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Silver

July 12, 2024: Silver is Gold on steroids...and costs 12.5% more in China!


"This is the price evolution of FIAT PAPER SILVER! - Physical Silver sells at a 40% premium!"

The silver market is tiny. About 700 million oz. of silver is mined each year worldwide, about 200 million oz. is recycled, and about 100 million oz. is from "other" sources, like governments. That's the supply side. At $20/oz., this is a $20 billion annual market.

Important:  this is the price evolution of FIAT-PAPER-SILVER and NOT of PHYSICAL SILVER!

Silver-Gold ratio long-term

Click here for HISTORIC SILVER.

  • JPMorgan holds over $19 billion of derivatives, but only $1 billion of silver stock is available!?
  • A gold coin of 1 ounce holds the purchasing power of 1 kg of silver.
  • Silver is often in backwardation. This happens when the future contract is cheaper than the SPOT (physical). Today, the premium of PHYSICAL-SPT Silver is more or less +40% over the Futures price.
  • Historically, Silver corrections average 40%.
  • There is a disconnect between the futures market (paper market) and the physical silver market.
  • Those who buy silver ETFs and Silver contracts can also keep the paper money they have almost the same: if you buy silver, you MUST request physical delivery AND store it out of political reach. If you don't, THEY will take it from you. All those playing the paper products are sure of one thing. Even if the market fluctuations don't take away, they will eventually lose it all.
  • Silver is in the process of digesting the 1981 $30 - $48 top pattern.
    After the breakout, this zone will become a LONG TERM support zone.

SLV ETF strip story: BREAKOUT  [SLV is an ETF & should not be bought as an investment !] -

SLV candle1 SLV pf1 SLV pf2
July 12: Breakout
July 12: Target $32
July 12: Pattern X
Breakout & strong buy Aug 28, 2017: PF Targets
SLV is a Ponzi scheme and theft: they have a structural shortage of physical silver.

Breakout of halfway bottom consolidation - the medium-term target is $48, and the long-term target is $ 145!

This action explains the HUGE FLAG formation"The Chinese are divesting out of paper right now.  So, we see a huge uptick in euro physical silver purchases and dollar silver purchases.  When Silver took out $33, many physical orders were filled. The Chinese are doing the same thing in the silver market as in the gold market, with massive accumulation on dips.  It is also important to note that the local traders in silver are short and nervous.  Everyone is short silver, so the market can move violently higher when it turns.  When silver reverses, it will be the one that leads the market higher."

                      $-SILVER

Silver - with PF Targets
Bullish objective $58-$68- $120
Resistance $28
Major Support $ 20.00
Bearish Objective  $ 14.00
Technical pattern Big Breakout and Backtest!
The price of physical silver.

 

Short candle Chart comment
Silver candle1
  • Jan 5, 2016: more bullish technicals - see the short candle.
  • Jan 4, 2017: fresh upleg + backtest completed
  • Jan 13, 2018: Screaming Buy
  • Jan 3, 2019: Will the overhead resistance be broken?
  • Jan 6 - Feb 4, 2020: Fresh upleg
  • Dec 2 - Jan 2, 2021: Bullis Flag = SCREAMING BUY
  • Jan 8: JPMorgan shorted more than a year of mining production.
  • Aug 9 - Apr. 6, 2022: SUPER-BUY - Targets are: $28 - $38 - $48
  • May 4 - July 12: The newly calculated Target 1 is $79  or +243%!
  • Oct. 1 - Oct. 15: SUPER BUY - Physical Silver is 40% more expensive than Fiat Paper Silver.
  • Nov. 5 - Dec. 3 - Jan. 7, 2023: Breakout and Buy.
  • Feb. 14: STRONG BUY [Feb. 15: spinning bottom]
  • Nov. 5 - Jan 6, 2024: About to start the BIG UPLEG!?
  • Feb. 6 - Mar. 1: expect a big breakout before the end of April 2024.
  • Mar. 7: the beginning of the big breakout?
  • Apr. 3 - Apr. 13: Big Breakout.
  • Apr. 23 - May 1st: Backtrest
  • May 17 - July 12: and bull run
Long term candle
SILVER candle2

The Bearish Triangle is now a Bullish Flag. The formation formed at this time will propel Silver to about $ 88. That is after the $48 has been broken to the upside and tested.

