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Bonds general & USA

Updated May 16, 2022 - Bonds have initiated a BEAR TREND  = we expect HIGHER Interest Rates worldwide!

bond bubble  

             An accident waiting to happen. A time bomb!

Interest Rates LAG on the Inflation Rate: the more inflation, the higher interest rates!
Hiking Interest Rates during recessions makes the Hyperinflationary Depression even worse.

From now on, interest rates will continue to rise...even during the future regime of MORE Money Creation (QE).

The bond market has been showing a BEAR TREND...since 2011, and natural market forces are not taking over yet!?.
IMPORTANT, however, is to understand that the impact on interest rates of QE is exponentially decreasing as the power of manipulation is also fading

  • The critical interest rate level for Japan is 1% - critical level for other Western countries is 1% to -1% (Oct 2021)
  • The soothsayers behind MMT (Magical Monetary Theory) will tell you inflation and rates won’t go up as the central banks won’t let them. Like Santa Claus, that’s a very comforting thought. Unfortunately, natural bond market forces rather than unnatural central bankers ultimately get the last say (and dark laugh) regarding rising rates. With over $18T worth of negative-yielding bonds in circulation and public debt soon passing $30T and climbing, it’s only a matter of time and headlines before someone yells “fire” in a crowded bond theater whose exit door (i.e., liquidity) is the size of a mouse hole. With little to no yield for over-bought risk, bondholders will eventually become bond sellers, and when bonds sell off, their prices tank, and hence their yields skyrocket. Of course, when yields skyrocket, rates spike…and the system collapses.

As Seen in History - what happened in Greece (and Turkey, and Venezuela) is a perfect example of what is to happen with other Treasury Bonds: when the bubble bursts, most of the time, it's too late to act - Five past twelve to move out of Fixed-interest instruments & financial instruments based on bonds (incl. TAK and other bank manufactured products) and into Real Assets (incl shares but excl. Real Estate and ex. financial shares, pension funds, (re)-insurance co's). This wholly MANIPULATED market will be the coffin of many Fortunes...Treasuries = Credit Default Swaps = Bank manufactured products = saving accounts = bank deposits; what good does it do to be safe when on day 1001, you are slaughtered!?.

BND candle2 HYG High yields corp bonds
Vanguard Total Bond Market: STOP LOSS & Backtest done = expect LOWER bonds and HIGHER INTEREST RATES. (May 2023)
High Yield Corporate Bond:  INSANE!

Interest Rate is the derivative of Money is impossible to regulate the economy by RIGGING the interest rates (like Central banks try today).

Utility Index :

UTIL pf1  
Short Candle Chart Comments
UTIL candle1
  • June 9, 2014: markets will go up as long as they PRINT MONEY!
  • Feb 19 - May 18, 2015: bull run
  • Jan 16, 2016: NEW BUY SIGNAL after positive backtest
  • Jan 19, 2017: we will start upleg as interest rates come down.
  • Jan 10, 2018: Potential STOP LOSS = CAUTION
  • Oct 5 - Feb 25, 2019: Resistant Utility Index = the Bull market alive.
  • Jan 16, 2020: new bull leg. The Index is breaking out through the top of its Trending channel. This indicates we have acceleration, and this is the ultimate bullish buy, Climax #5. This is because Central banks have decided on QE4.
  • Jan - Apr 23, 2021: bouncing into the TOP of the Channel and overbought
  • Oct 28: a CRAZY and ARTIFICIAL high level = time bomb!
  • Jan. 8, 2022: Dangerously OVERBOUGHT
  • Apr. 29: Buy Climax! = SELL!
  • May 25: The uptrend is still Bullish and intact.
  • July 8 - Aug. 27: Caution - still OVERBOUGHT!
  • Sep. 28: ???
  • Nov. 8 - Dec. 15 - Feb. 5, 2023: is this the beginning of a BEAR TREND!?
  • Mar. 15: oversold = expect a pause or short-term upleg.
  • May 15: ???
Long Candle
UTIL candle2

The Bond market is one BIG Bubble and a BEAR TREND...A DRAMA will unfold if Central Banks reverse QE...and Central Banks have decided for QE4...

