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  • The majority is never right. Never, I tell you! That’s one of these lies in society that no free and intelligent man can ever help rebelling against. Who are the people that make up the biggest proportion of the population — the intelligent ones or the fools? I think we can agree it’s the fools, no matter where you go in this world, it’s the fools that form the overwhelming majority - Henrik Ibsen.


  • The mainstream (corporate) media is nothing less than the unofficial accomplice of the banking crime syndicate which is running/ruining our markets and economies. Nowhere is this despicable relationship more apparent than in its deliberate efforts to grossly misinform investors on the critical subject of risk.

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  • The business of investing rationally becomes problematic when market participants are pursuing maximum nominal returns without a second thought as to the real (inflation-adjusted) value of those returns and the location of the savings.


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Bonds general & USA

Updated April 29, 2022 - Our Charts point to a "Trend Reversal". Bonds show a TOP and Stop Loss!

bond bubble  

             An accident waiting to happen. A time bomb!

The bond market is topping out...since 2011 and natural market forces are not taking over yet!?. You cannot predict higher interest rates if you at the same time also predict QE to infinity. QE is the non-economic purchase of government and other debt securities. Therefore as long as QE expands to meet the size of the bond offering, the bond market will stay bullish and interest rates will not rise significantly...
IMPORTANT, however, is to understand that the impact on interest rates of QE is exponentially decreasing as the power of manipulation is also fading

  • The critical interest rate level for Japan is 1% - critical level for other western countries is 1% to -1% (Oct 2021)
  • Once again, the Fed will pretend to be “considering rate adjustments”...but none will come. But with public debt soon passing $30T and climbing, we all know the Fed & ECB will never raise rates this generation, for the simple reason that they can’t afford to. So long as the cost of debt (rates) are stapled to the floor of history, debt levels can equally surpass the record books of history.
  • The soothsayers behind MMT (Magical Monetary Theory) will tell you inflation and rates won’t go up, as the central banks won’t let them. Like Santa Claus, that’s a very comforting thought. Unfortunately, natural bond market forces rather than unnatural central bankers ultimately get the last say (and dark laugh) when it comes to rising rates. With over $18T worth of negative-yielding bonds in circulation, it’s only a matter of time and headlines before someone yells “fire” in a crowded bond theater whose exit door (i.e. liquidity) is the size of a mouse hole. With little to no yield for over-bought risk, bondholders will eventually become bond sellers, and when bonds sell off, their prices tank, and hence their yields skyrocket. Of course, when yields skyrocket, rates spike…and the system collapses.

As Seen in History - what happened in Greece (and Turkey, and Venezuela) is a perfect example of what is to happen with other Treasury Bonds: when the bubble bursts, most of the time, it's too late to act - Five past twelve to move out of Fixed-interest instruments & financial instruments based on bonds (incl. TAK and other bank manufactured products) and into Real Assets (incl shares but excl. Real Estate and ex. financial shares, pension funds, (re)-insurance co's). This is a completely MANIPULATED market and will be the coffin of many Fortunes...Treasuries = Credit Default Swaps = Bank manufactured products = saving accounts = bank deposits,. What good does it do to be safe when on day 1001 you are slaughtered!?.

BND candle2 HYG High yields corp bonds
Vanguard Total Bond Market: this is INSANE
High Yield Corporate Bond: INSANE!

Interest Rate is the derivative of Money is impossible to regulate the economy by RIGGING the interest rates (like Central banks try today).

Utility Index :

UTIL pf1  
Short Candle Chart Comments
UTIL candle1
  • June 9, 2014: markets will go up as long as they PRINT MONEY!
  • Feb 19 - May 18, 2015: bull run
  • Jan 16, 2016: NEW BUY SIGNAL after positive backtest
  • Jan 19, 2017: will start upleg as interest rates come down.
  • Jan 10, 2018 : Potential STOP LOSS = CAUTION
  • Aug 31: Central Banks will do whatever to keep interest rates low!
  • Oct 5 - Feb 25, 2019: Resistant Utility Index = the Bull market alive.
  • Jan 16, 2020: new bull leg. The Index is breaking out through the top of its Trending channel. This indicates we have acceleration and this is the ultimate bullish buy Climax #5. This is because Central banks have decided on QE4.
  • Jan 22, 2021: ???
  • Apr 23: bouncing into the TOP of Channel and overbought = SELL
  • Oct 28: a CRAZY and ARTIFICIAL high level = time bomb!
  • Jan. 8, 2022: Dangerously OVERBOUGHT
  • Feb. 22: Oversold!
  • Mar. 22: dangerously OVERBOUGHT
  • Apr. 29: Buy Climax! = SELL!
Long Candle
UTIL candle2

The Bond market is one BIG Bubble and a TOP...A DRAMA will unfold if Central Banks reverse QE...and Central Banks have decided for QE4...