SILVER monthLT
Strong BUY Strong BUY Strong BUY (month LT)
Click to enlarge. The first chart was published in 2017. All charts are very bullish.

Silver expressed in Euro

€-Silver
Bullish objective € 32.00
Resistance € 24.00
Support € 18.00
Bearish objective € 14
Technical pattern It's a new bull run.
Big Breakout + Backtest!

Short term candle
Chart comment
  • Jan 4, 2016: Silver should be the BIGGEST winner of 2016!
  • Jan 4-Feb 17, 2017: BULL RUN + backtest completed
  • Jan 13 - Apr 13, 2018: Screaming Buy: Mind the 2nd upleg
  • Jan 3, 2019: Will the overhead resistance be broken?
  • Dec 27 - Feb 4, 2020: Fresh upleg
  • Dec 2: end of the BACKTEST and a Screaming BUY.
  • Jan 2, 2021: Target is € 28, € 32
  • Jan 8: JPMorgan dumps more than an entire year of mining production.
  • Aug 9 - July 12, 2022: SUPER-BUY! The target is €32
  • Nov. 5 - Dec. 3 - Jan. 7, 2023: Breakout and Buy.
  • June 10 - Sep. 26 - Oct. 2: SCREAMING BUY.
  • Nov. 5 - Jan 6, 2024: About to start the BIG UPLEG!?
  • Feb. 6 - Mar. 2: Powder Keg...expect a big breakout before the end of April '24.
  • Mar. 7: the beginning of the big breakout?
  • Apr. 3 - Apr. 13: Big Breakout.
  • Apr. 23 - May 1st: Backtest
  • May 17: and bull run
  • June 17 - July 12: BUY
Long term candle
eSilver candle2

Silver expressed in Swiss Francs -

  Bullish Objective FS 34
Resistance FS 24 - 26
Support FS 18
Bearish Objective FS 14
Technical pattern Beginning of a new bull trend
Big Breakout & Backtest.

Short term candle Chart comment
    • Jan 4, 2016: Silver should be the BIGGEST winner.
    • Jan 4-Feb 17, 2017: fresh upleg + backtest completed
    • Jan 13 - Apr 13, 2018: Screaming Buy
    • Jan 3, 2019: Will the overhead resistance be broken?
    • Dec 28 - Feb 4, 2020: The beginning of a new upleg.
    • Jan 2021: Target is FS 28 - FS 32
    • Jan 8: JPMorgan dumped more than an entire year of mining production.
    • Aug 9 - July 12, 2022:  SUPER-BUY + strongly oversold! The target is FS 34
    • Oct. 1 - Oct.15: SUPER BUY - Physical Silver is 40% more expensive than Fiat Paper Silver.
    • Nov. 5 - Dec. 3 - Jan. 7, 2023: Breakout and Buy.
    • June 10 - Sep. 26 - Oct. 2: SUPER BUY!
    • Nov. 5 - Jan 6, 2024: About to start the BIG UPLEG!?
    • Feb. 6 - Mar. 2: Powder Keg...we expect a big breakout before the end of April 2024.
    • Mar. 7 - Apr. 13: the beginning of the big breakout!
    • Apr. 23: Backtrest
    • May 17: and bull run
    • June 17 - July 12: BUY
Long Term candle
CHFSilver candle2

Only retarded investors don't get this! Investing is NO CASINO; this information is still actual, even in 2019.