  • Interest rates are bottoming, and beware of the Marginal maximum of interest rate levels. The marginal levels are between 1% and -1% depending on the currency. Hell will break loose once interest rates break these levels on the upside.
  • The 35-year interest cycle peaked in 1981 and bottomed in 2016, as the US 10-year Treasury Note chart below shows. The current yield of 1.59% is not far from the low, but momentum indicators have not confirmed the recent fall in rates. Thus the chart indicates a bullish divergence and, therefore, the potential of rates going up from here. Our proprietary cycle indicators confirm that move.
  • But whether rates go up from here or slightly later is less critical. What is certain is that central banks will lose control of interest rates as bond markets collapse and yield surge when money printing takes off in earnest.
  • The current belief in flight to “safety” by holding government bonds is absolutely ludicrous. At some point in the next year, investors will exit bonds at any price. Nobody will want to hold a toxic instrument issued by a bankrupt government that can neither afford to pay the interest nor the capital without issuing more worthless bonds.

35 year bond cycle

ʘ ʘ ʘ 30-year US Treasuries: a bear trend it is now!

30-year US-Treasury Bond price
Bullish Objective we have "4" historic tops and a bubble!....
Resistance 152
Support 128
Bearish Objective 112
Technical pattern BEAR TREND


USB pf1
Short term candle Chart comment
USB candle1
  • Feb 10, 2015: NEW ALL-TIME HIGH. Unbelievable dangerous!
  • Jan 26, 2016: more TOP building
  • Jan 20 - Feb 22, 2017: the trend is reversing DOWN.
  • Jan 17, 2018: If the 30-year yield rises and stays above 3.05 %, it'll be breaking up, marking a Trend Reversal.
  • Jan 30 - Feb 25, 2019: running in resistance
  • Dec 4 - Jan 16, 2020: impossible to time the coming Bond crash
  • Jan 22 - Feb. 18: 2021: OVERSOLD - expect lower interest rates soon.
  • June 27: Reversal and a BUY.
  • Sep. 2 - Jan. 18, 2022: Interest Rates will artificially be kept LOW until the TIME BOMB (Hyperinflation) explodes...and the natural forces take over from the FED.
  • Feb. 22 - Mar. 22: OVERSOLD and closing in a critical and robust SUPPORT zone. This will probably be THE END of the Higher Interest Rate Mirage.
  • Apr. 29: DANGER - CAUTION - this looks like a STOP LOSS and a mature Double Top formation.
  • May 25: We need a BACKTEST to confirm the top and trend reversal.
  • July 8: Caution - still OVERBOUGHT.
  • Aug. 27: Oversold...up to higher interest rates?!
  • Sep. 28 - Dec. 15 - Feb. 5, 2023: BEAR TREND (but oversold = expect correction before lower!)
  • Mar. 15 - May 15: expect LOWER bonds or higher interest rates!
Long Term candle
USB candle2

ʘ ʘ ʘ 30-year US Treasuries Yield

TYX pf1
Short term Candle Chart comment
TYX candle1  
  • Jan 26, 2016: Bottom!
  • Mar 1 -  Aug 31: Brace for NEGATIVE interest rates !!
  • Jan 20, 2017: the trend is reversing, and better brace for HIGHER interest rates.
  • July 24 - Dec 23: trend interest rates is still BEARISH!
  • Jan 17, 2018: reversal is confirmed once 3.05% is broken and holds.
  • Oct 5 - Jan 30, 2019: Strong Resistance
  • April 1 - May 6: lower interest rates we shall see...aborted breakout!!!
  • Aug 26 - Jan 22. 2021: interest rates are frozen until 2024.
  • Feb 18: OVERBOUGHT....expect lower interest rates soon.
  • Sep. 2 - Feb. 22, 2022: trend remains DOWN = lower interest rates!
  • July 8: Caution - OVERBOUGHT points to LOWER interest rates
  • Aug 28: Oversold + running into a resistance zone = points to LOWER interest rates = Caution.
  • Sep. 28: Bull Trend - expect Higher Interest Rates.....we have a Breakout!
  • Nov. 8 - Dec.15 - Feb. 5, 2023: expect a minor correction, but HIGHER interest rates are now the trend.
  • Mar. 15 - May 15: we may see a minor correction, but interest rates will soon resume their UPTREND.
Long term Candle
TYX candle2

ʘ ʘ ʘ 10 years US Treasuries.

