRAN pf1

Short candle Chart comment
TRAN candle1
  • Feb 1 - 2016: short term bullish
  • Mar 12 - Sep 12: long term Bullish
  • Oct 8 - Nov 4: running into short term RESISTANCE
  • Jan 8, 2017: Resistance of the All Time High.
  • Jan 25 - Feb 8: fresh bull run...target 10,200
  • March 19: Bearish FLAG...but Support level will probably hold and we shall see higher levels.
  • Aug 11: correction starts EXACTLY at level where it says SELL op our PF chart.
  • Jan 9, 2018: Buy Climax?= DANGER...see TARGET on PF chart...DON'T FORGET your Trailing-STOPS.
  • Feb 3: the beginning of the expected correction...
  • Feb 6 -10: 9,200 is SUPPORT
  • Mar 10: New formation in the make...
  • May 6 - June 4: Buy signal on short candle
  • July 25 - Aug 10: an Accumulation it was and a BREAKOUT we have = beginning of last upleg #5. Target is 12,600
  • Sep 13: ALL TIME HIGH.
  • Oct 15 - Oct 26: Technically still an uptrend...however EXTREME CAUTION is required as 200 day Moving Average has been broken. SUPPORT is 7,800!
  • Oct 30 - Nov 11 - Nov 20: Support is broken - look out below
Long candle
TRAN candle2

 

CENTRAL BANKS BUY SHARES...and they just have to print more money to buy more shares!

Do not sell winning positions but use TRAILING STOPS and re-invest in the same shares during the correction .

Important is to understand that the bullish action indicates we have a HYPERINFLATION situation on hand and if confirmed, stock markets will rise A LOT MORE. This will become clear once the Stock markets indexes break lose from the actual resistance levels and we have  positive backtests.

Stay away from RED FLAGGED markets - some will continue to bottom; for others we shall see a break- down each time the local Bond market crashes!!! Get out of the European stock markets in distress: Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain, France,...but remember at all times that HYPERINFLATION and communicating financial vessels can reverse the trend of ALL stock markets overnight.

Some stock markets are a NO-GO because of the currency risk. Ex. Japan,..
  • WHITE flagged markets are in a technical short term BEARISH mode which can last for months - BACKTEST expected....
  • RED flagged markets are in a SELL mode... RED - 0 - on the PF  Candle charts show middle term bearish target .
  • GREEN flagged markets are still in a Bullish mode and/or have completed their backtest and/or broken out and resumed their uptrend.
UK FTSE Swiss SMI German DAX SA-Dow Canada Dow
FTSE pf1 SMI pf1 DAX pf1 ZADOW pf1 CADOW pf1
Breakout STALLS - don't buy
Buy the correction
Buy the correction
Overbought - don't buy: currency risk! Buy the correction- LT resistance is now support
         
Shanghai index Japan
Spanish IBEX Austrian ATX Belgium Dow
SSEC pf1 NIKK pf1 IBEX pf1 ATX pf1 BEDOW pf1
STOP LOSS & SELL
Overbought - don't buy: +currency risk!
Lower tops = SELL
breakout=BUY
fallen out of TOP = SELL
     
World Index
Australia Portugal Dow French CAC Dutch AEX
DJW pf1 AORD pf1 PTDOW pf1 CAC pf1 AEX pf1
Uptrend intact - Overbought = Sell Uptrend intact  Overbought = Sell Stay away - new low
 Overbought = Sell
Uptrend intact - Overbought = Sell
     
Russia Brazil Greece   
RTX pf1   EWZ pf1  ATG pf1  
Breakout aborted + weak Ruble
Stay away Stay away  

The Footsie (British stock market index) is my Canary in the Mine shaft for the Dow Jones... and the index could be going for a winning run: breaking through the triple Top (with no mainstream attention).  We now only have to wait until the breakout levels are positively tested. Once they are, I am sure the Dow Jones and stock markets in general will resume their climb of the Wall of Worry. If such does not happen, we may retest the 2008 low. See long term charts for more and important resistance levels  

Belgium is a tertiary dangerous temporary safe heaven for capital. It will remain so until Wealth and Capital gain taxes are enforced. This has become reality in 2017. High time to move your marbles...

Once capital controls are enforced, the stock market will behave in a similar pattern as the SA-Dow.
The Footsie is a secondary escape route for capital leaving the European continent. Remember that London is a Tax Heaven and the city will continue to attract capital. Especially so if the Brits decide to go for the Great Escape (BREXIT).  The least we can expect is sidewards bullish action until Hyperinflation breaks out and the index soars to the upside....The same rule applies here as for the Dow Jones and the Nikkei: it's doesn't make sense to buy/hold shares when the currency comes down!

FOOTSIE

Stockcharts has discontinued the charts for the FOOTSIE...see our PF-chart

  • Remember that so as the FOOTSIE goes, so goes the Dow Jones.
  • Mar 10, 2018: Important is that the 6,800 level holds and the Foorsie bounces up after hitting it.

-

 BULLISH potential is 50% to 500% - use Trailing Stops and BUY during Corrections and Panic Situations !

Summer 2017 we had a new all-time highs in the S&P 500 . We have a lot higher to go from here(after the correction). The next leg up will be broad-based among many sectors, and investors should begin to accumulate. Note that gold and stocks can both go up at the same time. Only the Gold miners will go up at a faster pace.



The worst case scenario and actual Target of the correction for the Dow is 14,200 & SPX target is 1520. The bullish targets are exponentially higher. We have extremely strong stock markets. AMAZING in times of recession. But a NORMAL consequence of Money Printing (QE). Markets will continue to go up as long as fresh money is created...and providing there are NO accidents.