€ Silver month CHF Silver month
The price goes up when time is up: Time is UP (Nov 2017 - Feb 2019)
eSILVER special1 CHFSILVER special1
Strong Buy. Strong Buy.

A perfect technical picture we had. See the 2004 breakout out of a vast bullish triangle. In the 20 years (1985/2004), the resistance line has become colossal support. The first bull run was interrupted in 2008 when Lehman Bros collapsed, and we had a substantial deleveraging. [Whether Lehman is to be blamed or not is another chapter.]

During the deleveraging action, the BREAKOUT level was positively tested (indicating we now have a confirmed BULL TREND). After the test, silver geysers again reached the top of its long-term trend channel. Silver goes parabolic, or it needs to consolidate sideward (I think the latter will happen).

For this reason, I expect Gold to perform better this year than Silver. Silver is the poor man's gold. Silver will be strong if people are insecure, and we sit with this Fiat paper money. We have a paradigm shift: what we live in today is not the ordinary recession we lived through during previous cycles. By now, this should have become clear to most. The crisis asks for extraordinary measures and exceptional protection.

Silver is one way to ensure your savings. It is a REAL ASSET, REAL MONEY. (The alternative is to buy Government bonds that yield nothing, keep your money in Bank accounts that yield nothing, or stack it under your mattress where it will be inflated away). At this time, Silver sits in a congestion zone....the bigger the zone, the larger the subsequent run.


Updated March 15, 2010

$-Silver objective for Wave II is $ 42,50 - €-Silver objective for Wave II is € 35: Silver has finished the 1st Wave cycle 1,2,3,4,5, and the subsequent ABC correction. Logically, it will reverse and start its Wave II cycle in the wake of Gold. The objective is $ 42,50, or 5 times the low.

  • April story: Silver and Gold usually put in a bottom in March and a top in April. On March 18th, we had a bottom for Gold. If one misses the March bottom, one usually has to wait for the Summer to see a fresh buying opportunity.
  • Silver moving averages have now also confirmed their Golden cross.
  • Gold and Silver mines are strong, indicating higher prices for Gold and Silver are to come. Several Gold and Silver stocks have broken above their 200-day moving average.

Updated December 20, 2008

Meanwhile, the “paper” silver price was recently nominally taken down from just above $20/oz. At around $13/oz., it is increasingly hard to find physical Silver at any price. And if one can find it, one has to pay as much as $4 or so over the spot, i.e., around $17/oz, on average. Such is the ludicrous result of living in an Interventional Universe.

Manipulation?... The least one can say is that this is a weird happening.

Last week, widely regarded silver analyst Ted Butler reported on recent developments during the July 1 – August 5, 2008 time period in the precious metals complex [specifically, open-interest data in COMEX futures].

Butler’s work shows that as of July 1, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 6,199 contracts of COMEX silver (30,995,000 ounces). As of August 5, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 33,805 contracts of COMEX silver (169,025,000 ounces), an increase of more than five-fold. This is the most significant position by U.S. banks I can ever find in the data. Between July 14 and August 15, the price of COMEX silver declined from a peak high of $19.55 (basis September) to a low of $12.22 for a decline of 38%.

For gold, 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 7,787 contracts (778,700 ounces) in July and 86,398 contracts (8,639,800 ounces) in August, an eleven-fold increase and coinciding with a gold price decline of more than $150 per ounce. As with silver, this is the most significant short position ever held by US banks in the data listed on the C FTC’s site. Click here for more.


Updated November 20, 2008 - Time to buy silver!


€ Silver bar monthly & daily charts-: Will the Central banks really convince the Herd that it is better to keep Paper Fiat Money and Government bonds instead of Real Money? Do the markets erroneously think we are going for a cycle of DEFLATION? Or is this a bear trap and an abnormal shakeout of the Bulls? Again, with the actual fundamentals, I cannot imagine we have entered a Bear Market cycle. The daily bar chart shows a nice reversal. Time to buy!

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