 A Bull Horn, broadening action suggests that a market is OUT of CONTROL!

UST pf1
 Short Candle  Comment
UST candle1
  • Nov. 8: we had a TOP and a oversold. Expect a minor correction. The trend remains STRONGLY BEARISH!
  • Dec. 15 - Feb. 5, 2023: expect lower after the correction...or expect HIGHER interest rates.
  • Mar. 15 - May 16: HIGHER interest rate trend remains intact.
Long Candle 
UST candle2

ʘ ʘ ʘ 10 years US Treasuries.

TNX pf1
Short Candle Comment
TNX candle1
  • Jan 17, 2018: The 10-year yield has already broken the downtrend, and the 2.58% marks a 10-year high.
  • Dec 21 - Feb 25, 2019: NO BREAKOUT....and running into support
  • July 3: up to ZERO and Negative Interest Rates...
  • Aug 26 - Feb 26, 2020: a deja vu of 2008?! yes..but worse.
  • July 21: STOP LOSS and PANIC MODE still ON.
  • Aug 19 - Jan 22, 2021: interest rates are frozen until 2024. (says the FED)
  • May 28: technically speaking, we should see LOWER interest rates.
  • Jan. 8 - May 25, 2022: OVERBOUGHT or Interest rates should edge lower.
  • July 8: OVERSOLD but running into RESISTANCE LEVEL = Caution.
  • Aug 28: Overbought + running into a resistance zone = points to LOWER interest rates = Caution.
  • Sep. 28: BREAKOUT and Bull Trend.
  • Nov. 8 - Dec. 15 - Feb. 5, 2023: Bull Trend = higher interest rates + higher Gold.
  • Mar. 15 - May 16: expect HIGHER interest rates.
Long Candle
TNX candle2

ʘ ʘ ʘ - Municipal bonds are now also bought by Central Banks (FED).

The Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency changed the liquidity requirements for the nation's largest banks. Municipal bonds, long considered safe liquid investments, have been eliminated from the list of high-quality liquid collateral. Assets. That means banks that are the largest holders will have to dump them in favor of the Treasuries and corporate bonds that satisfy the requirement.

March 2016: Less than a week after the ECB’s announcement and months before it is to actually buy any bonds, a new record for a euro-denominated corporate bond issue was set on Wednesday when brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev said it was seeking to raise 13.25 billion euros ($14.9 billion).

“In our view, this highlights the current positive backdrop for primary issuance induced by the ECB’s new easing measures, " particularly the new corporate bond program, credit analysts at Dutch bank ING wrote in a note to clients.

The corporate debt market has benefited indirectly as ECB purchases of government bonds have pushed investors into the corporate market, lowering borrowing rates. In addition to the corporate bond purchases, the ECB also announced a program to pay banks if they step up their lending effectively earlier this month.

MUB pf1
Short term candle   Chart comments
MUB candle1
  • November 19 - March 15, 2015: DANGEROUS CLIMAX TOP...
  • April 26: Municipalities are going belly up, but bonds are at an all-time high!?...something wrong here?
  • Dec 17: we finally have this HISTORIC TOP of the 35-year cycle.
  • Jan 26: 2016: HISTORIC TOP of the 35-year cycle.
  • Mar 1 -  Aug 31: we are about to see NEGATIVE interest rates.
  • Jan 17, 2018: ???
  • Jan 30 - Feb 25, 2019: ??? - back to a historic TOP!?
  • April 1 - May 6: yes...up to the historic top!
  • Dec 4 - Feb 26, 2020: Madness
  • April 22 - Sept 25: Holding Municipal bonds = financial suicide!
  • Oct 26 - Jan. 8,  2022: FROZEN, but still very dangerous!
  • Mar. 22: a Bear Trap of a Trend Reversal?!!
  • Apr. 29 - July 8: This looks like a TOP!
  • Sep. 28: Stop Loss and Bear Trend initiated.
  • Nov. 8 - Dec. 15 - Feb. 5, 2023: Bear Trend is confirmed...expect higher interest rates!
  • Mar. 15 - May 16: expect HIGHER interest rates.
 Long term candle
MUB candle2

Interest Rates have never been so low since the 15th Century (2021-22).