  • Interest rates are bottoming and beware of the Marginal maximum of interest rate levels. The marginal levels are between 1% and -1% depending on the currency. Hell will break loose once interest rates break these levels on the upside.
  • The 35-year interest cycle peaked in 1981 and bottomed in 2016 as the chart of the US 10-year Treasury Note below shows. The current yield of 1.59% is not far from the low but the recent fall in rates has not been confirmed by momentum indicators. Thus the chart indicates a bullish divergence and therefore the potential of rates going up from here. Our proprietary cycle indicators confirm that move.
  • But whether rates go up from here or slightly later is of less importance. What is certain is that central banks will lose control of interest rates as bond markets collapse and yield surge when money printing takes off in earnest.
  • The current belief in flight to “safety” by holding government bonds is absolutely ludicrous. At some point in the next year or so, investors will exit bonds at any price. Nobody will want to hold a toxic instrument issued by a bankrupt government that can neither afford to pay the interest or the capital without issuing more worthless bonds.

35 year bond cycle

30-year US-Treasury Bond price
Bullish Objective we have 4 historic tops and a bubble!....
Resistance 198
Support 152
Bearish Objective 148
Technical pattern A TOP: End of a 35-year cycle & Time Bomb

USB pf1

Short term candle Chart comment
USB candle1
  • Feb 10, 2015: NEW ALL-TIME HIGH. Unbelievable dangerous!
  • Jan 26, 2016: more TOP building
  • Jan 20 - Feb 22, 2017: the trend is reversing DOWN.
  • Jan 17, 2018: If the 30-year yield rises and stays above 3.05 %, it'll be breaking up marking a Trend Reversal.
  • Aug 31 - Sep 20: Central Banks will keep interest rates low!
  • Jan 30 - Feb 25, 2019: running in resistance
  • July 2 - Oct 26: breaking the resistance and running for the historic top.
  • Dec 4 - Jan 16, 2020: impossible to time the coming Bond crash
  • Aug 19 - Oct 26: The general level of interest rates is frozen until 2024.
  • Jan 22 - Feb 18, 2021: OVERSOLD - expect lower interest rates soon.
  • Mar 14 - Apr 23: Oversold + nearing Strong SUPPORT level.
  • June 27: Reversal and a BUY.
  • Aug 2: uptrend
  • Sep. 2 - Jan. 18, 2022: Interest Rates will artificially be kept LOW until the TIME BOMB (Hyperinflation) explodes...and the natural forces take over from the FED.
  • Feb. 22 - Mar. 22: OVERSOLD and closing in an important and strong SUPPORT zone. This will probably be THE END of the Higher Interest Rate Mirage.
  • Apr. 29: DANGER - CAUTION - this looks like a STOP LOSS and a mature Double Top formation.
Long Term candle
USB candle2

ʘ ʘ ʘ 30 year US Treasuries Yield - critical level for Japan is 1% - critical level for other western countries is  3% (Jan 2018)

TYX pf1
Short term Candle Chart comment
TYX candle1  
  • Jan 26, 2016: Bottom!
  • Mar 1 -  Aug 31: Brace for NEGATIVE interest rates !!
  • Jan 20, 2017: the trend is reversing, and better brace for HIGHER interest rates.
  • July 24 - Dec 23: trend interest rates is still BEARISH!
  • Jan 17, 2018: reversal is confirmed once 3.05% is broken and holds.
  • Oct 5 - Jan 30, 2019: Strong Resistance
  • April 1 - May 6: lower interest rates we shall see...aborted breakout!!!
  • Aug 26 - Jan 22. 2021: This is PANIC MODE & MADNESS - interest rates are frozen until 2024.
  • Feb 18: OVERBOUGHT....expect lower interest rates soon.
  • Mar 14: running into resistance and OVERBOUGHT...max potential level is 2.80% - 3.20%
  • Apr 23 - June 27: expect lower interest rates soon.
  • Sep. 2 - Feb. 22, 2022: trend remains DOWN = lower interest rates!
  • Mar. 22 - Apr. 29: Overbought & Resistance = expect lower interest rates!
Long term Candle
TYX candle2

ʘ ʘ ʘ 10 years US Treasuries Yield - the Bond market is finally still not turning Bearish and one must avoid Bonds as it all becomes EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.