Be patient and use trailing stops - Use corrections to accumulate more common stocks, but don't exceed the proportions as set in the Investment Pyramid.

Designated EUROPEAN STOCK markets (see below) are possibly building a long term bottom..others sit in a bull trend ! The Chinese Stock  and Japanese stock markets must be followed up closely....The Japanese Printing press is doing overtime and the freshly created fiat money is spilling into the Japanese stock market. But the Nikkei won't make up for the weak yen. [Japan's PM has vowed to double the money supply]. November 2014, the Chinese Stock Market Index has broken out !

More QE or money printing for the EU, JAPAN and the USA...Because we have communicating financial vessels (see Investment Pyramid) the freshly created capital will continue to seep into the stock markets . The more fiat money, the higher markets! Best performing market is the Johannesburg Stock-Exchange, Caracas (Venezuela) and the Iranese stock exchanges. Stock markets in the USA are poised to raise more....that is until the Printing Press stops...or we have an accident!

Capital fleeing RED Europe will push up north-American markets to record levels and the pressure of freshly created fiat money can be so big that te Dow Jones could well be flying to 30,000 and higher. Important is that  certain European Markets are poised to keep sliding or (best case scenario) will move sidewards while bullish markets it will be for the North- American markets (USA and Canada). It's readily apparent what effect the trillions and trillions of Dollars, Yen's and Pounds central banks have pumped into the system is having on shares. Add to this Capital which is increasingly fleeing Europe and buying American. Basically all stock markets should be crashing under the pressure of the Deleveraging as a consequence of the financial problems the Western World is in, but Authorities are doing their best to avoid a crash of Stock Markets by pumping up Money Supply into Infinity.

Currency controls: when Capital is not allowed to leave the country because of capital controls and investors stop trusting Authorities, STOCKS are often the best way to preserve savings. This is what we had in Zimbabwe and have in South-Africa and Tehran (Iran).

Do know that Authorities have an unlimited amount of Fiat money to play with and that there are over $ 1.4 quadrillion DERIVATIVES which can be used to scare fiat money out but also into Shares, Gold, Silver and Commodities. (and options to buy it) or Treasuries. I assume that similar techniques can be used to keep the stock markets happy. However one may never forget that the ULTIMATE LOCATION where the authorities want your money is in WORTHLESS FIAT TREASURIES and FIAT MONEY (bank deposits, saving accounts. treasuries).

Dow 1900 The 1930's and only 6 months after the BIG CRASH the stock market had recovered half of it's losses. (click on the thumbnail for the long term chart) Stocks are REAL ASSETS. During the Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, stocks were used as money. 1932 we had a bottom for the London Stock Exchange. In less than 4 years or 1936 we had a new all time high....
This is what the SP500 may look like over the coming years. I expect the index to continue to rise to new records UNTIL we have a serious correction or the Great crash of the 21st century.

Uncertainty will grow over the coming months until the Hyper-inflationary depression sets is, and World Stock markets and interest rates start dancing to the tunes of the Zimbabwe scenario: rising Nominal Stock markets because of Quantitative Easing and Hyperinflation...but in the end the Gold and Silver sector will perform a lot better. The stock markets of those countries (ex. Belgium, France) where more TAXATION is expected and those countries running into severe trouble (Greece, Italy, Portugal,...) will off course under perform.What is happening in South Africa (JSE) is an example of what is to be expected for other Stock Market indexes! [there are Capital controls in South Africa]

INDUGOLD pf1

Dow in Gold-CAUTION- BEARISH FLAG

From now on Gold will continue to perform better than the Dow and Stocks!...mind the bearish wedge....it has been activated and means Stocks Markets will come down and the Gold & Silver sector will go up!

INDUGOLD candle2Oct 15, 2018: Expressed in Real Money The CRASH is resuming its bearish trend! Therefore it makes no longer sense to stay in Equities. ..They are safer than Bonds, bank deposits, saving accounts and cash...
  • There is no doubt equities are a lot safer than Bonds. For those who seek income and stability and refuse to affect a larger part of their savings to the Gold/Silver and Energy sector, we have opened an RECESSION PROOF section. All shares in that section have become very expensive!
  • The Markets are NEVER wrong.The trick is to be patient enough to listen what they are saying.
  • The Dow Jones is actually already indicating that the USA is heading for HYPER- INFLATION. (dec 2013)
  • Markets are a WARNING for what is to come: high volatility as insecurity grows!
  • QE III in the EU and the USA has broken the negative trend of most Western Stock markets. But the question is whether it will last?
  • QE  will have a favorable impact on most European Stock Markets as it may avoid further weakness....on condition Capital stops leaving the EURO-ZONE.
  • Best case scenario Stock markets are about to rise expressed in Nominal terms only....because of the Hyper-inflationary depression. But we may see some corrections BEFORE this happens.
  • If and when the credit rating of the USA is lowered, we expect a crisis in the Bond market which will temporary infect the Stock markets. A crashing Bond market, a weaker and/or crashing Fiat currency, a weaker stock market and stronger Gold. This what the citizens of a country will see each time the system starts to fail...until Hyperinflation sets in.
  • When Governments are failing, you sell their Bonds and buy Real Assets or Stocks preferably in some safer country.
  • In our opinion, if something does go wrong, the Chinese and Indian markets won't be able to withstand negative Western world stock markets. After all they are subject to the HOCGood (high order capital goods) rule.

 


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