  • Interest Rate is the derivative of Money is impossible to regulate the economy by RIGGING the interest rates (like Central banks try today)
  • Interest Rate cycles are 60-70 years long: 30-35 years up and 30-35 years down.
  • Interest rates will rise, AND so will GOLD! Since 2001, it has been safer, and the yield was better for those holding Gold than Bonds. Or how to lose 70% and more of your savings in a couple of years only by holding on to Bonds.
  • Bonds are certificates of guaranteed confiscation (Ludwig von Mises) and the safest way to lose your savings. 
  • Remember, the Top for Bonds was seen last year, and cycles are 37 years long...and Bonds will indicate the beginning of Hyperinflation.
  • Did you notice how fast Greek interest rates went up from 3% to +10% in only a week!? The 2009 Bond crash started in Europe (Greece) last February 2011 and has started in the USA and gets increasing Media coverage. The Bond crash in the USA has been delayed thanks to what is happening in Europe.
  • The FED, the ECB, the BoJ, and the Bank of England have become the largest single buyer of debt. Quantitative Easing is monetary inflation; such a policy always results in worthless money, worthless bonds, and higher interest rates.
  • If the PF chart shows no Trend Reversal, one should not touch Bonds and Treasuries. Not even with a 10-yard stick.
  • The first phase of the banking crisis has only wiped out bank equities, the second phase is to wipe out deposits, but the last phase will wipe out bondholders, bank equities, and deposits, ...once the Bond market wakes up, it will be a GAME OVER!
zero rates
1981 was a historic top, and 2017 is a historic bottom   Click to enlarge 
interest 1970-2017 Long term interest rates 1700 2018

To the left is the law of supply and demand of Money...or how the price of Money (Interest) is regulated in an open system.

The following rules stop working in times of Hyperinflation:

  • When the money supply goes up, the interest rates should come down.
  • When the money supply comes down, the interest rates should rise.
sellbonds buyGold USTGOLD pf1
Click to enlarge
10-Year Treasury Bonds in Gold ---A CRASH IT IS! ...80% loss since 2000 or 10% loss each year. The downtrend resumed in September 2017. This is a CLEAR, almost SPOTLESS downtrend...or Gold becomes the ultimate Barbaric money, and Bonds and Treasuries worthless.

This is the section where we have been completely wrong (at least for the USA and the EU, where the FED and the ECB have been able to avoid the worst) because no crash has happened so far. This does not mean, however, that a CRASH can happen at any time. Having said this, the TIMING is wrong..the technicals and the fundamentals, however, are not!

sirenMy name is Bond, and I have a license to kill your savings: SELL - SELL! (this is a hazardous and highly manipulated market). Definition of a DISASTER = out-of-control deficit spending + monetization of Debt + artificially low-interest rates. The 2009 Bond crash is happening right now under your eyes: Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and are France and Belgium.....Bonds, mainly Treasuries, remain extremely dangerous, and we maintain our SELL advice. (did you notice how fast the yield on Greek Treasuries went up from 3% to +12%!?) Bonds are artificially kept alive until the rubber band snaps, and investors lose 85% of their savings in months. This is a totally manipulated and rigged market and DEATHLY dangerous.... ---

10year gov.yields 60y cyclePension funds and (re)Insurance companies must invest the bulk of their assets in Treasuries by law. The Treasury SELL-OFF has already begun...

treasuries sell off 2014
TYX yield LT 1980 german yield mar2016
30 y Gov. bond yields UK, EU, US (60-year cycles) Click here for more Bond charts: Italy, Greece, Spain,...
yields june2016 negative rates
Nominal Interest Rates are at record lows, and Real Interest Rates are NEGATIVE and will be pushed deeper into the Negative (June 2016).NOT logic is that there is a disconnect with the Money Supply. Negative Nominal Interest Rates REDUCE the Money Supply and increase its intrinsic value.

The PF and Long term candle charts below are of capital importance as well as the 3% threshold! The higher the debt, the lower the critical level; for Japan the critical level is 1%.