TNX pf1
Short Candle Comment
TNX candle1
  • Jan 17, 2018: The 10-year yield has already broken the downtrend, and the 2.58% marks a 10-year high.
  • Feb 11 - Aug 31: BREAKOUT = expect higher interest rates.
  • Sept 20: Running into IMPORTANT RESISTANCE
  • Dec 21 - Feb 25, 2019: NO BREAKOUT....and running into support
  • April 1 - May 6: and lower interest rates we have
  • July 3: up to ZERO and Negative Interest Rates...
  • Aug 26 - Feb 26, 2020: a deja vu of 2008?! yes..but worse.
  • Mar 17 - June 20: A LOT WORSE....price fell through the floor.
  • July 21: STOP LOSS and PANIC MODE still ON.
  • Aug 19 - Jan 22, 2021: level of interest rates is frozen until 2024. (says the FED)
  • Feb 18 - Mar 14: expect to see LOWER interest rates soon.
  • Apr 23: technically, we don't know ????
  • May 28: technically speaking, we should see LOWER interest rates.
  • Aug 2: Max. Act. Level (MAL) not broken - expect lower.
  • Sep. 2 - Dec. 1: the trend is still DOWN = lower interest rates.
  • Jan. 8 - Apr. 23, 2022: OVERBOUGHT or Interest rates should edge lower.
Long Candle
TNX candle2

ʘ ʘ ʘ - Municipal bonds are now also bought by Central Banks (FED).

The Federal Reserve, along with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, just changed the liquidity requirements for the nation's largest banks. Municipal bonds, long considered safe liquid investments, have been eliminated from the list of high-quality liquid collateral. assets. That means banks that are the largest holders will have to dump them in favor of the Treasuries and corporate bonds that do satisfy the requirement.

March 2016: Less than a week after the ECB’s announcement, and months before it is to actually buy any bonds, a new record for a euro-denominated corporate bond issue was set on Wednesday when brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev said it was seeking to raise 13.25 billion euros ($14.9 billion).

“In our view, this highlights the current positive backdrop for primary issuance induced by the ECB’s new easing measures” and particularly the new corporate bond program, credit analysts at Dutch bank ING wrote in a note to clients.

The corporate debt market has already benefited indirectly as ECB purchases of government bonds have pushed investors into the corporate market, lowering borrowing rates. In addition to the corporate bond purchases, the ECB also announced earlier this month a program to effectively pay banks if they step up their lending.

MUB pf1
Short term candle   Chart comments
MUB candle1
  • November 19 - March 15, 2015: DANGEROUS CLIMAX TOP...
  • April 26: Municipalities are going belly up but bonds are at an all-time high!?...something wrong here?
  • Dec 17: we finally have this HISTORIC TOP of the 35-year cycle.
  • Jan 26: 2016: HISTORIC TOP of the 35-year cycle.
  • Mar 1 -  Aug 31: we are about to see NEGATIVE interest rates.
  • Jan 17, 2018: ???
  • Jan 30 - Feb 25, 2019: ??? - back to a historic TOP!?
  • April 1 - May 6: yes...up to the historic top!
  • July 3 - Aug 26: up to a historic top and higher...the sky is the limit.
  • Dec 4 - Feb 26, 2020: Madness
  • March 17: Municipals actually were WEAKER and are behaving BADLY during this Coronavirus era.
  • April 22 - Sept 25: Holding Municipal bonds = financial suicide!
  • Oct 26 - Jan. 8,  2022: FROZEN but still very dangerous!
  • Feb. 22: Strongly OVERSOLD...expect LOWER interest rates soon.
  • Mar. 22: a Bear Trap of a Trend reversal?!!
  • Apr. 29: This looks like a TOP!
 Long term candle
MUB candle2

Interest Rates have never been so low since the 15th Century.

zero rates
  click to enlarge 
 Interest Rate is the derivative of Money is impossible to regulate the economy by RIGGING the interest rates (like Central banks try today) Long term interest rates 1700 2018

To the left is the law of supply and demand of Money...or how the price of Money (Interest) is regulated in an open system.

