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Corporate Bonds

Updated Nov 26,  2018 -  Corporate bonds - we have a TOP!

This has become a huge market: Less than a week after the ECB’s announcement, and months before it is to actually buy any bonds, a new record for a euro-denominated corporate bond issue was set on Wednesday when brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev said it was seeking to raise 13.25 billion euros ($14.9 billion).

 Our Opinion: Less dangerous than Treasuries but still a SELL...and a canary in the mine shaft for STOCK MARKETS

DJCBPGold pf1

Corporate bonds in Gold...A DISASTER !!!
Falling out of Huge Bearish Wedge

  • Initial Sell order was given November 18, 2010 - expressed in Gold we still have a BEAR TREND!
  • You have to be out of your mind to hold on to Commercial/Bank bonds!!!
  • Corporate Bonds remain DEBT and are as such not as good as Equities. At the same time, in many cases there are (contrary to Government Bonds and Gilts) some real assets guaranteeing the obligations are met.
  • Bonds issued by Banks and Financials are -off course - as these institutions are virtually Bankrupt, a no go.
  • We have a TOP - SELL !
  • Corporate bonds are BETTER than Government Bonds...but stay away of both.
  • Corporate Bonds are usually the Canary in the Mine...for interest rates.

 corporate debt nov11

DJCB pf1

Short Candle  Chart comments
DJCBP candle1
  • October 18, 2012 - May 9, 2013: topping out ?
  • June 25 - August 6 , 2013: TOP and STOP LOSS ?
  • Feb 11 - March 15 - April 27, 2015:DANGEROUS DOUBLE TOP... !?
  • Jan 28, 2016: Bond bubble is deflating.
  • Jan 24 - Feb 22, 2017: Short term is BEARISH (see candle)
  • May 6: short term bearish
  • June 5 - July 25 - Aug 21- Nov 23 - Dec 29: but still going up...
  • January 18, 2018: trend reversal...brace for HIGHER interest rates.
  • Feb 16 - Apr 3 - June 23 - Sep 3 - Oct 29 - Nov 26: we have a TOP...higher interest rates we shall have.
Long candle
DJCBP candle2

Junk Bonds - W-Bearish TOP formation & we have a TOP!

corporate debt nov11


JNK pf1

Short Candle  Chart comments
JNK candle1
  • Jan 28, 2016: this is a positive breakdown.
  • Mar 30 - April 28: BACKTEST...what happens now will define the future.
  • May 25 - July 13 - Aug 30: LOWER interest rates we shall have!
  • Dec 29: Topping out...
  • Jan 24-Feb 22, 2017: Short term is BEARISH (see candle)
  • March 16 - May 6 - June 5 - July 25 - Aug 21- Nov 23: still Topping out.
  • Dec 29: but we really may see lower in 2018
  • Jan 18, 2018: rising interest rates we shall have.
  • Feb 16 - Apr 3 - June 23 - Sep 3 - Oct 29 - Nov 26: We have a TOP
Long candle
JNK candle2

Note: the 3 month Treasury Bill yields ZERO percent...just like during the Great Depression of the 1930's

bonds spread

Posted June 8, 2009 - Or how to buy Bonds for security and end up with 75 cent penny stocks!!

May 31 (Bloomberg) -- A majority of General Motors bondholders agreed to support a plan to exchange their debt for an ownership stake in the company as high as 25 percent, the New York Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Investors holding a little more than 50 percent of GM’s $27.2 billion of debt agreed to the swap, removing the last roadblock for General Motors to file for bankruptcy protection tomorrow, the paper said.
Bondholders will initially get a 10 percent stake in the company, with warrants for an additional 15 percent, the paper said. GM scheduled a news conference tomorrow in New York, where it’s expected to make its bankruptcy filing, the Times reported.
General Motors stock fell to 75 cents on May 29, below the $1 minimum normally needed to trade on the New York Stock Exchange, and the lowest level in 76 years.

Updated May 12, 2009 - Corporate Bond Woes: Spreads And fundamentals Anticipate The Most Severe High-Yield Default Wave on Record.

Currently, high yield bond spreads anticipate a default rate of 21% in the U.S. Specifically, record bond spreads are not only due to fire sales but find some justification in the deterioration of credit quality down the rating scale. Similarly, the spike in the projected default rate is in line with the deterioration of credit quality of outstanding debt down the rating scale (Moody’s)

Corporate Bonds show a completely different and negative image.

Through the mechanism of Credit Default Swaps any (low) rated corporate bond could be elevated to a AAA level. One only had to buy an insurance. Today the price of this insurance premium is increasingly becoming prohibitive and Financial Institutions which offered these Swaps (AIG) have disappeared.

There is a huge discrepancy between the general price level of Government and Corporate bonds.

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