Hyperinflation occurs when a country’s bond market breaks. In other words, the sovereign nation can no longer fund itself. Its bonds fall (yields rise) to the point where the government has to print money or default. Rising interest rates cause interest payments to consume too much of the overall budget. The government or central bank then begins to print money to fund its deficit. Then the citizens start to consume, knowing the currency is rapidly losing value. Demand has nothing to do with the cause or the onset of hyperinflation.

debts20and20deficits202010Why didn't Japan have hyperinflation in the 1990s? It didn't have to monetize its debt. It had the internal savings to be able to finance its budget. The same thing was confirmed in the United States in the 1930s. Even though we devalued the currency, the bond market remained strong into the early 1940s, thus preventing runaway inflation.

The catalyst for severe inflation globally is the breaking of many bond markets. The UK, Japan, and the US cannot finance their budget gaps without monetization. The budget deficits are now more significant and come at a time of reduced global liquidity and tax revenues. Global monetization will lead to severe inflation and hyperinflation.

The other point about severe hyperinflation is that it doesn't rise steadily. The preconditions and causes are subtle as hyperinflation occurs suddenly or dramatically. here for more fundamentals

ʘ ʘ ʘ  - TBT is an instrument for shorting Bonds.

 This is a manufactured financial instrument to SHORT bonds (we don't like it!)
 TBT pf1
Short term Candle  Comment
TBT candle1
  • 10 June 2015: bouncing off the bottom of the trend channel - breaking the 200-day Moving Average (see short candle)
  • Jan 26, 2016: no BOTTOM
  • Jan 20, 2017: but the trend is reversing...
  • Jan 17, 2018: ???
  • Jan 30 - Feb 25, 2019: bouncing up support
  • May 6 - August 19, 2020: more bottom formation
  • Dec 2 - May 27, 2021: FROZEN
  • June 27 - Aug 2: we may have the beginning of a BREAKOUT = which points to higher interest rates.
  • Sep 2 - Jan. 8, 2022: Dangerous BULLISH formation point to HIGHER interest rates.
  • Mar. 22: Breakout or Bull Trap?
  • Apr. 29: It increasingly looks like a BREAKOUT, and if confirmed, we must expect higher interest rates.
  • Sep. 28: A Breakout it is.
  • Nov. 8: Breakout confirmed = expect HIGHER INTEREST RATES!
  • Dec. 15 - Feb. 5, 2023: end of Backtest = expect higher interest rates.
  • May 16: completing a COIL...
Long term Candle
TBT candle2
In a system of Real Money (Gold and Silver), it is the Money that regulates the economic activity and the general level of interest rates.

World Bond markets move in a symphony. We have GLOBAL MARKETS. What happens in Greece directly reflects what happens in the USA, and the UK is a precursor of what is to happen in the rest of the world.

History is being written. Bringing down interest rates and keeping them low is EXACTLY the opposite of what should be done. History repeatedly shows that the authorities are champions of doing the wrong thing at the right time. Ludwig Von Mises explains clearly that one must INCREASE interest rates to INCREASE SAVINGS which are to be used for fundamentally sound INVESTMENTS. Authorities are doing precisely the opposite: low-interest rates increased consumption and created the real estate bubble (dead capital), thereby debasing the savings of the Baby boomers.

Today Authorities do all they possibly can to keep the rates down and the economy alive. It goes so far that the FED buys US treasuries as soon as other buyers fail. Low-interest rates keep the rate of Foreclosure low and troubled Credit Card companies alive. However, as explained by Ludwig von Mises, at a certain point, the market forces make the final decision. The longer interest rates are suppressed, the stronger they will veer up once the time has come.

The chart below: European bonds have also reversed the trend. The earlier breakdown resulted in a false break, and we will now build a double Top. Authorities inject Trillions (Quantitative Easing) into the economy to keep it alive. We know this won't save the system from collapsing in the medium-term run. It NEVER did in the past, and it will not be today. A new boom can be initiated only after the misallocated funds have been cleaned out of the system! By artificially lowering interest rates, the authorities are doing nothing more than increasing the misallocation of funds.

In the long run, interest rates rise due to the inflationary policies of the authorities and banks,' and the latter adjust what we call 'the official interest rate' to the market conditions.

Total Debt:

debt and gdp 2014 Fed insolvent 2014
2014 Total debt versus GDP FED is insolvent
Sep. 2020 Total Debt Oct 2021 Total Debt
global debt 2020 06 18 America finances LT

Per Capita debt Feb 2012

per capita debt feb12

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