When the money supply goes up, the interest rates should come down.

When the money supply comes down, the interest rates should rise. 
sellbonds buyGold interest 1970-2017
 click to enlarge
1981 was a historic top and 2017 is a historic bottom

This is the section where so far we have been completely wrong (at least for the USA - but also for the EU where the FED and the ECB have been able to avoid the worst) because so far no crash happened. This does not mean however that a CRASH can happen at any time. Having said this, the TIMING is wrong..the technicals and the fundamentals, however, are not!

sirenMy name is Bond and I have a license to kill your savings: SELL - SELL - SELL! (this is an extremely dangerous and highly manipulated market). Definition of a DISASTER = out-of-control deficit spending + monetization of Debt + artificially low-interest rates. The 2009 Bond crash is happening right now under your eyes: Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain, are France, Belgium.....Bonds and especially Treasuries remain extremely dangerous and we maintain our SELL advice. (did you notice how fast the yield on Greek Treasuries went up from 3% to +12%!?) Bonds are artificially kept alive until the rubber band snaps and investors lose 85% of their savings in months' time. This is a totally manipulated and rigged market and DEATHLY dangerous.... ---


10 Year Treasury Bonds in Gold ---A CRASH IT IS! ...80% loss since 2000 or 10% loss each year. The downtrend has been resumed in September 2017.

  • This is a CLEAR almost SPOTLESS downtrend...or Gold becomes the ultimate Barbaric money and Bonds and Treasuries worthless.
  • Ever since 2001, it was safer and the yield was better for those holding Gold instead of Bonds. Or how to lose 70% and more of your savings in a couple of years only by holding on to Bonds
  • Merlin is active in the Bond market...and what a wonderful job he's doing... municipalities go broke but their bonds go up!
  • As long as the PF chart shows no Trend Reversal one should not touch Bonds and Treasuries. Not even with a 10-yard stick.
  • Bonds are certificates of guaranteed confiscation (Ludwig von Mises) and the safest way to lose your savings.
  • The first phase of the banking crisis has only wiped out bank equities, the second phase is to wipe out deposits but the last phase will wipe out bondholders, bank equities, deposits, ...once the Bond market wakes up, it will be GAME OVER!
  • The FED, the ECB, the BoJ, and the Bank of England have become the largest single buyer of debt. Quantitative Easing is called but monetary inflation it is....such a policy always results in worthless money, worthless bonds, and higher interest rates.
  • Interest rates will rise AND so will GOLD!
  • Did you notice how fast Greek interest rates went up from 3% to +10% in only a week's time!? The 2009 Bond crash started in Europe (Greece) last February 2011 and has started in the USA and gets increasing Media coverage. The Bond crash in the USA has been delayed thanks to what is happening in Europe'
  • Remember the Top for Bonds has been seen last year and cycles are 37 years long...and Bonds will indicate the beginning of Hyperinflation.

Interest Rate cycles are 60-70 years long: 30-35 years up and 30-35 years down.

10year gov.yields 60y cyclePension funds and (re)Insurance companies must by law invest the bulk of their assets in Treasuries. It is clear we have an ALL-TIME LOW for long-term yields and an ALL-TIME HIGH for Bonds. (click on thumbnails to enlarge) The Treasury SELL-OFF has already on the picture below to enlarge...
treasuries sell off 2014
german yield mar2016
30 y Gov. bond yields UK, EU, US (60-year cycles) Click here for more Bond charts: Italy, Greece, Spain,...
yields june2016 negative rates
Nominal Interest Rates are at record lows and Real Interest Rates are NEGATIVE and will be pushed deeper into the Negative (June 2016).NOT logic is that there is a disconnect with the Money Supply. Negative Nominal Interest Rates actually REDUCE the Money Supply and hereby increase its intrinsic value.

The PF and Long term candle charts below are of capital importance as well as the 3% threshold! The higher the debt, the lower the critical level; for Japan the critical level is 1%.

Hyperinflation occurs when a country’s bond market breaks. In other words, the sovereign nation is no longer able to fund itself. Its bonds fall (yields rise) to the point where the government has to print money or default. Rising interest rates cause interest payments to consume too much of the overall budget. The government or central bank then begins to print money to fund its deficit. Then the citizens start to consume, knowing the currency is rapidly losing value. Demand has nothing to do with the cause or the onset of hyperinflation.

debts20and20deficits202010Why didn't Japan have hyperinflation in the 1990s? It didn't have to monetize its debt. It had the internal savings to be able to finance its budget. The same thing is true in the United States in the 1930s. Even though we devalued the currency, the bond market remained strong into the early 1940s, thus preventing runaway inflation.

The catalyst for severe inflation globally is the breaking of many bond markets. The UK, Japan, and the US won’t be able to finance their budget gaps without the monetization. The budget deficits are now larger and they come at a time of reduced global liquidity and reduced tax revenues. Global monetization will lead to severe inflation and hyperinflation.

The other point to make about severe or hyperinflation is the fact that it doesn't come about steadily. The preconditions and causes are all the more subtle as hyperinflation occurs suddenly or dramatically. here for more fundamentals

ʘ ʘ ʘ  - TBT is an instrument for short Bonds.

 This is a manufactured financial instrument to SHORT bonds (we don't like it!)
 TBT pf1
Short term Candle  Comment
TBT candle1
  • 10 June 2015: bouncing off the bottom of the trend channel - breaking the 200-day Moving Average (see short candle)
  • 6 August-Dec 17: BOTTOM.
  • Jan 26, 2016: no BOTTOM
  • Jan 20, 2017: but the trend is reversing...
  • May 4 - Dec 23: ??? BOTTOM??
  • Jan 17, 2018: ???
  • Jan 30 - Feb 25, 2019: bouncing up support
  • May 6 - August 19, 2020: more bottom formation
  • Oct 26: bottoming...
  • Dec 2 - May 27, 2021: FROZEN
  • June 27 - Aug 2: we may have the beginning of a BREAKOUT = which points to higher interest rates.
  • Sep 2 - Jan. 8, 2022: Dangerous BULLISH formation point to HIGHER interest rates.
  • Feb. 22: Overbought - expect LOWER interest rates.
  • Mar. 22: Breakout or Bull Trap?
  • Apr. 29: it more and more looks like a BREAKOUT and if confirmed, we must expect higher interest rates.
Long term Candle
TBT candle2
In a system of Real Money (Gold and Silver) it is the Money that regulates the economic activity and the general level of interest rates.

World Bond markets move in a symphony. We have GLOBAL MARKETS. What happens in Greece is the direct reflection of what happens in the USA and the UK is a precursor of what is to happen in the rest of the world.

History is being written. Bringing down interest rates and keeping them low is EXACTLY the opposite of what should be done. History shows over and over again that the authorities are champions for doing the wrong thing at the right time. Ludwig Von Mises explains clearly that one must INCREASE interest rates to INCREASE SAVINGS which are to be used for fundamentally sound INVESTMENTS. Authorities are doing exactly the opposite: low-interest rates increased consumption and created the real estate bubble (dead capital) thereby debasing the savings of the Baby boomers.

Today Authorities do all they possibly can to keep the rates down and the economy alive. It goes so far that the FED buys US treasuries as soon as other buyers fail. Low-interest rates keep the rate of Foreclosure low and troubled Credit Card companies alive. However, as explained by Ludwig von Mises, at a certain point the market forces take the final decision. The longer interest rates are suppressed, the stronger they will veer up once the time has come.

The chart below: European bonds have also reversed the trend. The earlier breakdown resulted in a false break and will now build a double Top. Authorities are injecting Trillions (Quantitative Easing) into the economy in order to keep it alive. We know this won't - in the medium-term run - save the system from collapsing. It NEVER did in the past and it will not today. Only after the misallocated funds have been cleaned out of the system a fresh boom can be initiated! By artificially lowering interest rates, the authorities are doing nothing more than increasing the misallocation of funds.

In the long run, interest rates rise as a consequence of the inflationary policies of the authorities and banks' and the latter adjust what we call 'the official interest rate' to the conditions of the market.

Total Debt:

debt and gdp 2014 Fed insolvent 2014
2014 Total debt versus GDP FED is insolvent
Sep. 2020 Total Debt Oct 2021 Total Debt
global debt 2020 06 18 America finances LT

Per Capita debt Feb 2012

per capita debt feb12

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